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A certain type of flashlight requires two type-D batteries, and the flashlight will work only if both its batteries have acceptable voltages. Suppose that \(90 \%\) of all batteries from a certain supplier have acceptable voltages. Among ten randomly selected flashlights, what is the probability that at least nine will work? What assumptions did you make in the course of answering the question posed?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that at least 9 flashlights work is 0.3891.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We need to find the probability that at least 9 out of 10 flashlights will work. For a flashlight to work, both batteries must have acceptable voltages.
02

Identify the Probability for Batteries

Each battery has a 90% chance of having an acceptable voltage, i.e., probability, \(p = 0.9\). Since a flashlight has two batteries, the probability that both batteries are acceptable is \(0.9 \times 0.9 = 0.81\).
03

Define the Binomial Distribution

This problem can be modeled as a binomial distribution where the number of trials \(n = 10\) (flashlights) and the probability of success (a flashlight working) \(p = 0.81\).
04

Calculate the Probability of 9 Working Flashlights

To find the probability that exactly 9 flashlights work, we use the binomial probability formula: \(P(X = 9) = \binom{10}{9} (0.81)^9 (0.19)^1\).
05

Calculate the Probability of 10 Working Flashlights

Similarly, calculate the probability for 10 working flashlights: \(P(X = 10) = \binom{10}{10} (0.81)^{10}\).
06

Using the Cumulative Probability

Since we need at least 9 working flashlights, we sum the probabilities from steps 4 and 5: \(P(X \geq 9) = P(X = 9) + P(X = 10)\).
07

Solve the Calculations

Compute the probabilities: \(P(X = 9) = 10 \times 0.81^9 \times 0.19 = 0.2711\) and \(P(X = 10) = 0.81^{10} = 0.1180\). Add them together: \(P(X \geq 9) = 0.2711 + 0.1180 = 0.3891\).
08

State Assumptions

We assumed that each battery operates independently, and the probability of a battery being acceptable is constant. We also assumed that the selection of flashlights is random.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability
Probability is a fundamental concept in statistics that measures how likely an event is to occur. It is expressed as a number between 0 and 1. A probability of 0 means the event will not happen, while a probability of 1 means the event will definitely occur.

In this exercise, we seek to determine the probability that at least 9 out of 10 flashlights work. We start by identifying relevant probabilities, such as the likelihood that a single battery functions properly. In the context of this problem, the probability that a battery has an acceptable voltage is given as 0.9.

To find the likelihood of both batteries in a flashlight having acceptable voltages, we multiply their individual probabilities since both are needed for the flashlight to function: 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.81. This results in an overall 81% probability that a flashlight containing two such batteries will work.
Independent Events
Independent events are those where the occurrence of one event does not affect the likelihood of another occurring. In probability scenarios, assuming that events are independent can simplify calculations because it allows us to multiply their individual probabilities to find a combined probability.

In the flashlight exercise, we assume that the functioning of each battery is independent. This means the probability of one battery being acceptable does not influence the probability of another. Similarly, each flashlight is considered independent of the others, therefore each selection of a flashlight from the batch of ten operates independently. This independence is crucial because it helps us apply binomial distribution and simplifies the computation process.
Binomial Probability Formula
The binomial probability formula is a mathematical method used to calculate the probability of a given number of successes in a fixed number of independent trials, where each trial has two possible outcomes—success or failure.

In our problem, the success is a flashlight working, defined by both batteries functioning. We use this formula to calculate the probability of 9 flashlights working, as well as the probability of all 10 flashlights working. The formula is given by:

\[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \]

where \( \binom{n}{k} \) is the binomial coefficient, \( n \) is the total number of trials (10 flashlights), \( k \) is the number of successful trials (9 or 10 working flashlights), and \( p \) is the probability of success for a single trial (0.81 for a flashlight working). This formula allows us to calculate the needed probabilities accurately for any specified number of successful outcomes.
Random Selection
Random selection is a process of choosing items from a larger set without any specific pattern, where each item has an equal chance of being selected. This is important in ensuring that results from samples are unbiased and representative of the whole population.

In this scenario, we assume that the flashlights are selected randomly, meaning that each flashlight from the group of ten has the same chance of being chosen. This principle of random selection is crucial in unbiased statistical analysis. It ensures that our probability calculations and assumptions hold true, as no external factors are influencing the choice of flashlight in our probability model.

This randomness is part of the assumptions that underpin the solution, ensuring that the calculations using binomial distribution provide a reliable estimate of the probability sought.

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