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The least squares prediction equation provides predicted values \(\hat{y}\) with the strongest possible correlation with \(y,\) out of all possible prediction equations of that form. Based on this property, explain why the multiple correlation \(R\) cannot decrease when you add a variable to a multiple regression model.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Adding a variable to a regression model cannot decrease \(R\) because it can only maintain or increase the explained variance.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Least Squares Regression

The least squares regression method aims to find the line of best fit for a set of data by minimizing the sum of the squares of the residuals (the distances from each point to the line). This method provides a prediction equation, denoted as \(\hat{y} = a + b_1x_1 + b_2x_2 + ... + b_nx_n\).
02

Interpreting Correlation in Regression

Correlation measures the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables. In multiple regression, the squared multiple correlation coefficient, \(R^2\), represents the proportion of the variance in the dependent variable that is predictable from the independent variables.
03

Effect of Adding a New Variable

When a new variable is added to a regression model, the least squares method calculates new coefficients to incorporate this variable. This can potentially capture more variance in the dependent variable, leading to an increased or unchanged \(R^2\).
04

Mathematical Risk of Decreasing R

Mathematically, adding a new variable cannot decrease the \(R^2\) because \(R^2\) measures the proportion of variance explained. With more predictors, the model has more dimensions to explain variance, thereby either increasing or maintaining the \(R^2\).
05

Conclusion on Multiple Correlation

Therefore, by the nature of least squares and correlation, when a variable is added to a multiple regression model, it either improves the model fit or does nothing, ensuring the multiple correlation \(R\) cannot decrease.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Least Squares Regression
Least Squares Regression is a popular method for finding the best-fitting line through a set of data points. It does this by minimizing the sum of the squared differences between each data point and the line itself. In simple terms, it tries to make the data points as close to the line as possible. The equation resulting from least squares regression is usually in the form \[ \hat{y} = a + b_1x_1 + b_2x_2 + \ldots + b_nx_n \],where \(\hat{y}\) is the predicted value, \(a\) is the y-intercept, and \(b_1, b_2, \ldots, b_n\) are the coefficients for the independent variables \(x_1, x_2, \ldots, x_n\).
These coefficients are calculated so that the line best represents the data, balancing any over-predictions with under-predictions across all points collected.
Correlation Coefficient
The Correlation Coefficient, denoted as \(r\), is a measure of the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables.
It can range from -1 to 1, where:
  • -1 means a perfect negative linear relationship,
  • 0 indicates no linear relationship, and
  • 1 represents a perfect positive linear relationship.
In the context of regression, the correlation coefficient helps to describe how well the data points fit along the predicted line. Larger absolute values of \(r\) indicate stronger relationships. In multiple regressions, although individual pairwise correlation values are less relevant, understanding the relationship between predictors and the dependent variable is key for interpreting the regression model.
Multiple Correlation
When dealing with multiple regression, the concept of Multiple Correlation comes into play. Here, we talk about \(R\), the multiple correlation coefficient, which measures the strength of the relationship between the dependent variable and multiple independent variables.
Unlike the simple correlation coefficient, \(R\) takes into account how these independent variables, in combination, affect the dependent variable. The square of \(R\) is known as \(R^2\), which indicates the proportion of the variance in the dependent variable that is predictable from the independent variables. Adding a new variable into a multiple regression usually increases or maintains the \(R^2\), never decreasing it, since it allows the model to possibly capture more variance.
Variance Explained
Variance Explained, often expressed as \(R^2\), is a principle gauge of the effectiveness of a regression model.
When we mention that a model "explains" variance, it implies that the model can account for a certain proportion of the variability seen in the data set. For example, an \(R^2\) of 0.70 suggests that 70% of the variance in the output variable can be explained by the inputs used in the model.
This is a powerful concept because it provides insight into how well the regression model predicts the outcome. When a new predictor is added, the sum of squared deviations decreases, meaning that either more variance is explained or the model remains the same, ensuring that the Variance Explained (\(R^2\)) does not decrease.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A study of horseshoe crabs found a logistic regression equation for predicting the probability that a female crab had a male partner nesting nearby using \(x=\) width of the carapace shell of the female crab (in centimeters). The results were Predictor Coef Constant -12.351 Width \(\quad 0.497\) a. For width, \(Q 1=24.9\) and \(Q 3=27.7\). Find the estimated probability of a male partner at \(\mathrm{Q} 1\) and at Q3. Interpret the effect of width by estimating the increase in the probability over the middle half of the sampled widths. b. At which carapace shell width level is the estimated probability of a male partner (i) equal to 0.50 , (ii) greater than 0.50 , and (iii) less than \(0.50 ?\)

Multiple regression is used to model \(y=\) annual income using \(x_{1}=\) number of years of education and \(x_{2}=\) number of years employed in current job. a. It is possible that the coefficient of \(x_{2}\) is positive in a bivariate regression but negative in multiple regression. b. It is possible that the correlation between \(y\) and \(x_{1}\) is 0.30 and the multiple correlation between \(y\) and \(x_{1}\) and \(x_{2}\) is 0.26 . c. If the \(F\) statistic for \(\mathrm{H}_{0}: \beta_{1}=\beta_{2}=0\) has a \(\mathrm{P}\) -value \(=0.001,\) then we can conclude that both predictors have an effect on annual income. d. If \(\beta_{2}=0,\) then annual income is independent of \(x_{2}\) in bivariate regression.

In Example \(2,\) the prediction equation between \(y=\) selling price and \(x_{1}=\) house size and \(x_{2}=\) number of bedrooms $$\text { was } \hat{y}=60,102+63.0 x_{1}+15,170 x_{2}$$ a. For fixed number of bedrooms, how much is the house selling price predicted to increase for each square foot increase in house size? Why? b. For a fixed house size of 2000 square feet, how does the predicted selling price change for two, three, and four bedrooms?

At the \(x\) value where the probability of success is some value \(p,\) the line drawn tangent to the logistic regression curve has slope \(\beta p(1-p)\). a. Explain why the slope is \(\beta / 4\) when \(p=0.5\). b. Show that the slope is weaker at other \(p\) values by evaluating this at \(p=0.1,0.3,0.7,\) and \(0.9 .\) What does the slope approach as \(p\) gets closer and closer to 0 or \(1 ?\) Sketch a curve to illustrate.

Chapter 10 presented methods for comparing means for two groups. Explain how it's possible to perform a significance test of equality of two population means as a special case of a regression analysis.

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