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The reaction time (in seconds) to a certain stimulus is a continuous random variable with pdf $$ f(x)=\left\\{\begin{array}{cc} \frac{3}{2} \cdot \frac{1}{x^{2}} & 1 \leq x \leq 3 \\ 0 & \text { otherwise } \end{array}\right. $$ a. Obtain the cdf. b. What is the probability that reaction time is at most \(2.5 \mathrm{sec}\) ? Between \(1.5\) and \(2.5 \mathrm{sec}\) ? c. Compute the expected reaction time. d. Compute the standard deviation of reaction time. e. If an individual takes more than \(1.5 \mathrm{sec}\) to react, a light comes on and stays on either until one further second has elapsed or until the person reacts (whichever happens first). Determine the expected amount of time that the light remains lit.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. CDF is \( F(x) = \frac{3}{2} - \frac{3}{2x} \). b. (i) 0.9, (ii) 0.4. c. \( \frac{3}{2} \ln(3) \). d. \( \sqrt{3 - \left(\frac{3}{2} \ln(3)\right)^2} \). e. Expected light time 0.25s.

Step by step solution

01

Find the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)

To obtain the CDF, we need to integrate the probability density function (pdf) over the interval from the lower bound to a variable upper bound \( x \). Thus, the cumulative distribution function is given by \( F(x) = \int_{1}^{x} f(t) \, dt \) where \(f(x) = \frac{3}{2x^2}\) for \(1 \leq x \leq 3\). Calculating this integral, we have:\[ F(x) = \int_{1}^{x} \frac{3}{2t^2} \, dt = -\frac{3}{2} \cdot \left(\frac{1}{t}\right)\bigg|_{1}^{x} = -\frac{3}{2} \cdot \left(\frac{1}{x} - 1\right) \]Therefore, \( F(x) = \frac{3}{2} - \frac{3}{2x} \) for \( 1 \leq x \leq 3 \). For \( x < 1 \), \( F(x) = 0 \), and for \( x > 3 \), \( F(x) = 1 \).
02

Calculate Probability for Reaction Time at most 2.5 seconds

To find \( P(X \leq 2.5) \), use the CDF obtained in Step 1:\[ P(X \leq 2.5) = F(2.5) = \frac{3}{2} - \frac{3}{2 \times 2.5} = \frac{3}{2} - \frac{3}{5} = \frac{15}{10} - \frac{6}{10} = \frac{9}{10} \]
03

Calculate Probability Between 1.5 and 2.5 seconds

The probability that the reaction time is between 1.5 and 2.5 seconds is given by:\[ P(1.5 < X \leq 2.5) = F(2.5) - F(1.5) \]Substituting the values from the CDF:\[ F(1.5) = \frac{3}{2} - \frac{3}{3} = \frac{3}{2} - 1 = \frac{1}{2} \]Therefore:\[ P(1.5 < X \leq 2.5) = \frac{9}{10} - \frac{1}{2} = \frac{9}{10} - \frac{5}{10} = \frac{4}{10} = \frac{2}{5} \]
04

Compute the Expected Reaction Time

The expected value \( E(X) \) is computed by integrating the function \( x \cdot f(x) \) over the interval \([1, 3]\):\[ E(X) = \int_{1}^{3} x \cdot \frac{3}{2x^2} \, dx = \frac{3}{2} \int_{1}^{3} \frac{1}{x} \, dx \]The integral of \( \frac{1}{x} \) is ln(x), so:\[ E(X) = \frac{3}{2} \cdot (\ln(3) - \ln(1)) = \frac{3}{2} \cdot \ln(3) \]
05

Compute the Standard Deviation of Reaction Time

First, compute \( E(X^2) \):\[ E(X^2) = \int_{1}^{3} x^2 \cdot \frac{3}{2x^2} \, dx = \frac{3}{2} \int_{1}^{3} 1 \, dx = \frac{3}{2} \cdot (3 - 1) = 3 \]Using \( \text{Var}(X) = E(X^2) - [E(X)]^2 \):\[ \text{Var}(X) = 3 - \left(\frac{3}{2} \cdot \ln(3)\right)^2 \]The standard deviation \( \sigma \) is:\[ \sigma = \sqrt{\text{Var}(X)} = \sqrt{3 - \left(\frac{3}{2} \cdot \ln(3)\right)^2} \]
06

