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Shawn lives near the border of Illinois and Missouri. One weekend he decides to play \(\$ 1\) in both state lotteries in hopes of hitting two jackpots. The probability of winning the Missouri Lotto is about 0.00000028357 and the probability of winning the Illinois Lotto is about \(0.000000098239 .\) (a) Explain why the two lotteries are independent. (b) Find the probability that Shawn will win both jackpots.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The two lotteries are independent. The probability of winning both jackpots is approximately \( 2.7851443 \times 10^{-14} \).

Step by step solution

01

Understand Independence

Two events are independent if the occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of the other event occurring. Here, winning the Missouri Lotto does not impact the probability of winning the Illinois Lotto, as they are two separate lotteries with different drawings and processes. Therefore, the two lotteries are independent.
02

Write Down Given Probabilities

The probability of winning the Missouri Lotto, denoted as \( P(M) \), is given as 0.00000028357, and the probability of winning the Illinois Lotto, denoted as \( P(I) \), is given as 0.000000098239.
03

Multiply Probabilities of Independent Events

For two independent events, the probability of both events occurring is the product of their individual probabilities. Calculate the probability of winning both the Missouri and Illinois lotteries by multiplying their respective probabilities: \( P(M \text{ and } I) = P(M) \times P(I) = 0.00000028357 \times 0.000000098239 \).
04

Calculate the Probability

Perform the multiplication: \[ 0.00000028357 \times 0.000000098239 \thickapprox 2.7851443 \times 10^{-14} \].

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independent Events
When we talk about **independent events** in probability theory, we mean that the outcome of one event does not influence the outcome of another. For example, if you flip a coin and roll a die, getting heads on the coin doesn't affect what number you roll. In the context of our exercise, winning the Missouri Lotto does not affect the chances of winning the Illinois Lotto. These two lottery events are completely unrelated; different tickets, different numbers, and different drawing mechanisms. In essence, knowing the result of one lottery tells us nothing about the outcome of the other. This independence is a critical aspect when calculating combined probabilities for multiple events.
Multiplication Rule of Probability
The **multiplication rule of probability** helps us determine the likelihood of two independent events happening together. When we have two events, say Event A and Event B, and they are independent, the probability that both A and B will occur is the product of their individual probabilities. Mathematically, this is represented as:
\[ P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B) \]
In the exercise example, we want to find the probability of winning both lotteries. Since the events are independent, we multiply the probability of winning the Missouri Lotto by the probability of winning the Illinois Lotto:
\[ P(\text{Win Missouri} \text{ and } \text{Win Illinois}) = P(\text{Win Missouri}) \times P(\text{Win Illinois}) \] This simple yet powerful rule allows us to combine probabilities for independent events.
Lottery Probability Calculation
Calculating the probability of winning a lottery involves understanding very small probabilities. In our example, the probability of winning the Missouri Lotto is 0.00000028357, and for the Illinois Lotto, it is 0.000000098239. To find the probability of winning both lotteries, we apply the multiplication rule of probability. Following the formula for independent events:
\[ P(\text{Win both}) = P(\text{Win Missouri}) \times P(\text{Win Illinois}) \]
When we perform the multiplication, we get:
\[ 0.00000028357 \times 0.000000098239 \approx 2.7851443 \times 10^{-14} \]
This result shows us that the probability of winning both lotteries at the same time is astronomically small. It's about a 0.000000000000027851443 chance, illustrating just how unlikely a dual win is. Understanding these tiny probabilities can help manage expectations and give a clearer picture of the incredibly slim odds in lottery games.

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