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A simple random sample of size \(n\) is drawn from a population that is known to be normally distributed. The sample variance, \(s^{2}\) is determined to be 12.6 . (a) Construct a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for \(\sigma^{2}\) if the sample size, \(n,\) is 20 (b) Construct a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for \(\sigma^{2}\) if the sample size, \(n\), is \(30 .\) How does increasing the sample size affect the width of the interval? (c) Construct a \(98 \%\) confidence interval for \(\sigma^{2}\) if the sample size, \(n\), is 20. Compare the results with those obtained in part (a). How does increasing the level of confidence affect the width of the confidence interval?

Short Answer

Expert verified
90% CI for \sigma^2 with n=20: (7.94, 23.70); n=30: (8.59, 22.77). 98% CI for \sigma^2 with n=20: (6.62, 26.89). Increasing sample size narrows the interval; higher confidence level widens it.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Chi-Square Critical Values for 90% CI, n=20

Find the chi-square critical values \(χ^2_{0.05, 19}\) and \(χ^2_{0.95, 19}\) using chi-square distribution table. For a 90% confidence interval with 19 degrees of freedom (df = n-1): \(χ^2_{0.05, 19} = 10.117\) and \(χ^2_{0.95, 19} = 30.144\).
02

Calculate Confidence Interval for \sigma^2, n=20

Using the formula \[\left( \frac{(n-1) s^2}{χ^2_{0.95, n-1}}, \frac{(n-1) s^2}{χ^2_{0.05, n-1}} \right) \], substitute s^2 = 12.6, n = 20: \[\left( \frac{19 \times 12.6}{30.144}, \frac{19 \times 12.6}{10.117} \right) = (7.94, 23.70) \].
03

Calculate Chi-Square Critical Values for 90% CI, n=30

Find the chi-square critical values \(χ^2_{0.05, 29}\) and \(χ^2_{0.95, 29}\) using chi-square distribution table. For a 90% confidence interval with 29 degrees of freedom (df = n-1): \(χ^2_{0.05, 29} = 16.047\) and \(χ^2_{0.95, 29} = 42.557\).
04

Calculate Confidence Interval for \sigma^2, n=30

Substitute s^2 = 12.6 and n = 30: \[\left( \frac{29 \times 12.6}{42.557}, \frac{29 \times 12.6}{16.047} \right) = (8.59, 22.77) \]. The interval is narrower than when n = 20.
05

Calculate Chi-Square Critical Values for 98% CI, n=20

Find chi-square critical values for a 98% confidence interval with 19 degrees of freedom: \(χ^2_{0.01, 19} = 8.907\) and \(χ^2_{0.99, 19} = 36.191\).
06

Calculate Confidence Interval for \sigma^2, 98% CI, n=20

Substitute s^2 = 12.6 and n = 20 in the same formula: \[\left( \frac{19 \times 12.6}{36.191}, \frac{19 \times 12.6}{8.907} \right) = (6.62, 26.89) \]. This interval is wider than the 90% confidence interval with the same sample size.
07

Compare the Intervals

Increasing the sample size reduces the width of the confidence interval. A higher confidence level results in a wider interval.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Simple Random Sample
A simple random sample is a basic sampling technique where each member of a population has an equal chance of being chosen. It ensures that the sample is unbiased and accurately represents the population. This method is foundational in statistics because it enables researchers to draw general conclusions about a population based on a subset of collected data. To select a simple random sample:
- Define the population clearly.
- Assign a number to each member of the population.
- Use a random number generator to pick members from the population.
This technique is essential for maintaining randomness and reducing selection bias in studies.
Chi-Square Distribution
A chi-square distribution is a statistical method that helps assess the variance in a data set. It's commonly used when constructing confidence intervals for variance because it handles sample variances derived from normally distributed populations. In our exercise, we use the chi-square distribution to calculate confidence intervals for the population variance. The steps involve:
- Determining degrees of freedom (df), which is typically the sample size minus one (n-1).
- Using chi-square tables or statistical software to find critical values for the desired confidence level (e.g., 90%, 98%).
- Applying these critical values in the formula \(\frac{(n-1)s^2}{\chi^2_{upper}}, \frac{(n-1)s^2}{\chi^2_{lower}}\) to get the confidence interval.
The chi-square distribution is pivotal for understanding how data variability might differ from the expected distribution in hypothesis testing and interval estimation.
Sample Size Effect
The sample size directly influences the confidence interval's width. When sample size increases, the interval tends to get narrower, providing a more precise estimate.
Key effects of sample size include:
- **Larger Sample Sizes:** These yield more reliable and accurate estimates as they reduce the margin of error. Consequently, the confidence interval for the population variance becomes narrower.
- **Smaller Sample Sizes:** These can lead to wider confidence intervals, indicating less precision in the estimate of the population parameter.
In our exercise, increasing the sample size from 20 to 30 resulted in narrower confidence intervals for variance (7.94, 23.70 to 8.59, 22.77). Hence, it's crucial to consider sample size appropriately to ensure the statistical reliability of your results.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Construct a confidence interval of the population proportion at the given level of confidence. \(x=860, n=1100,94 \%\) confidence

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Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers is one of the premier pitchers in baseball. His most popular pitch is a four-seam fastball. The data in the next column represent the pitch speed (in miles per hour) for a random sample of 18 of his four-seam fastball pitches. $$ \begin{array}{llllll} \hline 93.63 & 93.83 & 94.18 & 94.71 & 95.52 & 95.07 \\ \hline 95.12 & 95.35 & 94.15 & 94.62 & 96.08 & 93.86 \\ \hline 94.75 & 94.70 & 95.28 & 95.49 & 95.77 & 93.34 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ (a) Is "pitch speed" a quantitative or qualitative variable? Why is it important to know this when determining the type of confidence interval you may construct? (b) Draw a normal probability plot to verify that "pitch speed" could come from a population that is normally distributed. (c) Draw a boxplot to verify the data set has no outliers. (d) Are the requirements for constructing a confidence interval for the mean pitch speed of a Clayton Kershaw four-seam fastball satisfied? (e) Construct and interpret a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean pitch speed of a Clayton Kershaw four-seam fastball. (f) Do you believe that a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean pitch speed of all major league pitchers' four-seam fastbal would be narrower or wider? Why?

A recent Gallup poll asked Americans to disclose the number of books they read during the previous year. Initial survey results indicate that \(s=16.6\) books. (a) How many subjects are needed to estimate the number of books Americans read the previous year within four books with \(95 \%\) confidence? (b) How many subjects are needed to estimate the number of books Americans read the previous year within two books with \(95 \%\) confidence? (c) What effect does doubling the required accuracy have on the sample size? (d) How many subjects are needed to estimate the number of books Americans read the previous year within four books with \(99 \%\) confidence? Compare this result to part (a). How does increasing the level of confidence in the estimate affect sample size? Why is this reasonable?

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