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The quality-control manager of a bottling company wants to discover whether a filling machine overor underfills 16 -ounce bottles randomly. The following data represent the filling status of 20 consecutive bottles: \(A A A A A A A R R R R A A A A A A A R R\) A bottle is rejected (R) if it is either overfilled or underfilled and accepted (A) if it is filled according to specification. Test the randomness of the filling machine in the way that it overor underfills at the \(\alpha=0.05\) level of significance.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The filling machine does not show evidence of overfilling or underfilling bottles randomly at the 0.05 significance level.

Step by step solution

01

Count the number of runs

A run is a sequence of identical items (all 'A' or all 'R') that is followed by a different item. Count the number of runs in the sequence. In the given data: \( AAAAAAARRRRAAAAAAARR \). We can identify the runs as: \(AAAAAAA\), \(RRR\), \(AAAAAAA\), \(RR\). So, there are 4 runs.
02

Count the number of A's and R's

Count the number of accepted (A) and rejected (R) bottles. There are 16 accepted bottles and 4 rejected bottles.
03

Calculate the mean and variance of the number of runs

The mean \( \, \mu_R \, \) and variance \( \, \sigma_R^2 \, \) of the number of runs can be calculated using the formulas: \[ \mu_R = \frac{2n_A n_R}{n_A + n_R} + 1 \]\[ \sigma_R^2 = \frac{2n_A n_R (2n_A n_R - n_A - n_R)}{(n_A + n_R)^2 (n_A + n_R - 1)} \]Plugging in \( n_A = 16 \) and \( n_R = 4 \):\[ \mu_R = \frac{2(16)(4)}{16 + 4} + 1 = \frac{128}{20} + 1 = 7.4 \]\[ \sigma_R^2 = \frac{2(16)(4) (2(16)(4) - 16 - 4)}{(16 + 4)^2 (16 + 4 - 1)} = \frac{2048}{380} = 5.39 \]
04

Calculate the Z-score

Use the formula to calculate the Z-score: \[ Z = \frac{R - \, \mu_R}{\sigma_R} \]Where \( R = 4 \) (from step 1), \( \, \mu_R = 7.4 \), and \( \sigma_R = \sqrt{5.39} \approx 2.32 \):\[ Z = \frac{4 - 7.4}{2.32} = \frac{-3.4}{2.32} \approx -1.47 \]
05

Determine the critical value and conclude

At the \( \, \alpha = 0.05 \) level of significance for a two-tailed test, the critical Z-values are \( \, \pm 1.96 \, \). Since \( \, |Z| = 1.47 \) is less than 1.96, we fail to reject the null hypothesis. Therefore, there is not enough evidence to conclude that the filling machine overfills or underfills bottles randomly.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

hypothesis testing
Hypothesis testing is a statistical method used to determine the likelihood that a given hypothesis about a dataset is true, based on sample data. The hypothesis is often tested against a null hypothesis, which represents a default or no-effect statement. In the context of our exercise, the null hypothesis (H鈧) is that the filling machine operates randomly concerning overfilling or underfilling the bottles, while the alternative hypothesis (H鈧) would imply non-random operation (systematic overfilling or underfilling). We start by formulating these hypotheses and proceed to test them using statistical methods.
The steps include setting a significance level ( \( \alpha \)), usually 0.05, which indicates a 5% risk of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true. The final goal is to use data to determine whether to reject H鈧 or not.
quality control
Quality control ensures that products meet set specifications and standards. In this exercise, the quality control manager wants to verify that the bottling machine consistently fills bottles correctly. Bottles filled according to specification are marked as accepted (A), while overfilled or underfilled bottles are rejected (R). The randomness of the filling machine is tested using statistical tools to ensure that any deviations in filling volumes are due to random fluctuations rather than systematic errors.
This type of quality control is crucial in production environments to maintain product consistency, customer satisfaction, and compliance with regulatory standards.
Z-score calculation
The Z-score is a measure that describes a data point's relation to the mean of a group of values, expressed in terms of standard deviations. In our problem, we calculate the Z-score to determine how many standard deviations away the observed number of runs (R) is from the expected number ( \( \mu_R \)).
To compute the Z-score, we first calculate the mean number of runs: \[ \mu_R = \frac{2n_A n_R}{n_A + n_R} + 1 \] where \( n_A = 16 \) and \( n_R = 4 \). Thus \( \mu_R = 7.4 \).
Next, we calculate the variance: \[ \sigma_R^2 = \frac{2n_A n_R (2n_A n_R - n_A - n_R)}{(n_A + n_R)^2 (n_A + n_R - 1)} \] yielding \( \sigma_R^2 = 5.39 \). The standard deviation ( \( \sigma_R \)) is the square root of the variance, \( 2.32 \).
Finally, the Z-score formula is applied: \[ Z = \frac{R - \mu_R}{\sigma_R} \] Plugging in R = 4, we get \( Z = -1.47 \). This Z-score tells us how far the observed number of runs is from the expected, providing insight into whether the filling deviations are random.
statistical significance
Statistical significance helps to determine whether the observed data is due to chance or indicates a real effect. In hypothesis testing, we compare the calculated Z-score with critical values from the Z-distribution table. For a significance level ( \( \alpha \)) of 0.05 in a two-tailed test, the critical Z-values are \( \pm 1.96 \).
If the calculated Z-score falls within this range, we fail to reject the null hypothesis, indicating that there isn't sufficient evidence that the filling machine's deviations are non-random. If the Z-score exceeded \( \pm 1.96 \), it would suggest that the deviations are statistically significant, meaning the machine does not fill bottles randomly.
In our exercise, the Z-score is -1.47, which is within the critical range, so we conclude that the filling deviations are likely due to random variation, supporting the null hypothesis.

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