Compute the Expected Time the Light Remains Lit

The light remains lit for 1 second or until reaction occurs, whichever is first. We seek \( E[Y] \), where \( Y = 1 \) if no reaction by 2.5s and \( Y = T - 1.5 \) if reaction between 1.5s and 2.5s. Expected \( Y \):- Probability no reaction until 2.5s is \( 1 - F(2.5) = 0.1 \), contributing 0.1 towards 1s.- Contribution for reaction: \( \int_{1.5}^{2.5} (x - 1.5) \cdot f(x) \, dx \).This calculation is:\[ \int_{1.5}^{2.5} (x - 1.5) \cdot \frac{3}{2x^2} \, dx \] approximates to 0.15.Thus, \( E(Y) = 0.1 \times 1 + 0.15 \approx 0.25 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
A Cumulative Distribution Function, or CDF, is crucial for understanding the probability of a continuous random variable. It provides the probability that a random variable takes on a value less than or equal to a specific point. You can think of it as a way of accumulating probabilities as you move along the values of the random variable.
To find the CDF from a given Probability Density Function (PDF), you simply integrate the PDF from the lower bound to the point of interest.
In our reaction time example, if the PDF is given by \( f(x) = \frac{3}{2} \cdot \frac{1}{x^{2}} \) for \(1 \leq x \leq 3\), the CDF \( F(x) \) is derived by integrating \( f(x) \) over this interval.
The resulting formula, \( F(x) = \frac{3}{2} - \frac{3}{2x} \), allows us to find specific probabilities, such as \( P(X \leq 2.5) \).
For values outside the interval, such as \( x < 1 \), the CDF is 0, and for \( x > 3 \), the CDF equals 1, indicating the total probability.
Probability Density Function (PDF)
The Probability Density Function, or PDF, is a fundamental concept in statistics that describes the likelihood of a continuous random variable taking on a specific value. It's important to note that the PDF itself doesn't give probabilities directly but rather a density or intensity of probability over an interval.
For example, if you have a reaction time distribution of \( f(x) = \frac{3}{2x^2} \) for the interval \(1 \leq x \leq 3\), then this PDF gives you a curve where the area under the curve over a specific range corresponds to the probability.
This means the integral of the PDF over an interval gives the probability of the variable falling within that range. Outside of its specified range (1 to 3 seconds, in our case), the PDF is zero, indicating no likelihood of occurrence.
  • The PDF helps in forming the cumulative distribution function by integrating the PDF over an interval.
  • In this context, it helps find probabilities and other important measures like the expected value by considering whole ranges.
Expected Value
The expected value is akin to a weighted average, representing the long-run average if you were to repeat the experiment infinite times. For a continuous random variable, the expected value is found by integrating the product of the variable and its PDF across its range.
In simpler terms, it's like finding the center of mass of the probability distribution.
For our reaction time example, the expected reaction time is given by the integral \( E(X) = \int_{1}^{3} x \cdot \frac{3}{2x^2} \, dx \). This evaluates to \( \frac{3}{2} \times \ln(3) \).
A useful property of the expected value is its linearity, which means the expected value of a sum of variables is the sum of their expected values.
Understanding expected value assists in quantifying central tendency for the distribution and supports decision-making under uncertainty.
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation gives us a measure of the spread or dispersion of a set of values. For a continuous random variable, it's derived from the variance, which itself is the expected value of the squared deviation from the mean.
In our context, once we've calculated the expected value, we find the variance and subsequently the standard deviation. For the reaction time:
  • First, calculate \( E(X^2) = \int_{1}^{3} x^2 \cdot \frac{3}{2x^2} \, dx \), which is 3.
  • Using \( \text{Var}(X) = E(X^2) - [E(X)]^2 \), substitute to get \( \text{Var}(X) = 3 - \left(\frac{3}{2} \cdot \ln(3)\right)^2 \).
  • Standard deviation is the square root of the variance: \( \sigma = \sqrt{\text{Var}(X)} \).
This measure gives insights into how much variation or "spread" is present from the expected value. A smaller standard deviation means the values tend to be close to the mean, while a larger one indicates more spread out values.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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