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Another question asked in the Gallup poll in Exercise 1 was: "Do you think that rich people in America today are happier than you, less happy, or about the same?" (Newport, 2012). Of the 1008 respondents, only \(11 \%\) said "happier," \(27 \%\) said "less happy," \(57 \%\) said "about the same," and the rest were "unsure." a. Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of the population who would have answered "less happy" if asked. b. Convert the interval in part (a) into a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the percentage of the population who would have responded "less happy" if asked. c. Write a few sentences interpreting the interval you found in part (b).

Short Answer

Expert verified
We found a confidence interval for the proportion as (0.2427, 0.2973) and for the percentage as (24.27%, 29.73%). This means we are 95% confident that the true percentage lies within this range.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Proportion

First, identify the proportion of the total respondents who answered "less happy." Out of 1008 respondents, 27% said "less happy." To find this proportion, calculate: \( \hat{p} = \frac{27}{100} = 0.27 \).
02

Find the Standard Error

To calculate the standard error for the proportion \( \hat{p} \), use the formula: \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1 - \hat{p})}{n}} \]Substitute \( \hat{p} = 0.27 \) and \( n = 1008 \): \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.27 \times 0.73}{1008}} \] Calculate \( SE \).
03

Calculate the Confidence Interval for the Proportion

For a 95% confidence interval, determine the critical value (often \( z \approx 1.96 \) for large samples). Then calculate the confidence interval as follows: \[ \hat{p} \pm z \times SE \]Calculate the lower and upper bounds of this interval.
04

Convert Proportion Confidence Interval to Percentage

Multiply the lower and upper bounds of the confidence interval by 100 to convert the proportion interval to a percentage interval.
05

Interpret the Confidence Interval

Write a few sentences to interpret the confidence interval. For example, "We are 95% confident that the true percentage of the population who would answer 'less happy' falls within the calculated range."

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Proportion Calculation
In statistics, calculating the proportion is a crucial step when dealing with categorical data. Here, the first task is to identify the proportion of those respondents who answered 'less happy.' The Gallup poll indicates that out of 1008 respondents, 27% chose this option. Hence, the proportion is given by the formula \( \hat{p} = \frac{27}{100} = 0.27 \).

This value, \( \hat{p} \), represents the sample proportion. It's important because it sets the groundwork for further statistical analysis, such as calculating the confidence interval. Knowing how to determine this proportion is fundamental when working with surveys, as it helps to interpret how a sample's response might reflect in the larger population effectively. This proportion serves as an estimator for making inferences about the overall population.
Statistical Interpretation
Interpreting statistical results, especially confidence intervals, is essential for understanding survey data. The confidence interval gives a range within which we expect the true population parameter to lie with a certain level of confidence, here 95%.

To determine the confidence interval of the proportion, we first calculate the standard error (SE), which quantifies the uncertainty associated with our estimate \( \hat{p} \). This is calculated using the formula: \[SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1 - \hat{p})}{n}}\]Here, \( n \) is the sample size.
  • The critical value, typically found from a standard normal distribution, is approximately 1.96 for a 95% confidence level.
  • The confidence interval is then computed as: \( \hat{p} \pm 1.96 \times SE \).
The result offers a lower and an upper bound, suggesting that we are 95% confident the real proportion in the population falls within this range. This confidence interval allows us to make a statistical interpretation about how the proportion calculated from our sample could theoretically reflect in a broader context.
Survey Analysis
Survey analysis often involves collecting, interpreting, and presenting data collected from a sample, as seen in this Gallup poll. A primary goal is to make inferences about the larger population based on this sample. In this particular case, the survey seeks to understand public opinion on whether rich people are perceived as more or less happy than others.

1. A linchpin of survey analysis is the confidence interval, which gives insight into the degree of uncertainty around the sample result.
2. We use this range to extrapolate findings from the sample to the general population, ensuring our conclusions are statistically sound.
3. In practical terms, a statement like, "We are 95% confident that the true percentage of people who believe the rich are 'less happy' ranges from X% to Y%," communicates the degree to which we trust that the sample data mirrors the broader population sentiment.

Ultimately, this analysis extends beyond raw numbers to convey meaning and insights into a population's views. Proper survey analysis assists in providing a more informed and educated understanding of large-scale opinions and trends.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

One of the questions asked in a Gallup poll taken in May, 2012 , in the United States was: "All in all, if you had your choice, would you want to be rich, or not?" (Newport, 2012). (A previous question had asked respondents if they thought they were rich, and the \(2 \%\) who said yes were not asked this question.) of the 1008 people asked this question, 635 said yes, they would want to be rich. a. What is the sample proportion of respondents who said yes, they would want to be rich? b. Find the standard error to accompany the proportion you found in part (a). c. Use your answers from parts (a) and (b) to construct a 95\% confidence interval for the population proportion who want to be rich. d. Interpret the confidence interval found in part (c) by writing a few sentences explaining what it means.

In a special double issue of Time magazine, the cover story featured Pope John Paul II as "Man of the Year" (26 December 1994-2 January 1995, pp. 74-76). As part of the story, Time reported on the results of a survey of 507 adult American Catholics, taken by telephone on December \(7-8 .\) It was also reported that "sampling error is \(\pm 4.4 \% . "\) a. One question asked was, "Do you favor allowing women to be priests?" to which 59\% of the respondents answered yes. Using the reported margin of error of 4.4\%, calculate a 95\% confidence interval for the response to this question. Write a sentence interpreting the interval that could be understood by someone who knows nothing about statistics. Be careful about specifying the correct population. b. Calculate a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the question in part (a), using the formula in this chapter rather than the reported margin of error. Compare your answer to the answer in part (a). c. Another question in the survey was, "Is it possible to disagree with the Pope and still be a good Catholic?" to which 89\% of respondents said yes. Using the formula in this chapter, compute a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the true percentage who would answer yes to the question. Now compute a \(95 \%\) confidence interval using the reported margin of error of \(4.4 \%\) Compare your two intervals. d. If you computed your intervals correctly, you would have found that the two intervals in parts (a) and (b) were quite similar to each other, whereas the two intervals in part (c) were not. In part (c), the interval computed using the reported margin of error was wider than the one computed using the formula. Explain why the two methods for computing the intervals agreed more closely for the survey question in parts (a) and (b) than for the survey question in part (c).

Parade Magazine reported that "nearly 3200 readers dialed a 900 number to respond to a survey in our Jan. 8 cover story on America's young people and violence" (19 February 1995, p. 20). Of those responding, "63.3\% say they have been victims or personally know a victim of violent crime." Can the results quoted and methods in this chapter legitimately be used to compute a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of Americans who fit that description? If so, compute the interval. If not, explain why not. (Note that calling a 900 number was not a free call at the time; the caller was charged a fee.)

Suppose 200 different researchers all randomly select samples of 400 individuals from a population. Each researcher uses his or her sample to compute a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion that has blue eyes in the population. About how many of the confidence intervals will cover the population proportion? About how many of the intervals will not cover the population proportion? Briefly explain how you determined your answers.

Does a confidence interval for a proportion estimate a sample proportion, or a population proportion?

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