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Guilt in decision making.Refer to the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making(January 2007) study of theeffect of guilt emotion on how a decision maker focuseson a problem, Exercise 3.48 (p. 183). The results (numberresponding in each category) for the 171 study participantsare reproduced in the table below. Suppose one of the 171participants is selected at random.

Emotional

State

Choose

Stated Option

Do Not Choose

Stated Option

Totals

Guilt

Anger

Neutral

45

8

7

12

50

49

57

58

56

Totals

60

111

171

a.Given that the respondent is assigned to the guilty state, what is the probability that the respondent chooses the stated option?

b.If the respondent does not choose to repair the car, what is the probability that the respondent is in the anger state?

c.Are the events {repair the car} and {guilty state }
independent?

Short Answer

Expert verified

.

Step by step solution

01

Finding the probability that the respondent chooses the stated option

P(A): Guilty respondents who choose the stated option

P(B): Total respondents in a guilty state

To find the probability (P) that the chosen participant chooses the stated option,

P(A|B)=P(A)P(B)=4557

Therefore, the probability of picking a respondent who chooses the stated option given that he is in a guilty state is 45/57.

02

Finding the probability that the respondent doesn’t choose the stated option and is angry 

P(C): Respondents who do not choose the stated option

P(D): Respondents don鈥檛 choose the stated option

P(C|D)=P(CD)P(D)=50171111171=50111

The respondent's probability of not choosing to repair the car and being angry is 50/111.

03

Determining whether the following events are independent or not 

Both events, repairing the car and feeling guilty, will be independent if the occurrence of feeling guilty does not affect the occurrence of repairing the car.

P(A) = Respondents choosing to repair the car

P(B) = Respondents feeling guilty

P(A|B)=P(A)6057=57171But,605757171

Therefore, repairing the car and feeling guilty are not independent events.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Museum management. Refer to the Museum Management and Curatorship (June 2010) study of the criteria used to evaluate museum performance, Exercise 2.14 (p. 74). Recall that the managers of 30 leading museums of contemporary art were asked to provide the performance measure used most often. A summary of the results is reproduced in the table. Performance Measure Number of Museums Total visitors 8 Paying visitors 5 Big shows 6 Funds raised 7 Members 4


Performance Measure

Number of Museums

Total visitors

8

Paying visitors

5

Big shows

6

Funds raised

7

Members

4

a. If one of the 30 museums is selected at random, what is the probability that the museum uses total visitors or funds raised most often as a performance measure?

b. Consider two museums of contemporary art randomly selected from all such museums. Of interest is whether or not the museums use total visitors or funds raised most often as a performance measure. Use a tree diagram to aid in listing the sample points for this problem.

c. Assign reasonable probabilities to the sample points of part b.

d. Refer to parts b and c. Find the probability that both museums use total visitors or funds raised most often as a performance measure.

Chance of winning at 鈥渃raps.鈥 A version of the dice game鈥渃raps鈥 is played in the following manner. A player starts by rolling two balanced dice. If the roll (the sum of the two numbers showing on the dice) results in a 7 or 11, the player wins. If the roll results in a 2 or a 3 (called craps), the player loses. For any other roll outcome, the player continues to throw the dice until the original roll outcome recurs (in which case the player wins) or until a 7 occurs

(in which case the player loses).

a. What is the probability that a player wins the game on the first roll of the dice?

b. What is the probability that a player loses the game on the first roll of the dice?

c. If the player throws a total of 4 on the first roll, what is the probability that the game ends (win or lose) on the next roll?

Consider the experiment depicted by the Venn diagram, with the sample space S containing five sample points. The sample points are assigned the following probabilities:

P (E1) = .20, P (E2) = .30, P (E3)= .30, P (E4) = .10, P (E5) = .10.

a. Calculate P (A), P (B), and P (AB).

b. Suppose we know that event A has occurred, so that the reduced sample space consists of the three sample points in A鈥攏amely, E1, E2, and E3. Use the formula for conditional probability to adjust the probabilities of these three sample points for the knowledge that A has occurred [i.e., P (Ei/A)]. Verify that the conditional probabilities are in the same proportion to one another as the original sample point probabilities.

c. Calculate the conditional probabilityP (E1/A)in two ways: (1) Add the adjusted (conditional) probabilities of the sample points in the intersection AB, as these represent the event that B occurs given that A has occurred; (2) use the formula for conditional probability:

P (B/A) =P (AB)P (A)

Verify that the two methods yield the same result.

d. Are events A and B independent? Why or why not?

Two fair dice are tossed, and the face on each die is observed.

  1. Use a tree diagram to find the 36 sample points contained in the sample space.
  2. Assign probabilities to the sample points in part a.
  3. Find the probability of each of the following events:

A = {3showing on each die}

B = {Sum of two numbers showing is}

C = {Sum of two numbers showing is even}

Two fair dice are tossed, and the following events are defined:

A: {Sum of the numbers showing is odd.}

B: {Sum of the numbers showing is 9, 11, or 12.}

Are events A and B independent? Why?

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