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Jane wants to estimate the proportion of students on her campus who eat cauliflower. After surveying 20 students, she finds 2 who eat cauliflower. Obtain and interpret a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of students who eat cauliflower on Jane's campus using Agresti and Coull's method.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 95% confidence interval for the proportion of students who eat cauliflower is \(\left[ 0.020, 0.314 \right]\).

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Sample Proportion

Calculate the sample proportion, \(\hat{p}\), of students who eat cauliflower. Jane surveyed 20 students and found 2 who eat cauliflower, so \(\hat{p} = \frac{2}{20} = 0.10\).
02

Apply Agresti and Coull's Adjustment

Agresti and Coull's method adjusts the sample proportion and sample size to obtain more accurate confidence intervals. Compute the adjusted values using \(\tilde{p} = \frac{x + 2}{n + 4}\) and \(\tilde{n} = n + 4\). For Jane's sample, \(\tilde{p} = \frac{2 + 2}{20 + 4} = \frac{4}{24} = 0.167\) and \(\tilde{n} = 20 + 4 = 24\).
03

Calculate the Standard Error

The standard error (SE) for the adjusted proportion is calculated using \(SE = \sqrt{\frac{\tilde{p}(1 - \tilde{p})}{\tilde{n}}}\). Substitute the adjusted values to get \(SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.167(1 - 0.167)}{24}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.167 \times 0.833}{24}} \approx 0.075\).
04

Determine the Z-Value for a 95% Confidence Interval

For a 95% confidence interval, the corresponding Z-value is approximately 1.96.
05

Calculate the Confidence Interval

The confidence interval is calculated using \(\tilde{p} \pm Z \times SE\). Plugging in the values, we get \(0.167 \pm 1.96 \times 0.075 = 0.167 \pm 0.147\). Thus, the interval is \(\left[ 0.020, 0.314 \right]\).
06

Interpret the Confidence Interval

The 95% confidence interval suggests that between 2% and 31.4% of students on Jane's campus eat cauliflower. This means we are 95% confident that the true proportion of students who eat cauliflower falls within this range.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

confidence interval
A confidence interval gives a range of values within which we expect the true population parameter to lie. This range is calculated from the sample data. For instance, in Jane's survey, the 95% confidence interval indicates where we believe the true proportion of students who eat cauliflower can be found, based on her sample of 20 students. The confidence intervals are especially useful because they provide an estimated range rather than a single number, giving us a better sense of the uncertainty associated with the sample data.
Confidence intervals typically depend on the sample size, the sample proportion, and the desired level of confidence (like 95%). As the sample size increases, the confidence interval tends to become narrower, meaning we get a more precise estimate of the population parameter.
sample proportion
The sample proportion, denoted as \(\hat{p}\), is the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the total number of observations in the sample. In Jane's case, she surveyed 20 students and found that 2 of them eat cauliflower. Therefore, the sample proportion is \(\hat{p} = \frac{2}{20} = 0.10\).
This sample proportion is a point estimate of the true population proportion. In other words, it provides a single best guess of the proportion of all students on Jane's campus who eat cauliflower based on her sample. However, due to sampling variability, this estimate will have some degree of uncertainty, which is why we use confidence intervals.
standard error
The standard error measures the variability of a sample proportion as we repeatedly sample from the same population. It's crucial for constructing confidence intervals. Agresti and Coull's method adjusts the sample proportion and sample size to determine the standard error, making their method more accurate, especially with small sample sizes.
For Jane's data, the adjusted sample proportion is calculated as \(\tilde{p} = \frac{x + 2}{n + 4}\) and the adjusted sample size as \(\tilde{n} = n + 4\). Thus, \(\tilde{p} = \frac{4}{24} = 0.167\) and \(\tilde{n} = 24\). The standard error formula is:
\[\text{SE} = \sqrt{\frac{\tilde{p}(1 - \tilde{p})}{\tilde{n}}}\]
By substituting the adjusted values, we obtain:
\[\text{SE} = \sqrt{\frac{0.167(1 - 0.167)}{24}} \approx 0.075\],
indicating a measure of the sampling distribution's variability.
95% confidence interval
A 95% confidence interval provides a range within which we are 95% confident the true population parameter lies. For a 95% confidence level, the Z-value is approximately 1.96. To calculate the 95% confidence interval for Jane's adjusted proportion, we use the formula:
\[ \tilde{p} \pm Z \times SE \]
Substituting the values:
\[ 0.167 \pm 1.96 \times 0.075 = 0.167 \pm 0.147 \]
This results in an interval of \[\left[0.020, 0.314\right]\].
This means we are 95% confident that the true proportion of students who eat cauliflower at Jane's campus is between 2% and 31.4%. This range accounts for the inherent uncertainty in the sample data while providing a useful estimation of the population parameter.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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