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The accompanying observations on residual flame time (sec) for strips of treated children's nightwear were given in the article "An Introduction to Some Precision and Accuracy of Measurement Problems" ( \(J\). of Testing and Eval., 1982: 132-140). Suppose a true average flame time of at most \(9.75\) had been mandated. Does the data suggest that this condition has not been met? Carry out an appropriate test after first investigating the plausibility of assumptions that underlie your method of inference. $$ \begin{array}{lllllll} 9.85 & 9.93 & 9.75 & 9.77 & 9.67 & 9.87 & 9.67 \\ 9.94 & 9.85 & 9.75 & 9.83 & 9.92 & 9.74 & 9.99 \\ 9.88 & 9.95 & 9.95 & 9.93 & 9.92 & 9.89 & \end{array} $$

Short Answer

Expert verified
The data suggests the true average flame time is greater than 9.75.

Step by step solution

01

State the Hypotheses

We need to test whether the true average flame time \((\mu)\) is greater than 9.75 seconds. We set up the null hypothesis \(H_0\) and the alternative hypothesis \(H_a\) as follows:\[ H_0: \mu = 9.75 \]\[ H_a: \mu > 9.75 \]
02

Verify Assumptions

We assume that the residual flame times are normally distributed. With a sufficiently large sample size and no clear deviations in the sample data (from randomness and normality), this assumption can be reasonably accepted.
03

Calculate Sample Mean and Standard Deviation

The sample size \(n\) is 20. Calculate the sample mean \(\bar{x}\) and sample standard deviation \(s\) as follows:\[ \bar{x} = \frac{1}{20}(9.85 + 9.93 + 9.75 + \ldots + 9.89) \approx 9.844 \]\[ s = \sqrt{\frac{\sum (x_i - \bar{x})^2}{n-1}} \]
04

Conduct the One-Sample t-Test

Use the one-sample t-test to determine if the sample mean is significantly greater than 9.75. The test statistic \(t\) is calculated by:\[ t = \frac{\bar{x} - 9.75}{s/\sqrt{n}} \]Substitute \(\bar{x}, s,\) and \(n\) to find \(t\).
05

Determine the Critical Value and P-Value

Using a significance level of \(\alpha = 0.05\), determine the critical t-value from the t-distribution table with \(n-1 = 19\) degrees of freedom. Compare the calculated t-value to the critical value or find the p-value corresponding to the calculated t-value.
06

Make a Decision

If the calculated t-value is greater than the critical t-value or if the p-value is less than 0.05, reject \(H_0\). This means there is enough evidence to suggest that the true average flame time is greater than 9.75. Otherwise, do not reject \(H_0\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

t-test
A t-test is a statistical method used to determine if there is a significant difference between the means of two groups or if a single group mean differs from a known value. It's particularly useful when dealing with small sample sizes under the assumption of normal distribution. In the context of our exercise, we are using a one-sample t-test.

Here's how it works:
  • First, state the null hypothesis (\(H_0\)): the mean is equal to a specified value.
  • The alternative hypothesis (\(H_a\)): the mean is greater (or less) than the specified value, depending on the direction of testing.
  • Calculate the t-statistic using the formula:\[ t = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu}{s/\sqrt{n}} \]
  • Compare the t-statistic with a critical value from the t-distribution table or use the p-value method.
If the results yield a t-statistic higher than the critical value, or a p-value less than the significance level, reject \(H_0\). In our equation, if the calculated t-value is significant, it suggests that the true mean flame time could be greater than 9.75 seconds.
normal distribution
Normal distribution is a bell-shaped curve illustrating how the values of a dataset are spread. It is symmetric around the mean, meaning most observations cluster around the central peak and probabilities transition equally. In most statistical exercises, including ours, assuming a normal distribution for the data is essential.

Key characteristics of a normal distribution include:
  • Symmetrical shape about the mean, median, and mode, which are all equal.
  • 68% of the data falls within one standard deviation (\(\sigma\)) of the mean.
  • 95% falls within two standard deviations, and 99.7% within three.
For our hypothesis testing, assuming the residual flame times are normally distributed allows the use of a t-test. This is because the t-test requires the population to have a normal distribution, especially when dealing with small sample sizes. This assumption simplifies calculations and provides valid conclusions about the mean flame time relative to the hypothesized limit of 9.75 seconds.
sample mean
The sample mean, denoted as \( \bar{x} \), represents the average value of a dataset. It's a crucial statistic when making inferences about a population. By calculating the sample mean, you estimate the central tendency of your data. In our exercise, finding the sample mean is among the first steps in conducting hypothesis testing.

Steps to calculate the sample mean:
  • Add all individual data points together.
  • Divide by the number of data points (\(n\)).
In our dataset of flame times, each observation is summed up and then divided by the total number of 20 samples, making our calculation as follows:\[ \bar{x} = \frac{1}{20}(9.85 + 9.93 + 9.75 + \ldots + 9.89) \approx 9.844 \] This sample mean provides a basis for determining how closely our sample represents the actual population mean. This comparison becomes crucial during the t-test to see if the sample mean significantly deviates from the hypothesized value of 9.75 seconds.
statistical significance
Statistical significance is about determining whether the results of a study or experiment are due to chance or if they are meaningful. This is assessed by checking if the calculated test statistic exceeds a critical value or if the p-value is below a specified significance level, often set at \(\alpha = 0.05\).

