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91Ó°ÊÓ

The financial manager of a large department store chain selected a random sample of 200 of its credit card customers and found that 136 had incurred an interest charge during the previous year because of an unpaid balance. a. Compute a \(90 \%\) CI for the true proportion of credit card customers who incurred an interest charge during the previous year. b. If the desired width of the \(90 \%\) interval is .05, what sample size is necessary to ensure this? c. Does the upper limit of the interval in part (a) specify a \(90 \%\) upper confidence bound for the proportion being estimated? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) CI is (0.6246, 0.7354). b) Sample size required is 1512. c) Yes, it acts as a 90% upper confidence bound.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Sample Proportion

The sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) is calculated as the number of successes (customers who incurred interest) divided by the total sample size. Here, \( \hat{p} = \frac{136}{200} = 0.68 \).
02

Determine the Z-Score for 90% Confidence Interval

For a 90% confidence level, the Z-score (Z*) from the standard normal distribution is approximately 1.645, because a 90% confidence interval corresponds to 5% in each tail of the normal distribution.
03

Calculate the Standard Error

The standard error (SE) for the sample proportion is given by the formula \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.68 \cdot 0.32}{200}} \approx 0.0337 \].
04

Calculate the Confidence Interval

The confidence interval is determined using the formula \[ \hat{p} \pm Z^* \times SE \].Substitute the values:\[ 0.68 \pm 1.645 \times 0.0337 \approx 0.68 \pm 0.0554 \].Therefore, the 90% confidence interval is approximately \((0.6246, 0.7354)\).
05

Calculate Required Sample Size for Desired Width

The desired width of the interval is 0.05. The formula for sample size to achieve a specific width is \[ n = \left(\frac{Z^*}{d}\right)^2 \hat{p}(1-\hat{p}) \].Using \( d = 0.025 \) (since width is \( 2 \times d \)), \[ n = \left(\frac{1.645}{0.025}\right)^2 \cdot 0.68 \cdot 0.32 \approx 1512 \].Therefore, a sample size of at least 1512 is required.
06

Analyze Upper Limit for Confidence Bound

The upper limit of the confidence interval \(0.7354\) indeed acts as the upper confidence bound for the true proportion at a 90% confidence level. This implies that we are 90% confident that the true proportion is below 0.7354.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
The sample proportion, often denoted as \( \hat{p} \), is a vital concept in statistics when you're working with proportions. It's a straightforward way to estimate a population proportion based on a sample from that population. In the context of our exercise, we're looking at credit card customers who incurred an interest charge. From a sample of 200 customers, 136 incurred interest, giving us a sample proportion \( \hat{p} = \frac{136}{200} = 0.68 \). This means 68% of the sampled credit card users had unpaid balances leading to interest charges. By pointing to a portion of the whole, sample proportions help formulate expectations about an entire population based on smaller groups.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) is a measure in statistics that provides an estimate of the variability or dispersion of a sample statistic from its expected value. When we deal with proportions, the standard error is calculated using the formula \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}}, \]where \(\hat{p}\) is the sample proportion, and \(n\) is the sample size. In our scenario, with \(\hat{p} = 0.68\) and a sample size of 200, the standard error becomes approximately 0.0337. The smaller the standard error, the more precise our estimate of the population proportion is. It essentially helps in assessing how much the sample proportion might vary from the true population proportion.
Z-Score
The Z-score is a statistical measure that tells us how many standard deviations an element is from the mean of a set of data. When constructing confidence intervals, the Z-score determines how far out we extend from the sample statistic to capture the true population parameter with a given level of confidence. For a 90% confidence interval, the Z-score is approximately 1.645. This specific Z-score is pivotal as it represents the point on the standard normal distribution where the area under the curve matches the desired confidence level. Essentially, the Z-score helps us decide the range around our sample statistic, such that we are confident the true population parameter falls within this range 90% of the time.
Sample Size Calculation
Calculating the necessary sample size is an important step when aiming for a specific confidence interval width. The formula used is \[ n = \left(\frac{Z^*}{d}\right)^2 \hat{p}(1-\hat{p}) \],where \(d\) is half the desired width of the confidence interval, \(Z^*\) is the Z-score, and \(\hat{p}\) is the sample proportion. In our problem, we desire a confidence interval width of 0.05, translating to \(d = 0.025\), and use a Z-score of 1.645. Substituting these values into the formula provides us with a required sample size of approximately 1512. This calculation is critical for designing surveys and experiments to ensure that they are cost-effective and meet the precision requirements.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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