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In an area having sandy soil, 50 small trees of a certain type were planted, and another 50 trees were planted in an area having clay soil. Let \(X=\) the number of trees planted in sandy soil that survive 1 year and \(Y=\) the number of trees planted in clay soil that survive 1 year. If the probability that a tree planted in sandy soil will survive 1 year is \(.7\) and the probability of 1-year survival in clay soil is .6, compute an approximation to \(P(-5 \leq X-Y \leq 5\) ) (do not bother with the continuity correction).

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability is approximately 0.4826.

Step by step solution

01

Identify Random Variables

We define two random variables for this scenario: - Let \( X \) represent the number of trees that survive one year in sandy soil. - Let \( Y \) represent the number of trees that survive one year in clay soil. Each of \( X \) and \( Y \) follows a binomial distribution.
02

Define Distributions

\( X \sim Binomial(50, 0.7) \) because 50 trees are planted in sandy soil with a survival probability of 0.7. \( Y \sim Binomial(50, 0.6) \) because 50 trees are planted in clay soil with a survival probability of 0.6.
03

Use Central Limit Theorem

Since both random variables represent large binomial distributions (n=50), we approximate each with a normal distribution: \[ X \sim N(\mu_x=35, \sigma_x^2=10.5) \] \[ Y \sim N(\mu_y=30, \sigma_y^2=12) \] These are derived from the formulas \( \mu = np \) and \( \sigma^2 = np(1-p) \).
04

Find Distribution of X-Y

The difference \( X - Y \) is normally distributed. The mean is \( \mu_{X-Y} = 35 - 30 = 5 \) and the variance is \( \sigma_{X-Y}^2 = 10.5 + 12 = 22.5 \). Thus, \( X-Y \sim N(5, 22.5) \).
05

Standardize the Distribution

To find \( P(-5 \leq X-Y \leq 5) \), we standardize the values using the Z-score formula: \( Z = \frac{X-\mu}{\sigma} \). For \( Z_1 \): \( Z_1 = \frac{-5-5}{\sqrt{22.5}} \approx -2.11 \) For \( Z_2 \): \( Z_2 = \frac{5-5}{\sqrt{22.5}} = 0 \).
06

Calculate Probability using Z-Scores

Use the Z-table or standard normal distribution table to find probabilities for \( Z_1 \) and \( Z_2 \). \( P(Z \leq -2.11) \approx 0.0174 \) and \( P(Z \leq 0) = 0.5 \). Thus, \( P(-5 \leq X-Y \leq 5) = P(0) - P(-2.11) \approx 0.5 - 0.0174 = 0.4826 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Distribution
In the problem, we are dealing with a type of statistical distribution called the Binomial Distribution. Both scenarios—trees planted in sandy soil and those in clay soil—are examples of binomially distributed cases. A binomial distribution is used when we have a fixed number of independent trials, each with two possible outcomes: success or failure. In our exercise, survival of a tree represents a "success," while not surviving is a "failure."

To formally define a binomial distribution, we use parameters like the number of trials \(n\) and the probability of success \(p\). For the sandy soil, let's denote the number of trees as \(n = 50\) and the survival probability as \(p = 0.7\). This is represented as \( X \sim \text{Binomial}(n=50, p=0.7) \). Similarly, for the clay soil, \( Y \sim \text{Binomial}(n=50, p=0.6) \).

Helpful features of a binomial distribution include:
  • Each trial is independent, meaning the outcome of one doesn't affect another.
  • The probability of success \(p\) stays constant across trials.
  • The random variable, like \( X \) or \( Y \), counts the number of successes in \(n\) trials.
This foundational understanding sets the stage for converting our binomial distribution into a normal distribution using another statistical principle called the Central Limit Theorem.
Normal Distribution Approximation
Our journey from binomial to normal distribution is fueled by the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). The CLT states that as the number of trials \(n\) becomes large, the probability distribution of the sum (or average) of random variables, each independently drawn from a random distribution, converges towards a normal distribution. This is especially useful when \(n\) is large, like our scenario with 50 trees.

This approximation allows us to swap our binomial distributions for normal distributions. Here's how it works: for a binomial distribution \(X \sim \text{Binomial}(n, p)\), the mean \(\mu\) and variance \(\sigma^2\) of the equivalent normal distribution are calculated using:

\[ \mu = np \]
\[ \sigma^2 = np(1-p) \]

For sandy soil, the approximate normal distribution is \( X \sim N(\mu_x=35, \sigma_x^2=10.5) \). For clay soil, it becomes \( Y \sim N(\mu_y=30, \sigma_y^2=12) \).

The usefulness lies in its ability to enable calculations of probabilities related to the normal distribution, such as the likelihood that \(X-Y\) falls within a specified range. This approximation simplifies the process of solving real-world problems.
Z-Scores
Z-Scores are the key to unlocking probabilities with a normal distribution. A Z-score measures how many standard deviations a data point is from the mean. By converting any normal distribution to Z-scores, we can use standard normal distribution tables (which are readily available) to find probabilities.

