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According to the Centers for Disease Control, the probability that a randomly selected citizen of the United States has hearing problems is \(0.151 .\) The probability that a randomly selected citizen of the United States has vision problems is \(0.093 .\) Can we compute the probability of randomly selecting a citizen of the United States who has hearing problems or vision problems by adding these probabilities? Why or why not?

Short Answer

Expert verified
No, we can't, because the events are not mutually exclusive.

Step by step solution

01

- Understand the probability of each event

The probability that a person has hearing problems is given as 0.151. The probability that a person has vision problems is given as 0.093.
02

- Define the events and notation

Let event A represent 'having hearing problems' with probability P(A) = 0.151, and event B represent 'having vision problems' with probability P(B) = 0.093.
03

- Determine if using the addition rule is possible

To find if we can directly add the probabilities P(A) and P(B), we need to know if the two events are mutually exclusive. Mutually exclusive events cannot happen at the same time.
04

- Check for mutual exclusivity

Having hearing problems and having vision problems are not mutually exclusive events. A person can have both hearing and vision problems simultaneously.
05

- Apply the correct formula

To find the probability of a person having either hearing or vision problems, use the formula: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B).
06

- Conclusion

Without the probability of a person having both hearing and vision problems (P(A and B)), we cannot accurately compute P(A or B) just by adding P(A) and P(B).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Addition Rule
The **addition rule** in probability theory helps us find the probability of either one of two events occurring. Specifically, it's used when we're interested in knowing the combined likelihood of two separate events.
When events are **mutually exclusive** (meaning they can't happen at the same time), we can simply add their probabilities:
\[ P(A \, or \, B) = P(A) + P(B) \]
However, if the events are **not mutually exclusive** (they can happen together), we must subtract the probability of both events happening together:
\[ P(A \, or \, B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \, and \, B) \]
This formula ensures we don't double-count the overlap. In our exercise, because a person can have both hearing and vision problems, we use the second formula.
Mutually Exclusive Events
**Mutually exclusive events** are events that cannot occur simultaneously. In other words, the occurrence of one event means the other cannot happen. For instance, when rolling a single die, getting a 1 and getting a 2 are mutually exclusive events because you can't roll both a 1 and a 2 at the same time.
Mathematically, for mutually exclusive events A and B: \[ P(A \ and \ B) = 0 \]
In our exercise, hearing and vision problems are NOT mutually exclusive because a person can simultaneously have both issues. Thus, we need to use the adjusted addition rule, which accounts for overlapping probabilities.
Overlapping Events
When events are **overlapping**, it means they can occur at the same time. This overlap must be considered to avoid overestimating probabilities.
For example, if you have events A and B, and they overlap, then:
\[ P(A \ and \ B) \] is the probability of both events happening together.
The combined probability needs to remove this overlap to be accurate: \[ P(A \, or \, B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \, and \, B) \]
In our instance, the overlap between hearing and vision problems (people with both issues) means we subtract this overlap to find the probability of having either.
Event Notation
**Event notation** is crucial to understanding and solving probability problems. Using symbols to represent events simplifies complex relationships and calculations.
In our example:
- Let event A represent 'having hearing problems,' with probability: \[ P(A) = 0.151 \] - Let event B represent 'having vision problems,' with probability: \[ P(B) = 0.093 \]
Proper notation allows us to succinctly express and manipulate probabilities, making our calculations clearer. Whenever dealing with probability, defining events with precise notations is essential to avoid misunderstandings and errors.
Conditional Probability
**Conditional probability** refers to the likelihood of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. It's written as \[ P(A \mid B) \], meaning the probability of event A happening given that event B has occurred.
This concept is different from what鈥檚 needed in our main problem but is frequently used in more complex probability scenarios. Understanding conditional probability helps build a foundation for understanding how events are interrelated and how their probabilities change when given some condition or additional information.
For example:
\[ P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(A \, and \, B)}{P(B)} \] This represents the probability of A happening given that B has already happened, emphasizing the relationship between dependent events.

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