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Suppose that an individual is randomly selected from the population of all adult males living in the United States. Let \(A\) be the event that the selected individual is over 6 feet in height, and let \(B\) be the event that the selected individual is a professional basketball player. Which do you think is larger, \(P(A \mid B)\) or \(P(B \mid A) ?\) Why?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that a randomly chosen professional basketball player is over 6 feet tall (\(P(A \mid B)\)) is larger than the probability that a randomly chosen individual who is over 6 feet tall is a professional basketball player (\(P(B \mid A)\)). This is because the proportion of professional basketball players who are over 6 feet tall is very high, while the proportion of people over 6 feet tall who are professional basketball players is relatively small.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Probabilities

First, let's think about what these probabilities mean:\n\n1. \(P(A \mid B)\) is the probability that a randomly chosen professional basketball player is over 6 feet tall. Since professional basketball tends to favor taller individuals, this probability is likely quite high.\n\n2. \(P(B \mid A)\) is the probability that a randomly chosen individual who is over 6 feet tall is a professional basketball player. Although being tall could certainly be an advantage in basketball, there are many individuals who are over 6 feet tall and are not professional basketball players. Therefore, this probability is probably quite low.
02

Comparing the Probabilities

After understanding the two probabilities, comparing them will lead to a relatively clear result. \(P(A \mid B)\) is very likely to be larger than \(P(B \mid A)\). This is because that within the population of professional basketball players, the proportion that is over 6 feet is large, while within the population of males over 6 feet, the proportion that are professional basketball players is relatively small.
03

Understanding the Reason

The main reason for this difference in the probabilities boils down to the size of different populations. The total population of people over 6 feet is much larger than the total population of professional basketball players. Hence, even though being over 6 feet tall is a common characteristic among professional basketball players, professional basketball players only make up a small fraction of all people who are over 6 feet tall.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Comparison
When we talk about probability comparison, we aim to understand which event is more likely to happen within a given context. In our exercise, we examine two conditional probabilities:
  • \( P(A \mid B) \): The probability that a professional basketball player is over 6 feet tall.
  • \( P(B \mid A) \): The probability that someone over 6 feet tall is a professional basketball player.
In probability comparison, one determines which probability is higher by understanding the context. Here, professional basketball players are almost always above 6 feet, making \( P(A \mid B) \) quite high. However, there are many tall men who are not basketball players, making \( P(B \mid A) \) comparatively lower. Hence, \( P(A \mid B) \) is larger than \( P(B \mid A) \). This context shows that professional basketball players mostly come from a small population of tall individuals, not vice-versa.
Population Proportions
Understanding population proportions is key to interpreting probabilities. In our context, the population of all adult males taller than 6 feet is considerably larger than the population of professional basketball players. The comparison between these two groups helps in visualizing the probabilities:
  • The tall male population includes individuals with various occupations and professions, but only a few are basketball players.
  • Meanwhile, the basketball players population is a subset, and nearly all of them are tall.
Thus, when we assess population proportions, we see that within the player population, the share that meets the condition \( A \) (being over 6 feet tall) is vast. Conversely, within the tall population, the share that meets \( B \) (being a basketball player) is small. This proportion indicates why \( P(A \mid B) \) is larger than \( P(B \mid A) \).
Probability Theory
Probability theory helps us calculate and understand chances. It can represent relationships between events, like in this exercise, using conditional probabilities. The core of probability theory in this instance revolves around conditional probabilities:
  • \( P(A \mid B) \) signifies the likelihood of a basketball player being tall, which is nearly guaranteed, as height is a common trait among players.
  • \( P(B \mid A) \) shows the chance of a tall man being a basketball player, which is slim because tall individuals frequently engage in many other professions.
These probabilities utilize the foundational principles of probability theory: studying events and their occurrences. By using this theory, we can approach comparisons and understand the roles of different populations. This understanding aids in drawing the correct conclusions about which probability is greater, illustrating how probability theory can combine nuanced understanding with mathematical logic.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A Gallup survey found that \(46 \%\) of women and \(37 \%\) of men experience pain on a daily basis (San Luis Obispo Tribune, April 6,2000 ). Suppose that this information is representative of U.S. adults. If a U.S. adult is selected at random, are the events selected adult is male and selected adult experiences pain on a daily basis independent or dependent? Explain.

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A large cable TV company reports the following: \- \(80 \%\) of its customers subscribe to its cable TV service \- \(42 \%\) of its customers subscribe to its Internet service \- \(32 \%\) of its customers subscribe to its telephone service \(25 \%\) of its customers subscribe to both its cable TV and Internet service \(21 \%\) of its customers subscribe to both its cable TV and phone service \- \(23 \%\) of its customers subscribe to both its Internet and phone service \- \(15 \%\) of its customers subscribe to all three services Consider the chance experiment that consists of selecting one of the cable company customers at random. Find and interpret the following probabilities: a. \(P(\) cable TV only \()\) b. \(P(\) Internet \(\mid\) cable \(\mathrm{TV})\) c. \(P\) (exactly two services) d. \(P\) (Internet and cable TV only)

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Each time a class meets, the professor selects one student at random to explain the solution to a homework problem. There are 40 students in the class, and no one ever misses class. Luke is one of these students. What is the probability that Luke is selected both of the next two times that the class meets? (Hint: See Example 5.8 )

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