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Suppose that when a transistor of a certain type is subjected to an accelerated life test, the lifetime \(X\) (in weeks) has a gamma distribution with mean 24 weeks and standard deviation 12 weeks. a. What is the probability that a transistor will last between 12 and 24 weeks? b. What is the probability that a transistor will last at most 24 weeks? Is the median of the lifetime distribution less than 24 ? Why or why not? c. What is the 99th percentile of the lifetime distribution? d. Suppose the test will actually be terminated after \(t\) weeks. What value of \(t\) is such that only \(.5 \%\) of all transistors would still be operating at termination?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The transistor's lifetime follows a gamma distribution with mean 24, median less than 24 weeks; compute probabilities using distribution tables or software.

Step by step solution

01

Identifying Parameters

The gamma distribution is defined by its shape parameter \(k\) and scale parameter \(\theta\). We know the mean \(\mu = k \theta = 24\) weeks and standard deviation \(\sigma = \sqrt{k}\theta = 12\) weeks. Using these, we can find \(k\) and \(\theta\).
02

Solving for \(k\) and \(\theta\)

From \(\mu = k \theta = 24\), we have \(\theta = \frac{24}{k}\). Using \(\sigma = \sqrt{k}\theta = 12\), we substitute \(\theta = \frac{24}{k}\) into the equation: \(\sqrt{k}\frac{24}{k} = 12\). Solving this, \(24\sqrt{k} = 12k\), which simplifies to \(\sqrt{k} = \frac{k}{2}\). Squaring both sides gives \(k = 4\). Consequently, \(\theta = \frac{24}{4} = 6\).
03

Step 3a: Probability between 12 and 24 weeks

The probability that \(12 < X < 24\) for a gamma distribution with parameters \(k = 4\) and \(\theta = 6\) is found by computing \(P(12 < X < 24) = P(X < 24) - P(X < 12)\). Use the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the gamma distribution to find these probabilities.
04

Step 3b: Probability at most 24 weeks

The probability that \(X \leq 24\) is simply \(P(X < 24)\) using the CDF of the gamma distribution. With computed parameters, use statistical software or tables to find this probability.
05

Step 3c: Median Evaluation

If \(P(X \leq 24) < 0.5\), the median of the lifetime is less than 24 weeks because more than 50% of transistors would last less than 24 weeks. Evaluate this using the obtained CDF.
06

99th Percentile

The 99th percentile \(X_\text{99}\) is the value where \(P(X \leq X_\text{99}) = 0.99\). Use the inverse CDF (also known as quantile function) of the gamma distribution to find \(X_\text{99}\).
07

Terminating Time for 0.5% Operation

Find the time \(t\) such that \(P(X > t) = 0.005\), which is equivalent to \(P(X \leq t) = 0.995\). Using the inverse CDF, solve for \(t\) such that \(F(t) = 0.995\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Gamma Distribution
The Gamma distribution is a type of continuous probability distribution. It's applicable in situations where we want to model the time until an event occurs. This is especially useful in fields like reliability engineering and survival analysis. The distribution is characterized by two parameters: the shape parameter \( k \) and the scale parameter \( \theta \). The mean of the gamma distribution is given by \( \mu = k \theta \), and the variance is \( \sigma^2 = k \theta^2 \). This distribution is flexible due to its shape and scale parameters, allowing it to model various types of data.
For example, a gamma distribution with a small shape parameter grows quickly, peaks, and then gradually declines, which might be useful for modeling failure times of transistors in high-stress tests.
  • Shape parameter \( k \) determines the skewness of the distribution.
  • Scale parameter \( \theta \) stretches or compresses the distribution along the x-axis.
  • It is often used when dealing with positively skewed data.
Cumulative Distribution Function
The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is a fundamental concept in statistics that describes the probability that a random variable takes a value less than or equal to a certain point. For the gamma distribution, the CDF can be represented through the integral of the probability density function from 0 to \( x \).
The CDF is useful for calculating probabilities, such as finding the probability that a lifetime of a transistor will fall within a specific range. If you know the shape and scale parameters \( k \) and \( \theta \) of the gamma distribution, you can compute the CDF to answer questions regarding lifetime probabilities.
Using statistical software makes this task much easier, as manual calculations can be complex for a gamma distribution.
  • The CDF is handy for confirming how likely it is that a particular event, like a failure, occurs within a given timeframe.
  • It provides the probability of a random variable being less than or equal to a specific value, \( x \).
Percentiles
Percentiles are key in statistics for understanding the distribution of data. They indicate the value below which a given percentage of observations fall. For instance, the 99th percentile is the value below which 99% of the data can be found.
In the context of the gamma distribution, the 99th percentile of a transistor's lifetime can be determined using the inverse CDF function. This provides critical insights into how long the majority of transistors are expected to last before failing. This is particularly important in quality control and reliability testing.
  • Percentiles help in determining thresholds for significant levels of probability.
  • They are useful in academic testing, growth charts, and financial risk assessments.
Shape and Scale Parameters
The gamma distribution is defined by its shape and scale parameters, \( k \) and \( \theta \), which are crucial in determining the characteristics of the distribution. The shape parameter \( k \) influences the asymmetry and the peakedness of the distribution, while the scale parameter \( \theta \) affects the spread of the data.
In the given problem, these parameters were used to find the mean and variance of the distribution, important for calculating probabilities like the transistor's lifetime. Using the relationships \( \mu = k \theta \) and \( \sigma = \sqrt{k}\theta \), one can solve for these parameters to define the specific gamma distribution suited for the problem.
  • Both parameters allow us to tailor the distribution for specific data sets.
  • Having both under your control provides flexibility in modeling different types of phenomena.
Statistical Software Utilization
Using statistical software is crucial for handling complex calculations associated with the gamma distribution. Tools like R, Python (Scipy), or specialized software packages make it easier to compute CDFs, quantiles, and handle large datasets effectively.
These tools can automate the process of finding probabilities, percentiles, and critical values. This is especially useful given the intricate calculations required for gamma distributions, where manual calculations could be error-prone and cumbersome.
Statistical software help not only in executing these calculations but also in visualizing and interpreting the results better.
  • Software packages offer functions for CDF, probability calculations, and drawing random samples from the gamma distribution.
  • They can save considerable time and effort compared to manual methods.
  • Data visualization features provide further insights into distribution characteristics.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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