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Guilt in decision making.Refer to the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making(January 2007) study of theeffect of guilt emotion on how a decision maker focuseson a problem, Exercise 3.48 (p. 183). The results (numberresponding in each category) for the 171 study participantsare reproduced in the table below. Suppose one of the 171participants is selected at random.

Emotional

State

Choose

Stated Option

Do Not Choose

Stated Option

Totals

Guilt

Anger

Neutral

45

8

7

12

50

49

57

58

56

Totals

60

111

171

a.Given that the respondent is assigned to the guilty state, what is the probability that the respondent chooses the stated option?

b.If the respondent does not choose to repair the car, what is the probability that the respondent is in the anger state?

c.Are the events {repair the car} and {guilty state }
independent?

Short Answer

Expert verified

.

Step by step solution

01

Finding the probability that the respondent chooses the stated option

P(A): Guilty respondents who choose the stated option

P(B): Total respondents in a guilty state

To find the probability (P) that the chosen participant chooses the stated option,

P(A|B)=P(A)P(B)=4557

Therefore, the probability of picking a respondent who chooses the stated option given that he is in a guilty state is 45/57.

02

Finding the probability that the respondent doesn’t choose the stated option and is angry 

P(C): Respondents who do not choose the stated option

P(D): Respondents don鈥檛 choose the stated option

P(C|D)=P(CD)P(D)=50171111171=50111

The respondent's probability of not choosing to repair the car and being angry is 50/111.

03

Determining whether the following events are independent or not 

Both events, repairing the car and feeling guilty, will be independent if the occurrence of feeling guilty does not affect the occurrence of repairing the car.

P(A) = Respondents choosing to repair the car

P(B) = Respondents feeling guilty

P(A|B)=P(A)6057=57171But,605757171

Therefore, repairing the car and feeling guilty are not independent events.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Fuzzy logic in supply chain management. A branch of mathematics known as fuzzy logic was used to improve customer service in supply chain management. (Decision Analytics, February 2014.) Customers rate the importance of one service factor relative to another using the following numerical scale: 1 = service factors are equally important, 3 = one factor is moderately more important, 5 = one factor is strongly more important, 7 = one factor is very strongly more important and 9 = one factor is extremely more important. Fuzzy numbers were developed to allow for variation in customer responses. For example, the fuzzy number 1鈭紃epresents an actual response of either 1 or 3; the fuzzy number 7鈭紃epresents a response of 5, 7, or 9. Consider the probabilities of the actual responses for each fuzzy number shown in the table.

Fuzzy Response

Probabilities of Actual Responses

1~

P(1)=2/3,P(3)=1/3

3~

P(1)=1/3,P(3)=1/3,P(5)=1/3

5~

P(3)=1/3,P(5)=1/3,P(7)=1/3

7~

P(5)=1/3,P(7)=1/3,P(9)=1/3

9~

P(7)=1/3,P(9)=2/3

a. If a customer gives a fuzzy response7~, what is the probability that the actual response is not a 7?

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P (E1) = .20, P (E2) = .30, P (E3)= .30, P (E4) = .10, P (E5) = .10.

a. Calculate P (A), P (B), and P (AB).

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c. Calculate the conditional probabilityP (E1/A)in two ways: (1) Add the adjusted (conditional) probabilities of the sample points in the intersection AB, as these represent the event that B occurs given that A has occurred; (2) use the formula for conditional probability:

P (B/A) =P (AB)P (A)

Verify that the two methods yield the same result.

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Performance Measure

Number of Museums

Total visitors

8

Paying visitors

5

Big shows

6

Funds raised

7

Members

4

a. If one of the 30 museums is selected at random, what is the probability that the museum uses total visitors or funds raised most often as a performance measure?

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  1. List the sample points for the experiment.
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A= {Three heads are observed}

B= {Exactly two heads are observed}

C= {At least two heads are observed}

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