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A sports reporter wants to determine if the preseason Associated Press (AP) poll is positively related to the final AP poll. The following data represent the preseason and final AP rankings for a random sample of teams for the 2014 college football season. $$ \begin{array}{lcc} \text { Team } & \begin{array}{c} \text { Preseason } \\ \text { AP Rank } \end{array} & \begin{array}{c} \text { Final AP } \\ \text { Rank } \end{array} \\ \hline \text { Auburn } & 6 & 22 \\ \hline \text { Wisconsin } & 14 & 13 \\ \hline \text { Florida } & 27 & 41 \\ \hline \text { Georgia } & 12 & 9 \\ \hline \text { Missouri } & 24 & 11 \\ \hline \text { Michigan } & 37 & 81 \\ \hline \text { Texas A\&M } & 21 & 34 \\ \hline \text { University of Southern California } & 15 & 21 \\ \hline \text { Ohio State } & 5 & 1 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ (a) Does a positive relationship exist between preseason AP rank and final AP rank? Use the \(\alpha=0.05\) level of significance. (b) Draw a scatter diagram to support your conclusion.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Yes, the positive relationship is significant at \(\alpha=0.05\).

Step by step solution

01

- Organize Data

List the preseason and final AP rankings for each team. The data points are: (6, 22), (14, 13), (27, 41), (12, 9), (24, 11), (37, 81), (21, 34), (15, 21), (5, 1).
02

- Calculate the Correlation Coefficient

Use Pearson's correlation coefficient formula:the correlation coefficient, r, is given by \( r = \frac{n(\sum{xy}) - (\sum{x})(\sum{y})}{\sqrt{[n \sum{x^2} - (\sum{x})^2][n \sum{y^2} - (\sum{y})^2]}} \)where n is the number of data points, x and y are the respective values for preseason and final ranks.
03

- Compute Summations and Products

First calculate each of the following: \(\sum{x} = 161\)\(\sum{y} = 233\)\(\sum{x^2} = 3343\)\(\sum{y^2} = 10129\)\(\sum{xy} = 4973\)
04

- Substitute Values into the Formula

Substitute the computed summations into the formula for r:\[ r = \frac{9(4973) - (161)(233)}{\sqrt{[9(3343) - (161)^2][9(10129) - (233)^2]}} \]\[ r = \frac{44757 - 37453}{\sqrt{[30087 - 25921][91161 - 54289]}} \]\[ r = \frac{7304}{\sqrt{3166 \times 36872}} \]\[ r = \frac{7304}{\sqrt{116671152}} \]\[ r = \frac{7304}{10804} \]\[ r \approx 0.676 \]
05

- Test the Significance of the Correlation

To test if the correlation is significant at \(\alpha=0.05\), use the t-test for correlation coefficient:\[ t = \frac{r \sqrt{n-2}}{\sqrt{1-r^2}} \]\[ t = \frac{0.676 \sqrt{7}} {\sqrt{1-0.676^2}} \]\[ t = \frac{0.676 \times 2.646}{\sqrt{1-0.456}} \]\[ t = \frac{1.789} {\sqrt{0.544}} \]\[ t = \frac{1.789}{0.737} \]\[ t \approx 2.429 \]For 9 teams (n=9), degrees of freedom is 7. From t-distribution table, critical value for 7 degrees of freedom at \(\alpha=0.05\) is approximately 2.365. Since 2.429 > 2.365, the correlation is significant.
06

- Create Scatter Plot

Plot the preseason AP ranks on the x-axis and the final AP ranks on the y-axis to draw the scatter diagram. Visually check if the points trend upwards; in this case, they do.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Pearson Correlation Coefficient
The Pearson correlation coefficient, often denoted as 'r', measures the strength and direction of the linear relationship between two variables. The value of 'r' ranges from -1 to 1.
- A value of 1 indicates a perfect positive linear relationship.
- A value of -1 indicates a perfect negative linear relationship.
- A value of 0 indicates no linear relationship.
In our exercise, the Pearson correlation coefficient is calculated using the formula:
\[ r = \frac{n(\sum{xy}) - (\sum{x})(\sum{y})}{\sqrt{[n \sum{x^2} - (\sum{x})^2][n \sum{y^2} - (\sum{y})^2]}} \] Where n is the number of data points, x and y are the respective values of the variables being examined. For our sports reporter scenario:
- Sum of x-values (preseason AP ranks) is 161
- Sum of y-values (final AP ranks) is 233
- Sum of x2 is 3343
- Sum of y2 is 10129
- Sum of xy products is 4973
When we substitute these values into the formula, solving through steps, we get the correlation coefficient of approximately 0.676, indicating a moderate positive relationship between preseason and final AP ranks. This method helps quantify how strongly preseason ranks predict final rankings.
Significance Testing
Significance testing helps us determine whether the observed correlation is statistically significant or if it could have occurred by chance. In this exercise, we use a t-test for the correlation coefficient. The formula for the t-test is:
\[ t = \frac{r \sqrt{n-2}}{\sqrt{1-r^2}} \] Here, n is the number of data points and r is the Pearson correlation coefficient. Plugging in our values:
\[ t = \frac{0.676 \sqrt{7}}{\sqrt{1-0.676^2}} \ = \frac{0.676 \times 2.646}{\sqrt{1-0.456}} \ = \frac{1.789} {\sqrt{0.544}} \ = \frac{1.789}{0.737} \ \approx 2.429] \] For 9 teams (n=9), the degrees of freedom is 7. Referring to the t-distribution table, the critical value for 7 degrees of freedom at \(\alpha=0.05\) is approximately 2.365.
Since our calculated t-value of 2.429 is greater than 2.365, the correlation is considered significant. This means there is less than a 5% chance that the observed correlation occurred by random chance, confirming a statistically significant positive relationship between preseason and final AP ranks.
Scatter Plot
A scatter plot is a graphical representation of two variables. It helps us visually inspect the relationship and identify trends or patterns. To create a scatter plot for the given data:
- Plot each team's preseason AP rank on the x-axis.
- Plot each team's final AP rank on the y-axis.
- Draw individual points for each (x, y) pair.
When we plot the points for data pairs like (6, 22), (14, 13), (27, 41), (12, 9), and so forth, we observe an upward trend in the scatter plot.
Even though there are fluctuations, the general trend supports the conclusion that higher preseason ranks tend to correspond with better final ranks. This visual confirmation aligns with our calculated Pearson correlation coefficient and the significance test, together showing a moderate positive relationship.

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