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The number of hits to a website follows a Poisson process; hits occur at the rate of 1.4 per minute between 7:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. Compute the probability that the number of hits between 7:30 p.m. and 7:35 p.m. is (a) exactly seven. Interpret the result. (b) fewer than seven. Interpret the result. (c) at least seven. Interpret the result.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 0.149. (b) 0.503. (c) 0.497.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the rate of hits

The rate of hits is given as 1.4 hits per minute.
02

Determine the time interval

The interval is from 7:30 p.m. to 7:35 p.m., which is 5 minutes.
03

Calculate the expected number of hits

The expected number of hits \(\lambda\) is the rate multiplied by the time interval: \(\lambda = 1.4 \times 5 = 7\).
04

Use the Poisson probability formula for part (a)

The Poisson probability formula is \(\Pr(X=k) = \frac{e^{-\lambda}\lambda^k}{k!}\). For exactly seven hits: \(\Pr(X=7) = \frac{e^{-7}7^7}{7!}\).
05

Compute the probability for part (a)

Calculate the value: \(\Pr(X=7) \approx \frac{0.000912 \times 823543}{5040} \approx 0.149\). Thus, the probability is approximately 0.149.
06

Interpret part (a)

There is approximately a 14.9% chance that exactly 7 hits will occur between 7:30 p.m. and 7:35 p.m.
07

Use the cumulative Poisson probability for part (b)

For fewer than seven hits: \(\Pr(X < 7) = \sum_{k=0}^{6} \Pr(X=k)\). Compute each term or use tables/calculators for cumulative probabilities.
08

Compute the cumulative probability for part (b)

Using a calculator or table, \(\Pr(X < 7) \approx 0.503\).
09

Interpret part (b)

There is approximately a 50.3% chance that fewer than seven hits will occur between 7:30 p.m. and 7:35 p.m.
10

Compute the complementary probability for part (c)

For at least seven hits: \(\Pr(X \ge 7) = 1 - \Pr(X < 7)\).
11

Calculate the value for part (c)

\( \Pr(X \ge 7) = 1 - 0.503 = 0.497\).
12

Interpret part (c)

There is approximately a 49.7% chance that at least seven hits will occur between 7:30 p.m. and 7:35 p.m.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Calculation
Let's break down how to calculate probabilities using the Poisson distribution. In this problem, hits to a website happen at the rate of 1.4 per minute. We want to find the probability of different numbers of hits within a specific time.

The first step is identifying the rate of hits (\textbackslash\textlambda), which is 1.4 hits per minute. Our time interval is from 7:30 p.m. to 7:35 p.m., which is 5 minutes.

So, we calculate the expected number of hits, \textbackslash\textlambda, as:

\textbackslash\textlambda = 1.4 \textbackslash times 5 = 7.

To find the probability of exactly seven hits, we use the Poisson probability formula:

\( \textbackslash Pr(X=k) = \frac{\textbackslash e^{-\textbackslash\textlambda}\textbackslash\textlambda^k}{k!} \)

Plugging in the values for part (a):

\( \textbackslash Pr(X=7)= \frac{\textbackslash e^{-7}7^7}{7!} \)

Calculate this to get approximately 0.149.

This means there's about a 14.9% chance of exactly seven hits occurring between 7:30 p.m. and 7:35 p.m.
Expected Value
Understanding the expected value helps in predicting the average outcome over many trials. In a Poisson distribution, the expected value (mean) is directly related to the rate of occurrence and the time period.

Here, hits occur at a rate of 1.4 per minute.

The expected number of hits (\textbackslash\textlambda) for 5 minutes is calculated as:

\( \textbackslash\textlambda = 1.4 \textbackslash times 5 = 7 \)

This means that on average, you would expect 7 hits every 5 minutes.

The expected value tells us what to anticipate over a long period or numerous trials, even if individual occurrences vary.

In this example, despite random variations, the long-term average number of hits in each 5-minute interval would be around 7.
Cumulative Probability
Moving on to cumulative probabilities, which help us understand the chance of observing up to a certain number of events.

For part (b), we need to calculate the probability of fewer than seven hits. This is done by summing individual probabilities from zero to six:

\( \textbackslash Pr(X < 7) = \textbackslash sum_{k=0}^{6} \textbackslash Pr(X=k) \)

While it's time-consuming to do manually, we can use tables or calculators for cumulative Poisson probabilities.

The computation gives us approximately 0.503.

This means there's about a 50.3% chance of having fewer than seven hits between 7:30 p.m. and 7:35 p.m.

For part (c), we need to find the probability of at least seven hits.

Using the complement rule, we get:

\( \textbackslash Pr(X \textbackslash ge 7) = 1 - \textbackslash Pr(X < 7) = 1 - 0.503 = 0.497 \)

This indicates a 49.7% chance of having at least seven hits in the same time period.

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