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Chapter 3: Q121SE (page 207)

Chance of an Avon sale.The probability that an Avon salesperson sells beauty products to a prospective customer on the first visit to the customer is .4. If the salesperson fails to make the sale on the first visit, the probability that the sale will be made on the second visit is .65. The salesperson never visits a prospective customer more than twice. What is the probability that the salesperson will make a sale to a particular customer?

Short Answer

Expert verified

The probability that the salesperson will make a sale to a particular customer is 0.79.

Step by step solution

01

Important formula

The formula for probability isP=FavourableoutcomesTotaloutcomes

02

Find the probability that the salesperson will make a sale to a particular customer

Here, the probability that an Avon salesperson sells beauty products to a prospective customer on the first visit to the customer is=P(S)=0.4

If the distributor does not sell upon that second appointment P(D|SC)=0.65.

Now,

P(SC)=1鈭�0.4=0.6

Now, the required probability is:

P(T)=P(S)+P(SC).P(D|SC)=0.4+(0.6)(0.65)=0.79

Therefore, the probability that the salesperson will make a sale to a particular customer is 0.79.

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Chance of winning at 鈥渃raps.鈥� A version of the dice game鈥渃raps鈥� is played in the following manner. A player starts by rolling two balanced dice. If the roll (the sum of the two numbers showing on the dice) results in a 7 or 11, the player wins. If the roll results in a 2 or a 3 (called craps), the player loses. For any other roll outcome, the player continues to throw the dice until the original roll outcome recurs (in which case the player wins) or until a 7 occurs

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(1) H HHHHHHHHH

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