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Suppose that in a certain metropolitan area, \(90 \%\) of all households have cable TV. Let \(x\) denote the number among four randomly selected households that have cable TV. Then \(x\) is a binomial random variable with \(n=4\) and \(p=0.9\). a. Calculate \(p(2)=P(x=2)\), and interpret this probability. b. Calculate \(p(4)\), the probability that all four selected households have cable TV. c. Determine \(P(x \leq 3)\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The probability that exactly 2 out of 4 households have cable TV is the value of \( P(x=2) \) which is calculated from the binomial formula. b. The probability that all 4 households have cable TV is the value of \( P(x=4) \) corresponding with the binomial formula. c. The probability that up to three households have cable TV is the sum of values of \( P(x=0), P(x=1), P(x=2), P(x=3) \), as a direct result of the addition rule for mutually exclusive events.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate \( P(x=2) \)

To calculate the probability that exactly 2 out of 4 households have cable TV, substitute \( n=4 \), \( x=2 \), and \( p=0.9 \) into the binomial formula: \[ P(2) = \binom{4}{2} * (0.9^{2}) * (0.1^{2}) \] Calculate the value to get the probability.
02

Calculate \( P(x=4) \)

To calculate the probability that all 4 households have cable TV, substitute \( n=4 \), \( x=4 \), and \( p=0.9 \) into the binomial formula: \[ P(4) = \binom{4}{4} * (0.9^{4}) * (0.1^{0}) \] Calculate the value to get the probability.
03

Calculate \( P(x \leq 3) \)

To calculate the probability that 3 or fewer households have cable TV, sum the probabilities of \( x=0, 1, 2, 3 \). This entails substituting these different values of x with \( n=4 \) and \( p=0.9 \) into the binomial formula and summing the results: \[ P(x \leq 3) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) \] Calculate these values to get the probability.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Calculations
The calculation of probabilities is a core component of understanding the binomial distribution. Here, we work with the concept of likelihoods attached to possible outcomes of a random experiment. Specifically, when dealing with binomial probability calculations, you often use the formula: \[ P(x=k) = \binom{n}{k} * (p^k) * (1-p)^{n-k} \]where:
  • \( n \) is the total number of trials (or households, in this context).
  • \( k \) represents the number of successful trials we are interested in.
  • \( p \) is the probability of success on a single trial.
For example, if you want to find the probability that exactly two out of four households have cable TV, you'd substitute \( n=4 \), \( k=2 \), and \( p=0.9 \) in this formula.
This will give you a precise number representing the chance of that exact scenario happening. Understanding this process allows you to systematically calculate the probabilities for any number of successes in a fixed number of trials. This is essential when interpreting real-world problems and determining how likely certain events are to occur.
Random Variables
In probability and statistics, a random variable is a numerical representation of the outcomes of a random phenomenon. In the example we are discussing, \( x \) is the random variable showing how many households have cable TV in a sample of four households. Since \( x \) can take several different values (from 0 to the number of trials \( n \)), it is crucial for our probability calculations.
A binomial random variable, like \( x \) here, is specifically used when each trial in an experiment can result in just two possible outcomes - success (household has cable TV) or failure (does not have).
  • The possible outcomes for \( x \) here are discrete, meaning they can only be whole counts (0, 1, 2, 3, or 4).
  • The distribution of \( x \) reflects the probability of each of these events occurring.
Grasping the concept of a random variable, especially in a binomial context, is fundamental as it connects abstract statistical models to everyday events. It helps in analyzing data which is crucial for making data-driven decisions or predictions.
Statistical Interpretation
Statistical interpretation is a critical skill for making sense of numerical data and probabilities. When we calculate probabilities like \( P(x=2) \), we're interpreting what these numbers mean in the real world. Knowing that the probability of exactly two households having cable TV is a specific figure, for example 0.0486, everyday language could translate this to saying there's about a 4.86% chance of this happening.
  • Such predictions can assist in evaluating the effectiveness or reach of cable distribution in the area.
  • Interpreting \( P(x \leq 3) \) as opposed to \( P(x=3) \) helps determine the likelihood of different scenarios or cumulate chances over a range of outcomes.
Statistical interpretation involves not just calculating numbers, but connecting these to tangible results, making the mathematics relevant to practical and impactful applications. This understanding aids in conveying information clearly to decision-makers, or when forecasting trends within data.

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