Chapter 3: Q98SE (page 203)
Two events, A and B, are independent, withand.
a.Are A and B mutually exclusive? Why?
b.Findand.
c.Find.
Short Answer
a. No, event A and B are not mutually exclusive.
b.The values are and .
c. The value of is 0.37.
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Chapter 3: Q98SE (page 203)
Two events, A and B, are independent, withand.
a.Are A and B mutually exclusive? Why?
b.Findand.
c.Find.
a. No, event A and B are not mutually exclusive.
b.The values are and .
c. The value of is 0.37.
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鈥淟et鈥檚 Make a Deal.鈥滿arilyn vos Savant, who is listedin Guinness Book of World Records Hall of Fame for鈥淗ighest IQ,鈥 writes a weekly column in the Sunday newspaper supplement Parade Magazine. Her column, 鈥淎skMarilyn,鈥 is devoted to games of skill, puzzles, and mind-bendingriddles. In one issue (Parade Magazine, February 24, 1991), vos Savant posed the following question:
Suppose you鈥檙e on a game show, and you鈥檙e given a choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door鈥攕ay, #1鈥攁nd the host, who knows what鈥檚 behind the doors, opens another door鈥攕ay #3鈥攚hich has a goat. He then says to you, 鈥淒o you want to pick door #2?鈥 Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
Marilyn鈥檚 answer: 鈥淵es, you should switch. The first door has a 13 chance of winning [the car], but the second has a 23 chance [of winning the car].鈥 Predictably, vos Savant鈥檚 surprising answer elicited thousands of criticalletters, many of them from PhD mathematicians, who disagreed with her. Who is correct, the PhDs or Marilyn?
Shopping with a smartphone.Each year, United Parcel Service (UPS) commissions a 鈥淧ulse of the Online Shopper鈥 survey. The 2015 survey included a sample of 5,118 U.S. shoppers who have made at least two online purchases
every three months. The survey revealed that 41% of the shoppers used a smartphone to make a purchase. Of those who made a smartphone purchase, 38% indicated that they preferred the mobile Web site to the full Web site accessed through a computer. Assume these percentages represent actual probabilities for the population of online shoppers. What is the probability that a randomly selected online shopper uses a smartphone to make a purchase and
prefers the mobile Web site?
Using game simulation to teach a course. In Engineering Management Research (May 2012), a simulation game approach was proposed to teach concepts in a course on production. The proposed game simulation was for cola or television production. The products are two color television models, A and B. Each model comes in two colors, red and black. Also, the quantity ordered for each model can be 1, 2, or 3 televisions. The choice of model, color, and quantity is specified on a purchase order card.
a. Using a tree diagram, list how many different purchase order cards are possible. (These are the sample points for the experiment.)
b. Suppose, from past history, that black color TVs are in higher demand than red TVs. For planning purposes, should the engineer managing the production process assign equal probabilities to the simple events, part a? Why or why not?
Question: Refer to Exercise 3.35. Use the same event definitions to do the following exercises.
a. Write the event that the outcome is "On" and "High" as an intersection of two events.
b. Write the event that the outcome is "Low" or "Medium" as the complement of an event.
Confidence of feedback information for improving quality. In the semiconductor manufacturing industry, a key to improved quality is having confidence in the feedback generated by production equipment. A study of the confidence level of feedback information was published in Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence(Vol. 26, 2013). At any point in time during the production process, a report can be generated. The report is classified as either 鈥淥K鈥 or 鈥渘ot OK.鈥 Let Arepresent the event that an 鈥淥K鈥 report is generated in any time period (t).Let Brepresent the event that an 鈥淥K鈥 report is generated in the next time period. Consider the following probabilities:
,, and.
a. Express the event B|Ain the words of the problem.
b. Express the event B|in the words of the problem.
c. Find.
d. Find.
e. Find.
f. Use the probabilities, parts d and e, to find P(B).
g. Use Bayes鈥 Rule to find P(A|B), i.e., the probability that an 鈥淥K鈥 report was generated in one time period(t), given that an 鈥淥K鈥 report is generated in the next time period.
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