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The article "The Load-Life Relationship for M50 Bearings with Silicon Nitride Ceramic Balls" (Lubrication Engr., 1984: 153-159) reports the accompanying data on bearing load life (million revs.) for bearings tested at a \(6.45 \mathrm{kN}\) load. \(\begin{array}{rrrrrrr}47.1 & 68.1 & 68.1 & 90.8 & 103.6 & 106.0 & 115.0 \\\ 126.0 & 146.6 & 229.0 & 240.0 & 240.0 & 278.0 & 278.0 \\ 289.0 & 289.0 & 367.0 & 385.9 & 392.0 & 505.0 & \end{array}\) a. Construct a normal probability plot. Is normality plausible? b. Construct a Weibull probability plot. Is the Weibull distribution family plausible?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Normality is not plausible; the Weibull distribution is more plausible.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding a Normal Probability Plot

A normal probability plot helps us visually assess whether a data set follows a normal distribution. In this plot, the data points are plotted against a theoretical normal distribution such that if the data is normally distributed, the points should approximately form a straight line.
02

Creating the Normal Probability Plot

Plot the given bearing load life data against a normal distribution on graph paper or using statistical software. The x-axis represents the theoretical quantiles of a standard normal distribution, while the y-axis represents the ordered data values.
03

Analyzing the Normal Probability Plot

Check if the points in the plot approximately form a straight line. If they do, it indicates that the data is normally distributed. If the points deviate significantly from a straight line, normality is not a plausible assumption.
04

Understanding a Weibull Probability Plot

A Weibull probability plot is similar to a normal probability plot but is used to test if data follows a Weibull distribution. A straight line pattern in a Weibull plot suggests the Weibull distribution is a good fit.
05

Creating the Weibull Probability Plot

For the Weibull plot, order the load life data and plot it using a Weibull scale where the x-axis is the logarithm of cycle life, and the y-axis is a Weibull scale. Use statistical software to calculate the plotting positions.
06

Analyzing the Weibull Probability Plot

Examine if the data points form approximately a straight line. A linear pattern supports the plausibility of the Weibull distribution. Deviations from linearity suggest that the data do not fit a Weibull distribution well.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Probability Plot
A normal probability plot is a graphical technique to assess if a data set resembles a normal distribution. The central idea is grounded in how our data aligns with a straight line when plotted against expected values from a truly normal distribution. Here's a simple breakdown to help you understand:

To create this plot:
  • Arrange your data in ascending order.
  • Plot the data against theoretical quantiles of a normal distribution. Here, the x-axis represents theoretical quantiles, and the y-axis showcases the actual data values.
When visually analyzing the plot, observe if the points contour a straight line closely. This linearity indicates that your data likely follow a normal distribution. If the data dramatically deviate from the straight line, normality might not be plausible.

The beauty of the normal probability plot lies in its simplicity, helping us intuitively understand whether or not we can assume normality in our data set.
Weibull Probability Plot
A Weibull probability plot is akin to the normal probability plot but is used explicitly to test adherence to a Weibull distribution. This method is especially handy for reliability and life data analysis. This plot functions on the principle that if your data follows a Weibull distribution, the plotted points should form a straight line. Let's break it down further:

Follow these steps to create a Weibull probability plot:
  • Order your data values.
  • Graph using a Weibull scale, where the x-axis often involves the natural logarithm of cycle life and the y-axis is scaled to Weibull units.
  • Statistical software can help you compute precise plotting positions.
As you examine your plot, focus on the linearity of the points. If they align well in a straight line, the Weibull distribution might be a good fit for your data. Significant deviation implies that the Weibull distribution might not accurately represent your data.

This graphical analysis is powerful and straightforward, supporting decisions related to modeling data within a Weibull framework.
Probability Distributions
Probability distributions are foundational concepts in statistics, providing a comprehensive description of how random variables behave. Broadly, they help us predict the likelihood of different potential outcomes in a random event.

Here are some important types of probability distributions:
  • **Normal Distribution**: Central in statistics, known for its bell-shaped curve and applicability in various domains.
  • **Weibull Distribution**: Commonly used in reliability analysis and life data, great for assessing "time to failure" data.
  • **Binomial and Poisson Distributions**: Useful for discrete data representing counts or number of successes.
Understanding these distributions allows us to model data appropriately and make informed decisions based on the probabilistic nature of our data.

Probabilistic modeling is crucial in making predictions about future events and understanding past data behaviors. Whether examining normality or utilizing the Weibull model, accurate interpretation of probability distributions aids in navigating the complexities within statistical data analysis.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Let \(X=\) the time between two successive arrivals at the drive-up window of a local bank. If \(X\) has an exponential distribution with \(\lambda=1\) (which is identical to a standard gamma distribution with \(\alpha=1\) ), compute the following: a. The expected time between two successive arrivals b. The standard deviation of the time between successive arrivals c. \(P(X \leq 4)\) d. \(P(2 \leq X \leq 5)\)

In each case, determine the value of the constant \(c\) that makes the probability statement correct. a. \(\Phi(c)=.9838\) b. \(P(0 \leq Z \leq c)=.291\) c. \(P(c \leq Z)=.121\) d. \(P(-c \leq Z \leq c)=.668\) e. \(P(c \leq|Z|)=.016\)

Let \(X\) denote the distance \((\mathrm{m})\) that an animal moves from its birth site to the first territorial vacancy it encounters. Suppose that for banner- tailed kangaroo rats, \(X\) has an exponential distribution with parameter \(\lambda=.01386\) (as suggested in the article "Competition and Dispersal from Multiple Nests," Ecology, 1997: 873-883). a. What is the probability that the distance is at most \(100 \mathrm{~m}\) ? At most \(200 \mathrm{~m}\) ? Between 100 and \(200 \mathrm{~m}\) ? b. What is the probability that distance exceeds the mean distance by more than 2 standard deviations? c. What is the value of the median distance?

Let \(X\) be the temperature in \({ }^{\circ} \mathrm{C}\) at which a certain chemical reaction takes place, and let \(Y\) be the temperature in \({ }^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\) (so \(Y=1.8 X+32\) ). a. If the median of the \(X\) distribution is \(\tilde{\mu}\), show that \(1.8 \tilde{\mu}+\) 32 is the median of the \(Y\) distribution. b. How is the 90th percentile of the \(Y\) distribution related to the 90 th percentile of the \(X\) distribution? Verify your conjecture. c. More generally, if \(Y=a X+b\), how is any particular percentile of the \(Y\) distribution related to the corresponding percentile of the \(X\) distribution?

A college professor never finishes his lecture before the end of the hour and always finishes his lectures within \(2 \mathrm{~min}\) after the hour. Let \(X=\) the time that elapses between the end of the hour and the end of the lecture and suppose the pdf of \(X\) is $$ f(x)=\left\\{\begin{array}{cl} k x^{2} & 0 \leq x \leq 2 \\ 0 & \text { otherwise } \end{array}\right. $$ a. Find the value of \(k\) and draw the corresponding density curve. [Hint: Total area under the graph of \(f(x)\) is 1.] b. What is the probability that the lecture ends within \(1 \mathrm{~min}\) of the end of the hour? c. What is the probability that the lecture continues beyond the hour for between 60 and \(90 \mathrm{sec}\) ? d. What is the probability that the lecture continues for at least \(90 \mathrm{sec}\) beyond the end of the hour?

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