In the realm of hypothesis testing, statistical significance helps in deciding:
  • Whether to reject the null hypothesis (\(H_0\)).
  • That the observed effect (or difference) is real and not just a fluke.
For our flame time example, after performing the t-test, we compare the t-statistic against critical t-values or check its p-value. If the observed p-value is less than 0.05, we conclude that there's less than a 5% probability that the observed mean flame time would occur if the true population mean were 9.75 seconds. Thus, if we find significance, it leads us to reject \(H_0\) and consider the alternative hypothesis that the true mean indeed exceeds 9.75 seconds.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

When \(X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots, X_{n}\) are independent Poisson variables, each with parameter \(\mu\), and \(n\) is large, the sample mean \(\bar{X}\) has approximately a normal distribution with \(\mu=E(\bar{X})\) and \(V(\bar{X})=\mu / n\). This implies that $$ Z=\frac{\bar{X}-\mu}{\sqrt{\mu / n}} $$ has approximately a standard normal distribution. For testing \(H_{0}: \mu=\mu_{0}\), we can replace \(\mu\) by \(\mu_{0}\) in the equation for \(Z\) to obtain a test statistic. This statistic is actually preferred to the large- sample statistic with denominator \(S / \sqrt{n}\) (when the \(X_{i}\) 's are Poisson) because it is tailored explicitly to the Poisson assumption. If the number of requests for consulting received by a certain statistician during a 5-day work week has a Poisson distribution and the total number of consulting requests during a 36-week period is 160 , does this suggest that the true average number of weekly requests exceeds 4.0? Test using \(\alpha=.02\).

A certain pen has been designed so that true average writing lifetime under controlled conditions (involving the use of a writing machine) is at least 10 hours. A random sample of 18 pens is selected, the writing lifetime of each is determined, and a normal probability plot of the resulting data supports the use of a one-sample \(t\) test. a. What hypotheses should be tested if the investigators believe a priori that the design specification has been satisfied? b. What conclusion is appropriate if the hypotheses of part (a) are tested, \(t=-2.3\), and \(\alpha=.05 ?\) c. What conclusion is appropriate if the hypotheses of part (a) are tested, \(t=-1.8\), and \(\alpha=.01\) ? d. What should be concluded if the hypotheses of part (a) are tested and \(t=-3.6\) ?

It is known that roughly \(2 / 3\) of all human beings have a dominant right foot or eye. Is there also right-sided dominance in kissing behavior? The article "Human Behavior: Adult Persistence of Head-Turning Asymmetry" (Nature, 2003: 771) reported that in a random sample of 124 kissing couples, both people in 80 of the couples tended to lean more to the right than to the left. a. If \(2 / 3\) of all kissing couples exhibit this right-leaning behavior, what is the probability that the number in a sample of 124 who do so differs from the expected value by at least as much as what was actually observed? b. Does the result of the experiment suggest that the \(2 / 3\) figure is implausible for kissing behavior? State and test the appropriate hypotheses.

Chapter 7 presented a CI for the variance \(\sigma^{2}\) of a normal population distribution. The key result there was that the rv \(\chi^{2}=(n-1) S^{2} / \sigma^{2}\) has a chi-squared distribution with \(n-1\) df. Consider the null hypothesis \(H_{0}: \sigma^{2}=\sigma_{0}^{2}\) (equivalently, \(\left.\sigma=\sigma_{0}\right)\). Then when \(H_{0}\) is true, the test statistic \(\chi^{2}=(n-1) S^{2} / \sigma_{0}^{2}\) has a chi-squared distribution with \(n-1\) df. If the relevant alternative is \(H_{\mathrm{a}}: \sigma^{2}>\sigma_{0}^{2}\), rejecting \(H_{0}\) if \((n-1) s^{2} / \sigma_{0}^{2} \geq \chi_{\alpha, n-1}^{2}\) gives a test with significance level \(\alpha\). To ensure reasonably uniform characteristics for a particular application, it is desired that the true standard deviation of the softening point of a certain type of petroleum pitch be at most \(.50^{\circ} \mathrm{C}\). The softening points of ten different specimens were determined, yielding a sample standard deviation of \(.58^{\circ} \mathrm{C}\). Does this strongly contradict the uniformity specification? Test the appropriate hypotheses using \(\alpha=.01\).

Pairs of \(P\)-values and significance levels, \(\alpha\), are given. For each pair, state whether the observed \(P\)-value would lead to rejection of \(H_{0}\) at the given significance level. a. \(P\)-value \(=.084, \alpha=.05\) b. \(P\)-value \(=.003, \alpha=.001\) c. \(P\)-value \(=.498, \alpha=.05\) d. \(P\)-value \(=.084, \alpha=.10\) e. \(P\)-value \(=.039, \alpha=.01\) f. \(P\)-value \(=.218, \alpha=.10\)

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