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Let \(X_{1}, X_{2}\), and \(X_{3}\) be the lifetimes of components 1,2 , and 3 in a three-component system. a. How would you define the conditional pdf of \(X_{3}\) given that \(X_{1}=x_{1}\) and \(X_{2}=x_{2}\) ? b. How would you define the conditional joint pdf of \(X_{2}\) and \(X_{3}\) given that \(X_{1}=x_{1}\) ?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Use joint pdfs to express conditional pdfs of \(X_3|X_1,X_2\) and \(X_2,X_3|X_1\).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Conditional PDF

We need to find the conditional probability density function (pdf) of a random variable given certain conditions. Specifically, we want the pdf of one component's lifetime given the lifetimes of other components.
02

Conditional PDF of \(X_3\)

To find the conditional pdf of \(X_3\) given \(X_1 = x_1\) and \(X_2 = x_2\), use the formula: \[ f_{X_3 | X_1, X_2}(x_3 | x_1, x_2) = \frac{f_{X_1, X_2, X_3}(x_1, x_2, x_3)}{f_{X_1, X_2}(x_1, x_2)}\]where \(f_{X_1, X_2, X_3}(x_1, x_2, x_3)\) is the joint pdf of \(X_1, X_2, \) and \(X_3\), and \(f_{X_1, X_2}(x_1, x_2)\) is the joint pdf of \(X_1\) and \(X_2\).
03

Conditional Joint PDF of \(X_2\) and \(X_3\)

To find the conditional joint pdf of \(X_2\) and \(X_3\) given \(X_1 = x_1\), use:\[f_{X_2, X_3 | X_1}(x_2, x_3 | x_1) = \frac{f_{X_1, X_2, X_3}(x_1, x_2, x_3)}{f_{X_1}(x_1)}\]where \(f_{X_1, X_2, X_3}(x_1, x_2, x_3)\) is again the joint pdf, and \(f_{X_1}(x_1)\) is the marginal pdf of \(X_1\).
04

Assumptions and Further Considerations

To compute specific values or forms of these conditional pdfs, information about dependencies between \(X_1\), \(X_2\), and \(X_3\) would be needed. Often, independence or some distribution family (e.g., exponential lifetimes for electronic components) might be assumed.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

joint pdf
In probability theory, when dealing with multiple random variables, it is important to understand their combined behavior. This is where the joint probability density function (pdf) comes into play. The joint pdf gives the probability that each of the random variables falls within a particular range or takes on a specific value at the same time. When analyzing the joint pdf of variables such as \(X_1, X_2,\) and \(X_3\), it provides insights into the likelihood of their lifetimes interacting at given values.
The joint pdf is often denoted as \(f_{X_1, X_2, X_3}(x_1, x_2, x_3)\), which tells us the probability that \(X_1, X_2, \) and \(X_3\) are exactly \(x_1, x_2, \) and \(x_3\). Understanding this concept is vital, especially when determining conditional probabilities later.
To calculate or interpret the joint pdf, it is necessary to have a clear picture of whether these variables are dependent or have their distributions defined separately. This function is crucial in multivariate statistical analysis and can provide a lot of information about the system's overall behavior.
independence
Independence between random variables is a fundamental concept that greatly simplifies the calculation of their combined probabilities. Two random variables \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent if the occurrence of \(X\) provides no information about the occurrence of \(Y\), and vice-versa. In terms of probabilities, their independence can be expressed by the equation: \(f_{X,Y}(x,y) = f_X(x) \cdot f_Y(y)\), meaning their joint pdf is simply the product of their individual (marginal) pdfs.
In the context of conditional probabilities, assuming independence can sometimes be useful to simplify the calculations of conditional pdfs. However, it is crucial to establish or prove independence through theoretical justifications or empirical data.
The notion of independence helps to avoid complex dependencies between random variables when modeling statistical problems. Moreover, it can impact the parameters required to completely define the joint distribution of the variables.
random variables
A random variable is a variable whose value is subject to variations due to chance. In essence, it is a quantitative representation of an outcome of a random phenomenon. When we refer to \(X_1, X_2,\) and \(X_3\), each is a random variable representing the lifetimes of components in the given system. Each of these variables can take on values within a certain range with specific probabilities.
Random variables can be classified as discrete or continuous. Discrete random variables take on either a finite number of distinct values or an infinite sequence of values. In contrast, a continuous random variable can take on any numerical value within a range or interval.
Understanding random variables is crucial for defining and computing probability distributions, conditional probabilities, and other statistical attributes. By modeling real-world systems with random variables, we can use statistical tools to deduce important information and make predictive analyses.
marginal pdf
The marginal probability density function (pdf) plays a key role when dealing with multiple random variables. To understand how one variable behaves irrespective of others, the marginal pdf provides the needed insights. It is derived by integrating the joint pdf of all the variables over the space of the other random variables. For instance, the marginal pdf of a random variable \(X_1\) from a joint pdf \(f_{X_1, X_2, X_3}(x_1, x_2, x_3)\) is computed as follows:
\ \(f_{X_1}(x_1) = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} f_{X_1, X_2, X_3}(x_1, x_2, x_3) \, dx_2 \, dx_3\) This method isolates one variable, neglecting the others, hence the term 'marginal'.
The marginal pdf allows us to focus on the distribution of each variable separately and is critical for understanding individual behaviors in multi-variable situations. It is particularly useful when calculating conditional probabilities or studying the distributions of single variables within a multivariate framework.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Let \(X\) be the number of packages being mailed by a randomly selected customer at a certain shipping facility. Suppose the distribution of \(X\) is as follows: \begin{tabular}{l|rrrr} \(x\) & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 \\ \hline\(p(x)\) & \(.4\) & \(.3\) & \(.2\) & \(.1\) \end{tabular} a. Consider a random sample of size \(n=2\) (two customers), and let \(\bar{X}\) be the sample mean number of packages shipped. Obtain the probability distribution of \(\bar{X}\). b. Refer to part (a) and calculate \(P(\bar{X} \leq 2.5)\). c. Again consider a random sample of size \(n=2\), but now focus on the statistic \(R=\) the sample range (difference between the largest and smallest values in the sample). Obtain the distribution of \(R\). [Hint: Calculate the value of \(R\) for each outcome and use the probabilities from part (a).] d. If a random sample of size \(n=4\) is selected, what is \(P(\bar{X} \leq 1.5)\) ? [Hint: You should not have to list all possible outcomes, only those for which \(\bar{x} \leq 1.5\).]

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