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A newsstand has ordered five copies of a certain issue of a photography magazine. Let \(X=\) the number of individuals who come in to purchase this magazine. If \(X\) has a Poisson distribution with parameter \(\lambda=4\), what is the expected number of copies that are sold?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The expected number of copies sold is 4.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We need to find the expected number of copies of the magazine sold, given that the number of individuals coming to purchase follows a Poisson distribution with parameter \( \lambda = 4 \).
02

Recall the Poisson Distribution

For a Poisson random variable \( X \) with parameter \( \lambda \), the expected value \( E(X) \) is equal to \( \lambda \). This gives us the average number of events (individuals buying the magazines) occurring in a fixed interval.
03

Identify the Expected Number of Purchasers

Since \( X \) is Poisson distributed with \( \lambda = 4 \), the expected number of individuals interested in buying the magazine is \( E(X) = 4 \).
04

Calculate the Expected Number of Copies Sold

The newsstand has 5 copies available. If more than 5 individuals want to purchase the magazine, only 5 copies can be sold. On average, 4 individuals are expected to come to purchase, which is less than the number of copies available.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Expected Value
In probability theory, the expected value is like finding the center of gravity for a distribution of outcomes. It tells us the average or mean of the random variable. To find the expected value in the context of a Poisson distribution, we rely on its parameter, \(\lambda\).

For a Poisson distribution, the expected value \(E(X)\) is straightforwardly equal to the parameter itself, \(\lambda\). This parameter represents both the mean and the variance of the distribution. In our exercise, \(\lambda = 4\), so the expected number of individuals coming to buy the magazine is also 4.

Why is the expected value important? It provides an estimate for what might happen in the average case over many repetitions of the scenario. It doesn't tell us about any one specific event, but rather what we might expect on average.
Probability Theory
Probability theory is the mathematical framework for quantifying uncertainty. It allows us to understand how likely events are to occur. The Poisson distribution, used in our task, is a powerful tool within probability theory for modeling random events.

A Poisson distribution can describe the number of times an event happens in a fixed interval, given that these events happen with a known constant mean rate, and independently of the time since the last event. We describe this distribution using the parameter \(\lambda\), which is the average rate of occurrence.

In the exercise, we're looking at the number of people coming to buy a magazine following a Poisson distribution, which is an example of applying probability theory to real-world processes. This offers insights into not only the average number of people expected, but also the variability or spread of such occurrences.
Random Variables
Random variables are a key concept in probability and statistics. They are variables whose values are determined by outcomes of a random phenomenon. In our exercise, \(X\) is a random variable representing the number of individuals purchasing the magazine.

There are different types of random variables, and here, \(X\) follows a Poisson distribution, which is suited for counting occurrences over intervals. These intervals are often time, distance, area, or volume.

A random variable, once its type is specified (e.g., Poisson, binomial, normal), allows us to perform calculations and make inferences about the data it represents. The special property of a Poisson random variable is that the mean (expected value) and the variance are both equal to the distribution's parameter \(\lambda\). Understanding \(X\)'s behavior helps us anticipate outcomes and plan accordingly.

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