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Guilt in decision making.Refer to the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making(January 2007) study of theeffect of guilt emotion on how a decision maker focuseson a problem, Exercise 3.48 (p. 183). The results (numberresponding in each category) for the 171 study participantsare reproduced in the table below. Suppose one of the 171participants is selected at random.

Emotional

State

Choose

Stated Option

Do Not Choose

Stated Option

Totals

Guilt

Anger

Neutral

45

8

7

12

50

49

57

58

56

Totals

60

111

171

a.Given that the respondent is assigned to the guilty state, what is the probability that the respondent chooses the stated option?

b.If the respondent does not choose to repair the car, what is the probability that the respondent is in the anger state?

c.Are the events {repair the car} and {guilty state }
independent?

Short Answer

Expert verified

.

Step by step solution

01

Finding the probability that the respondent chooses the stated option

P(A): Guilty respondents who choose the stated option

P(B): Total respondents in a guilty state

To find the probability (P) that the chosen participant chooses the stated option,

P(A|B)=P(A)P(B)=4557

Therefore, the probability of picking a respondent who chooses the stated option given that he is in a guilty state is 45/57.

02

Finding the probability that the respondent doesn’t choose the stated option and is angry 

P(C): Respondents who do not choose the stated option

P(D): Respondents don鈥檛 choose the stated option

P(C|D)=P(CD)P(D)=50171111171=50111

The respondent's probability of not choosing to repair the car and being angry is 50/111.

03

Determining whether the following events are independent or not 

Both events, repairing the car and feeling guilty, will be independent if the occurrence of feeling guilty does not affect the occurrence of repairing the car.

P(A) = Respondents choosing to repair the car

P(B) = Respondents feeling guilty

P(A|B)=P(A)6057=57171But,605757171

Therefore, repairing the car and feeling guilty are not independent events.

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