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On-the-job arrogance and task performance. Human Performance (Vol. 23, 2010) published the results of a study that found that arrogant workers are more likely to have poor performance ratings. Suppose that 15% of all full-time workers exhibit arrogant behaviors on the job and that 10% of all full-time workers will receive a poor performance rating. Also, assume that 5% of all full-time workers exhibit arrogant behaviors and receive a poor performance rating. Let A be the event that a full-time worker exhibits arrogant behavior. Let B be the event that a full-time worker will receive a poor performance rating.

a. Are the events A and B mutually exclusive? Explain.

b. Find P(B/A).

c. Are the events A and B independent? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified

Answer

  1. No
  2. 0.34
  3. No

Step by step solution

01

Step-by-Step SolutionStep 1: Introduction

In a probability experiment, if an event A and B are two independent occurrences, the chance that both events occur at the same time is:

P (AB) = P (A) x P (B)

In the case of dependent events, the likelihood that both occurrences occur concurrently is:

P (B/A) =P (AB)P (A)

02

Determine whether or not occurrences A and B are mutually exclusive.

Here, we have

P (A) = 15%=15100=0.15

P (B) = 10%=10100=0.1

P (AB)= 5%=5100=0.05

Only one of the two occurrences may occur at the same time for the two events to be mutually exclusive, which indicates that:

P (AB) = 0

Therefore, the two events are not mutually exclusive.

03

Find the required probability

P (B/A) =P (AB)P (A)=0.050.15= 0.34

Hence, the required probability is0.34.

04

Determine the events A and B are independent or not

To be independent, the chance of one event occurring does not impact the probability of the other, which indicates that:

P (AB) = P (A)P (B)P (AB) = 0.150.1= 0.015

Therefore, the two events are not independent.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

An experiment results in one of three mutually exclusive events, A, B, or C. It is known that P (A)= .30, P(B)= .55 , and P(C)= .15. Find each of the following probabilities:

a. P(AB)

b.P(AC)

c. P (A/B)

d. P(BC)

e. Are B and C independent events? Explain.

Guilt in decision making.Refer to the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making(January 2007) study of theeffect of guilt emotion on how a decision maker focuseson a problem, Exercise 3.48 (p. 183). The results (numberresponding in each category) for the 171 study participantsare reproduced in the table below. Suppose one of the 171participants is selected at random.

Emotional

State

Choose

Stated Option

Do Not Choose

Stated Option

Totals

Guilt

Anger

Neutral

45

8

7

12

50

49

57

58

56

Totals

60

111

171

a.Given that the respondent is assigned to the guilty state, what is the probability that the respondent chooses the stated option?

b.If the respondent does not choose to repair the car, what is the probability that the respondent is in the anger state?

c.Are the events {repair the car} and {guilty state }
independent?

Museum management. Refer to the Museum Management and Curatorship (June 2010) study of the criteria used to evaluate museum performance, Exercise 2.14 (p. 74). Recall that the managers of 30 leading museums of contemporary art were asked to provide the performance measure used most often. A summary of the results is reproduced in the table. Performance Measure Number of Museums Total visitors 8 Paying visitors 5 Big shows 6 Funds raised 7 Members 4


Performance Measure

Number of Museums

Total visitors

8

Paying visitors

5

Big shows

6

Funds raised

7

Members

4

a. If one of the 30 museums is selected at random, what is the probability that the museum uses total visitors or funds raised most often as a performance measure?

b. Consider two museums of contemporary art randomly selected from all such museums. Of interest is whether or not the museums use total visitors or funds raised most often as a performance measure. Use a tree diagram to aid in listing the sample points for this problem.

c. Assign reasonable probabilities to the sample points of part b.

d. Refer to parts b and c. Find the probability that both museums use total visitors or funds raised most often as a performance measure.

A number between 1 and 10, inclusive, is randomly chosen, and the events A and B are defined as follows:

A: [The number is even.]

B: [The number is less than 7.]

a. Identify the sample points in the event AB.

b. Identify the sample points in the event AB.

c. Which expression represents the event that the number is even or less than 7 or both?

d. Which expression represents the event that the number is both even and less than 7?

Confidence of feedback information for improving quality. In the semiconductor manufacturing industry, a key to improved quality is having confidence in the feedback generated by production equipment. A study of the confidence level of feedback information was published in Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence(Vol. 26, 2013). At any point in time during the production process, a report can be generated. The report is classified as either 鈥淥K鈥 or 鈥渘ot OK.鈥 Let Arepresent the event that an 鈥淥K鈥 report is generated in any time period (t).Let Brepresent the event that an 鈥淥K鈥 report is generated in the next time period. Consider the following probabilities:

P(A)=0.8,PBA=0.9, andPBAC=0.5.

a. Express the event B|Ain the words of the problem.

b. Express the event B|ACin the words of the problem.

c. FindP(AC).

d. FindP(AB).

e. FindP(ACB).

f. Use the probabilities, parts d and e, to find P(B).

g. Use Bayes鈥 Rule to find P(A|B), i.e., the probability that an 鈥淥K鈥 report was generated in one time period(t), given that an 鈥淥K鈥 report is generated in the next time period(t+1).

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