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According to the U.S. Census Bureau, \(8.0 \%\) of 16 - to 24 -year-olds are high school dropouts. In addition, \(2.1 \%\) of 16 - to 24 -year-olds are high school dropouts and unemployed. What is the probability that a randomly selected 16 - to 24 -year-old is unemployed, given he or she is a dropout?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability is 0.2625 or 26.25%.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the given probabilities

Identify the given probabilities in the problem. The probability that a 16 - to 24-year-old is a high school dropout is given as: \(P(D) = 0.08\), and the probability that a 16 - to 24-year-old is both a high school dropout and unemployed is: \(P(D \text{ and } U) = 0.021\).
02

Apply the conditional probability formula

Recall the formula for conditional probability: \(P(A | B) = \frac{P(A \text{ and } B)}{P(B)}\). Here, we need to find the probability that a 16 - to 24-year-old is unemployed, given that they are a high school dropout. Therefore, we use \(P(U | D) = \frac{P(U \text{ and } D)}{P(D)}\).
03

Substitute the values into the formula

Substitute the given probabilities into the conditional probability formula: \(P(U | D) = \frac{0.021}{0.08}\).
04

Simplify the expression

Calculate the result of the division: \(P(U | D) = \frac{0.021}{0.08} = 0.2625\). Therefore, the probability that a randomly selected 16 - to 24-year-old is unemployed given that he or she is a dropout is 0.2625 or 26.25\%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability
Probability is a measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. It ranges from 0 (impossibility) to 1 (certainty). For example, the chance of getting heads when flipping a fair coin is 0.5 or 50%.
To solve the given exercise, we used conditional probability. This concept helps us find the likelihood of an event happening based on the condition that another event has already occurred.
The formula for conditional probability is: \(P(A | B) = \frac{P(A \text{ and } B)}{P(B)}\).
Using this, we calculated the probability that a 16 to 24-year-old is unemployed, given that they are a high school dropout. We substituted the given values and found that the probability is 26.25%.
High School Dropouts
High school dropouts refer to individuals who do not complete their high school education. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 8.0% of 16 to 24-year-olds fall into this category.
Dropping out of high school can have significant long-term impacts, including lower income, higher likelihood of unemployment, and fewer career opportunities.
In the context of the exercise, we used the probability of being a high school dropout, labeled as \(P(D) = 0.08\). This was crucial in calculating the conditional probability of being unemployed given dropout status.
U.S. Census Bureau
The U.S. Census Bureau is the government agency responsible for collecting and providing data about the people and economy of the United States. They conduct various surveys and censuses to gather information about different aspects of society.
For our exercise, the U.S. Census Bureau provided the statistics that 8.0% of 16 to 24-year-olds are high school dropouts, and 2.1% are both dropouts and unemployed.
Reliable data from sources like the U.S. Census Bureau helps in performing accurate probability calculations and making informed decisions based on those probabilities.
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is the percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless and actively seeking work.
In our problem, we focused on the unemployment rate among high school dropouts aged 16 to 24.
We found that 2.1% of this age group are both high school dropouts and unemployed, given as \(P(D \text{ and } U) = 0.021\).
Understanding the unemployment rate is important, as it reflects the health of the economy and can influence policy decisions and educational programs aimed at reducing dropout rates and improving job prospects.

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