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Afraid to Fly According to a study conducted by the Gallup organization, the proportion of Americans who are afraid to fly is \(0.10 .\) A random sample of 1100 Americans results in 121 indicating that they are afraid to fly. Explain why this is not necessarily evidence that the proportion of Americans who are afraid to fly has increased since the time of the Gallup study.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The sample proportion of 0.11 is not significantly different from 0.10; thus, there's insufficient evidence to conclude an increase in the fear of flying.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Null and Alternative Hypotheses

The null hypothesis is that the proportion of Americans who are afraid to fly has not changed since the Gallup study, which is stated as: Null hypothesis (H_0): p = 0.10. The alternative hypothesis is that the proportion of Americans who are afraid to fly has increased, which is: Alternative hypothesis (H_1): p > 0.10.
02

Calculate the Sample Proportion

Given that 121 out of a sample of 1100 Americans are afraid to fly, the sample proportion ( \hat{p}) can be calculated as follows: \(\hat{p} = \frac{121}{1100} = 0.11\).
03

Determine the Standard Error

The standard error (SE) for the sample proportion is calculated using the formula: \(SE = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}\), where p is the proportion from the Gallup study (0.10) and n is the sample size (1100). So, \(SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.10(1-0.10)}{1100}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.10 \times 0.90}{1100}} \approx 0.009\).
04

Calculate the Test Statistic

The test statistic (Z) can be calculated using the formula: \(Z = \frac{\hat{p} - p}{SE}\). Plug in the values for \(\hat{p}\) (0.11), p (0.10), and the standard error ( SE ): \( Z = \frac{0.11 - 0.10}{0.009} \approx 1.11\).
05

Compare the Test Statistic to Critical Value

For a one-tailed test with a significance level (α) of 0.05, the critical value from the standard normal distribution (Z-table) is approximately 1.645. Compare the test statistic (1.11) to the critical value (1.645). Since 1.11 < 1.645, we do not reject the null hypothesis.
06

Conclusion

Since the test statistic does not exceed the critical value, there is not enough evidence to conclude that the proportion of Americans who are afraid to fly has increased from the proportion reported in the Gallup study. This means that the observed proportion of 0.11 from the sample is not significantly different from the Gallup study proportion of 0.10.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
In statistical hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis is a statement that suggests there is no significant difference or effect. It is denoted as \(H_0\). For example, in this scenario, the null hypothesis states that the proportion of Americans who are afraid to fly has not changed since the Gallup study. Mathematically, it's represented as: \[ H_0: p = 0.10 \].
The null hypothesis serves as the baseline or default position. The goal of hypothesis testing is often to determine whether there is enough evidence to reject this hypothesis in favor of an alternate explanation.
Alternative Hypothesis
Contrary to the null, the alternative hypothesis proposes that there is a significant difference or effect. It is denoted as \(H_1\) or \(H_a\). In our exercise, the alternative hypothesis suggests that the proportion of Americans who are afraid to fly has increased since the Gallup study. This can be expressed mathematically as: \[ H_1: p > 0.10 \].
While the null hypothesis serves as a default assumption, the alternative hypothesis represents what we are trying to support with evidence from the sample data. In a one-tailed test like this one, we are specifically looking for an increase, not just any difference.
Sample Proportion
The sample proportion is a statistic that estimates the proportion of a population that has a particular characteristic, based on a sample drawn from that population. It is denoted as \(\hat{p}\). In our example, out of a sample of 1100 Americans, 121 indicated they are afraid to fly. We calculate this sample proportion as: \[ \hat{p} = \frac{121}{1100} = 0.11 \].
This value gives us an estimate that can be compared to our hypothesized population proportion (from the Gallup study, \(p = 0.10\)). Knowing the sample proportion is essential for further calculations in hypothesis testing, such as determining the standard error.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) measures the variability or dispersion of the sample proportion from the true population proportion. It helps us understand how much the sample proportion might differ from the actual population proportion due to random sampling. The formula for SE is: \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{p(1 - p)}{n}} \], where \(p\) is the population proportion (0.10 here) and \(n\) is the sample size (1100). Plugging in the values, we get: \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.10(1 - 0.10)}{1100}} \approx 0.009 \]
A smaller standard error suggests that our sample proportion is a more accurate estimate of the population proportion.
Test Statistic
The test statistic quantifies how far the sample proportion is from the hypothesized population proportion, in units of the standard error. It allows us to determine whether this observed difference is significant. For this problem, the test statistic (Z) is calculated as: \[ Z = \frac{\hat{p} - p}{SE} \], where \(\hat{p}\) is the sample proportion (0.11), \(p\) is the hypothesized proportion (0.10), and \(SE\) is the standard error (0.009). Substituting the values, we get: \[ Z = \frac{0.11 - 0.10}{0.009} \approx 1.11 \].
This Z-value helps us compare our observed data against the hypothesized proportion. In this case, we use it to compare against a critical value from the Z-table to make our final decision about the hypotheses.

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