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True or False: A \(95 \%\) confidence interval for a population proportion with lower bound 0.45 and upper bound 0.51 means there is a \(95 \%\) probability the population proportion is between 0.45 and 0.51

Short Answer

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Step by step solution

01

- Understanding Confidence Intervals

A confidence interval provides a range of values which is likely to contain the population parameter with a certain level of confidence, in this case, 95%.
02

- Key Point About Confidence Intervals

It's key to understand that the confidence level (95%) does not mean there is a 95% chance that the true population parameter is in the interval. Instead, it means that if we were to take many samples and build a confidence interval from each sample, approximately 95% of those intervals would contain the true population parameter.
03

- Applying This Understanding to the Given Interval

Given the 95% confidence interval with a lower bound of 0.45 and an upper bound of 0.51, the correct interpretation is: We are 95% confident that this interval (0.45 to 0.51) contains the true population proportion.
04

- Evaluating the Statement

The statement suggests there is a 95% probability that the population proportion is between 0.45 and 0.51. This is false because the correct interpretation deals with confidence, not probability. The population proportion is either in this interval or not; the 95% refers to the process of estimating this interval across many samples.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

population proportion
When we talk about a population proportion, we are referring to the fraction or percentage of the population that has a specific characteristic. For example, if we wanted to find out what percentage of a city’s residents prefer public transport over private vehicles, we would be looking at the population proportion of those favoring public transport.

Calculating the population proportion involves surveying a sample of the population and then using that sample to estimate the proportion for the whole population.
Population proportion is often denoted by the symbol \( p \). For example, if 60 out of 100 surveyed people prefer public transport, the sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) would be 0.60, and we would use this to estimate the population proportion.
confidence level
The confidence level tells us how sure we can be about our interval estimate; it is a measure of the reliability of the interval. Common confidence levels include 90%, 95%, and 99%.
The most widely used one is the 95% confidence level.

A 95% confidence level means we are confident that 95 out of 100 samples from the population will produce intervals that contain the true population parameter.
It doesn’t mean there's a 95% chance the population parameter lies within our specific interval.
Instead, it is about the long-term reliability of the inference process.
interpretation of confidence intervals
Interpreting confidence intervals can be tricky but is crucial for understanding statistical results.

Let’s discuss the given exercise: We have a 95% confidence interval with a lower bound of 0.45 and an upper bound of 0.51. This interval estimation means that we can be 95% confident that the true population proportion lies between 0.45 and 0.51. Not that the probability of the population proportion being between these values is 95%.
The correct way of looking at it is, if we conduct this survey multiple times and calculate confidence intervals for each instance, about 95% of those intervals would include the true population proportion.
This is why the statement, ‘there is a 95% probability that the population proportion is between 0.45 and 0.51’, is false. We should remember that the actual population proportion is either within the interval or it is not; the probability the interval will cover the population proportion (on repeated sampling) is 95%.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Sleep apnea is a disorder in which you have one or more pauses in breathing or shallow breaths while you sleep. In a cross-sectional study of 320 individuals who suffer from sleep apnea, it was found that 192 had gum disease. Note: In the general population, about \(17.5 \%\) of individuals have gum disease. (a) What does it mean for this study to be cross-sectional? (b) What is the variable of interest in this study? Is it qualitative or quantitative? Explain. (c) Estimate the proportion of individuals who suffer from sleep apnea who have gum disease with \(95 \%\) confidence. Interpret your result.

Explain why quadrupling the sample size causes the margin of error to be cut in half.

A USA Today/Gallup poll asked 1006 adult Americans how much it would bother them to stay in a room on the 13 th floor of a hotel. Interestingly, \(13 \%\) said it would bother them. The margin of error was 3 percentage points with \(95 \%\) confidence. Which of the following represents a reasonable interpretation of the survey results? For those not reasonable, explain the flaw. (a) We are \(95 \%\) confident that the proportion of adult Americans who would be bothered to stay in a room on the 13th floor is between 0.10 and 0.16 . (b) We are between \(92 \%\) and \(98 \%\) confident that \(13 \%\) of adult Americans would be bothered to stay in a room on the 13th floor. (c) In \(95 \%\) of samples of adult Americans, the proportion who would be bothered to stay in a room on the 13 th floor is between 0.10 and 0.16 . (d) We are \(95 \%\) confident that \(13 \%\) of adult Americans would be bothered to stay in a room on the 13 th floor.

A researcher wishes to estimate the proportion of households that have broadband Internet access. What size sample should be obtained if she wishes the estimate to be within 0.03 with \(99 \%\) confidence if (a) she uses a 2009 estimate of 0.635 obtained from the National Telecommunications and Information Administration? (b) she does not use any prior estimates?

(a) Find the \(t\) -value such that the area in the right tail is 0.10 with 25 degrees of freedom. (b) Find the \(t\) -value such that the area in the right tail is 0.05 with 30 degrees of freedom. (c) Find the \(t\) -value such that the area left of the \(t\) -value is 0.01 with 18 degrees of freedom. [Hint: Use symmetry.] (d) Find the critical \(t\) -value that corresponds to \(90 \%\) confidence. Assume 20 degrees of freedom.

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