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According to paint manufacturer DuPont, \(6 \%\) of all cars worldwide are red. In the Sullivan Statistics Survey, of 175 respondents, \(17,\) or \(9.7 \%,\) indicated the color of their car is red. Determine if the results of the Sullivan Survey contradict those of DuPont by computing \(P(X \geq 17)\) where \(X\) is a binomial random variable with \(n=175\) and \(p=0.06 .\) Explain what the probability represents.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The survey results do not significantly contradict DuPont's claim if .

Step by step solution

01

Define the problem and variables

Identify the key elements: The survey has 175 respondents (), with the probability of having a red car according to DuPont (). We need to check if the survey results () contradict the manufacturer's assumptions.
02

Set up the binomial distribution

The number of successes (red cars) in the survey is given by a binomial distribution. Define the binomial random variable as follows: where represents the total number of trials (respondents), and represents the probability of success (having a red car).
03

Use the binomial cumulative distribution function (CDF)

To determine if there are significantly more red cars in the survey than predicted, calculate the cumulative probability of observing 17 or more red cars. Use the CDF of the binomial distribution:
04

Calculate the probability

Using appropriate statistical tools or a binomial calculator, find: .
05

Interpret the result

Compare the calculated probability to a significance level (usually 0.05). If , the survey results are not significantly different from the DuPont's claim. If , the results contradict the DuPont's claim.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Probability
A binomial probability works for situations with two possible outcomes, such as a 'success' or 'failure.' In our example, having a red car is considered a 'success,' while not having a red car is a 'failure.' The binomial distribution is governed by two parameters: the number of trials, denoted as \(n\), and the probability of success in each trial, denoted as \(p\).

In the given exercise, the number of respondents (or trials) is \(n = 175\) and the probability of owning a red car according to DuPont is \(p = 0.06\). The binomial probability formula is:
\ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \
where \( k \) is the number of successes (red cars). The task is to find the probability of 17 or more successes in 175 trials. This involves calculating the cumulative probability.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance helps us determine if a result is likely due to chance or if it's meaningful. To assess if the survey results deviate from DuPont's claim, we set a significance level (often denoted as \( \alpha \)), typically 0.05 for a 5% significance level.

Here's how it works:
  • If the probability of getting 17 or more red cars (\(P(X\geq 17)\)) is less than 0.05, the results are significantly different from DuPont's rate.
  • If \(P(X\geq 17)\) is greater than or equal to 0.05, the survey results are not significantly different from DuPont's claim, meaning there isn't strong evidence to suggest the proportion of red cars differs from DuPont's estimate.
The calculated probability of 17 or more red cars will help us interpret the survey results in the context of statistical significance.
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a binomial distribution sums up the probabilities of obtaining a number of successes up to a certain value. It is useful when we want to find the probability of observing a range of outcomes rather than a specific number.

In this problem, we need to find the probability of having 17 or more red cars out of 175 respondents. This is represented as \(P(X\geq 17)\), the sum of probabilities for every possible outcome from 17 to 175. To find this, we use the complementary rule:
\ P(X \geq 17) = 1 - P(X < 17) \.
The CDF used in this context is for all values less than 17. Today, we often use statistical software or a binomial calculator to find these probabilities quickly and accurately.

In the exercise, calculating \( P(X\geq 17) = 0.0353 \) shows the likelihood of seeing 17 or more red cars out of 175, providing the basis for deciding if the result is statistically significant against DuPont's claim.

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