Let’s illustrate this with our exercise. We want to calculate the probability that \(-5 \leq X-Y \leq 5\). First, understand that our \(X-Y\) distribution has a mean \(\mu_{X-Y} = 5\) and a variance \(\sigma_{X-Y}^2 = 22.5\), making \(X-Y \sim N(5, 22.5)\).

To standardize, we apply the Z-score formula:

\[ Z = \frac{X-\mu}{\sigma} \]

Applying to our interval, we compute for the boundaries:\
  • For lower boundary: \( Z_1 = \frac{-5-5}{\sqrt{22.5}} \approx -2.11 \)
  • For upper boundary: \( Z_2 = \frac{5-5}{\sqrt{22.5}} = 0 \)
These Z-scores transform the problem to finding \(P(Z_1 \leq Z \leq Z_2)\). This is achieved using a Z-table where \( P(Z \leq -2.11) \approx 0.0174\) and \( P(Z \leq 0) = 0.5\). Thus, the probability \( P(-5 \leq X-Y \leq 5) = 0.5 - 0.0174 = 0.4826 \). Z-scores simplify understanding and calculating probabilities by aligning diverse situations back to a common framework: the standard normal distribution.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The number of customers waiting for gift-wrap service at a department store is an rv \(X\) with possible values \(0,1,2,3,4\) and corresponding probabilities \(.1, .2, .3, .25, .15\). A randomly selected customer will have 1,2 , or 3 packages for wrapping with probabilities \(.6, .3\), and \(.1\), respectively. Let \(Y=\) the total number of packages to be wrapped for the customers waiting in line (assume that the number of packages submitted by one customer is independent of the number submitted by any other customer). a. Determine \(P(X=3, Y=3)\), i.e., \(p(3,3)\). b. Determine \(p(4,11)\).

A binary communication channel transmits a sequence of "bits" ( 0 s and \(1 \mathrm{~s})\). Suppose that for any particular bit transmitted, there is a \(10 \%\) chance of a transmission error (a 0 becoming a 1 or a 1 becoming a 0 ). Assume that bit errors occur independently of one another. a. Consider transmitting 1000 bits. What is the approximate probability that at most 125 transmission errors occur? b. Suppose the same 1000-bit message is sent two different times independently of one another. What is the approximate probability that the number of errors in the first transmission is within 50 of the number of errors in the second?

Let \(X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots, X_{100}\) denote the actual net weights of 100 randomly selected 50 -lb bags of fertilizer. a. If the expected weight of each bag is 50 and the variance is 1 , calculate \(P(49.9 \leq \bar{X} \leq 50.1\) ) (approximately) using the CLT. b. If the expected weight is \(49.8 \mathrm{lb}\) rather than \(50 \mathrm{lb}\) so that on average bags are underfilled, calculate \(P(49.9 \leq \bar{X} \leq 50.1)\).

When an automobile is stopped by a roving safety patrol, each tire is checked for tire wear, and each headlight is checked to see whether it is properly aimed. Let \(X\) denote the number of headlights that need adjustment, and let \(Y\) denote the number of defective tires. a. If \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent with \(p_{X}(0)=.5, p_{X}(1)=.3\), \(p_{X}(2)=.2\), and \(p_{Y}(0)=.6, p_{Y}(1)=.1, p_{Y}(2)=p_{Y}(3)=\) \(.05, p_{Y}(4)=.2\), display the joint pmf of \((X, Y)\) in a joint probability table. b. Compute \(P(X \leq 1\) and \(Y \leq 1)\) from the joint probability table, and verify that it equals the product \(P(X \leq 1)\) • \(P(Y \leq 1)\) c. What is \(P(X+Y=0)\) (the probability of no violations)? d. Compute \(P(X+Y \leq 1)\).

A stockroom currently has 30 components of a certain type, of which 8 were provided by supplier 1,10 by supplier 2 , and 12 by supplier 3. Six of these are to be randomly selected for a particular assembly. Let \(X=\) the number of supplier 1s components selected, \(Y=\) the number of supplier \(2 \mathrm{~s}\) components selected, and \(p(x, y)\) denote the joint pmf of \(X\) and \(Y\). a. What is \(p(3,2)\) ? [Hint: Each sample of size 6 is equally likely to be selected. Therefore, \(p(3,2)=\) (number of outcomes with \(X=3\) and \(Y=2) /\) (total number of outcomes). Now use the product rule for counting to obtain the numerator and denominator.] b. Using the logic of part (a), obtain \(p(x, y)\). (This can be thought of as a multivariate hypergeometric distributionsampling without replacement from a finite population consisting of more than two categories.)

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