/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 36 The following data represent pol... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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The following data represent political party by age from a random sample of registered Iowa Voters $$ \begin{array}{lccccc} & \mathbf{1 7 - 2 9} & \mathbf{3 0 - 4 4} & \mathbf{4 5 - 6 4} & \mathbf{6 5 +} & \text { Total } \\ \hline \text { Republican } & 224 & 340 & 1075 & 561 & \mathbf{2 2 0 0} \\ \hline \text { Democrat } & 184 & 384 & 773 & 459 & \mathbf{1 8 0 0} \\ \hline \text { Total } & \mathbf{4 0 8} & \mathbf{7 2 4} & \mathbf{1 8 4 8} & \mathbf{1 0 2 0} & \mathbf{4 0 0 0} \\ \hline \end{array} $$ (a) Are the events "Republican" and "30-44" independent? Justify your answer. (b) Are the events "Democrat" and "65+" independent? Justify your answer. (c) Are the events "17-29" and "45-64" mutually exclusive? Justify your answer. (d) Are the events "Republican" and "45-64" mutually exclusive? Justify your answer.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) Not independent. (b) Independent. (c) Mutually exclusive. (d) Not mutually exclusive.

Step by step solution

01

Define Independence

Two events A and B are independent if the probability of A occurring, given that B occurs, is the same as the probability of A occurring. Mathematically, events A and B are independent if \[ P(A \cap B) = P(A) \cdot P(B) \]
02

Calculate Probabilities for Part (a)

For Republican and 30-44:1. \( P(\text{Republican}) = \frac{2200}{4000} = 0.55 \)2. \( P(\text{30-44}) = \frac{724}{4000} = 0.181 \)3. \( P(\text{Republican} \cap \text{30-44}) = \frac{340}{4000} = 0.085 \)
03

Check Independence for Part (a)

Calculate \[ P(\text{Republican}) \cdot P(\text{30-44}) = 0.55 \cdot 0.181 = 0.09955 \]Since \( P(\text{Republican} \cap \text{30-44}) = 0.085 \) is not equal to this result, the events are not independent.
04

Calculate Probabilities for Part (b)

For Democrat and 65+:1. \( P(\text{Democrat}) = \frac{1800}{4000} = 0.45 \)2. \( P(\text{65+}) = \frac{1020}{4000} = 0.255 \)3. \( P(\text{Democrat} \cap \text{65+}) = \frac{459}{4000} = 0.11475 \)
05

Check Independence for Part (b)

Calculate \[ P(\text{Democrat}) \cdot P(\text{65+}) = 0.45 \cdot 0.255 = 0.11475 \]Since \( P(\text{Democrat} \cap \text{65+}) = 0.11475 \), the events are independent.
06

Define Mutually Exclusive

Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot both occur at the same time. Mathematically, events A and B are mutually exclusive if \[ P(A \cap B) = 0 \]
07

Check Mutually Exclusive for Part (c)

For 17-29 and 45-64:Since a person cannot be in both age groups simultaneously, \[ P(\text{17-29} \cap \text{45-64}) = 0 \]Thus, the events are mutually exclusive.
08

Check Mutually Exclusive for Part (d)

For Republican and 45-64:\( P(\text{Republican} \cap \text{45-64}) = \frac{1075}{4000} eq 0 \)Thus, the events are not mutually exclusive.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independence of Events
In probability, two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one event does not affect the occurrence of the other. This concept can be illustrated using the probability formula. Mathematically, two events A and B are independent if: \( P(A \cap B) = P(A) \cdot P(B) \) Here, \( P(A \cap B) \) represents the probability of both events happening.
To check for independence, we compare \( P(A \cap B) \) to \( P(A) \) times \( P(B) \).

In the given exercise, we calculated the probabilities for 'Republicans' and ages '30-44'. After computing, we found that: \( P(\text{Republican} \cap \text{30-44}) = 0.085 \), whereas, \( P(\text{Republican}) \cdot P(\text{30-44}) = 0.09955 \). Since these two values are not equal, the events are not independent.
On the contrary, for 'Democrats' and ages '65+', it was found that: \( P(\text{Democrat}) \cdot P(\text{65+}) = 0.11475 \). This is equal to \( P(\text{Democrat} \cap \text{65+}) \), proving that these events are independent.
Mutually Exclusive Events
Events are considered mutually exclusive if they cannot both occur at the same time. In probabilistic terms, this means: \( P(A \cap B) = 0 \).
For example, a person cannot be both aged 17-29 and 45-64 simultaneously. Thus, we write: \( P(\text{17-29} \cap \text{45-64}) = 0 \), confirming these are mutually exclusive events.
However, if events can occur together, they are not mutually exclusive. In the case of 'Republican' and '45-64', we see that: \( P(\text{Republican} \cap \text{45-64}) = \frac{1075}{4000} eq 0 \). Therefore, these events are not mutually exclusive.
Probability Calculation
Understanding probability calculations helps in making sense of different event occurrences. Basic probability can be calculated by dividing the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of outcomes.
For instance, in the given population of 4000 Iowa voters, the probability of selecting a Republican is: \( P(\text{Republican}) = \frac{2200}{4000} = 0.55 \). Similarly, the probability for an individual being 30-44 years old is: \( P(\text{30-44}) = \frac{724}{4000} = 0.181 \).
When calculating overlapping probabilities such as 'Republican' and '30-44', it follows: \( P(\text{Republican} \cap \text{30-44}) = \frac{340}{4000} = 0.085 \). These basic calculations form the foundation for more complex analyses.
Data Interpretation
Interpreting data involves making sense of numbers and using them to draw meaningful conclusions. In the provided data, we notice totals and subgroup counts which are crucial for our analysis.
We see that out of 4000 voters, there are a mixture of Republicans and Democrats across various age groups.
Specific insights like the number of Republicans aged 30-44 provide a focused view. From our example, we interpreted that there are 340 individuals who fall under this category.
By interpreting this data, we were able to solve questions regarding independence and mutual exclusivity of different events.

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