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The article "On Assessing the Accuracy of Offshore Wind Turbine Reliability- Based Design Loads from the Environmental Contour Method" (Intl. J. of Offshore and Polar Engr:, 2005: 132-140) proposes the Weibull distribution with \(\alpha=1.817\) and \(\beta=.863\) as a model for 1 -hour significant wave height \((\mathrm{m})\) at a certain site. a. What is the probability that wave height is at most \(.5 \mathrm{~m}\) ? b. What is the probability that wave height exceeds its mean value by more than one standard deviation? c. What is the median of the wave-height distribution? d. For \(0

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) Use the CDF method for 0.5 m.\nb) Use the mean and standard deviation to find the probability.\nc) Median is \(\alpha (\ln(2))^{1/\beta}\).\nd) \( x_p = \alpha (-\ln(1 - p))^{1/\beta} \).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Weibull Distribution

The Weibull distribution is a continuous probability distribution used to model reliability and life data. It has two parameters: the shape parameter \(\beta\) and the scale parameter \(\alpha\). The cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the Weibull distribution is given by (where \(x > 0\)):\[ F(x) = 1 - e^{-(x/\alpha)^\beta} \] For this problem, \(\alpha = 1.817\) and \(\beta = 0.863\).
02

Calculating Probability for Part (a)

To find the probability that the wave height is at most 0.5 m, we evaluate the CDF at \(x = 0.5\):\[F(0.5) = 1 - e^{-\left(\frac{0.5}{1.817}\right)^{0.863}}\]Compute this value to find the probability.
03

Calculate the Mean of the Weibull Distribution

The mean \(E(X)\) of the Weibull distribution can be calculated using:\[ E(X) = \alpha \cdot \Gamma\left(1 + \frac{1}{\beta}\right) \]where \(\Gamma\) is the gamma function. Plug in the values of \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\) to compute the mean.
04

Calculate the Standard Deviation of the Weibull Distribution

The variance \(Var(X)\) is calculated using:\[ Var(X) = \alpha^2 \left( \Gamma\left(1 + \frac{2}{\beta}\right) - \left(\Gamma\left(1 + \frac{1}{\beta}\right)\right)^2 \right) \]The standard deviation is the square root of the variance.
05

Probability that Height Exceeds Mean + Standard Deviation for Part (b)

Once you have the mean and standard deviation, compute the probability that the height exceeds this value by using the value \(x = E(X) + \text{Standard Deviation}\) in the complementary CDF:\[ P(X > x) = 1 - F(x) \]
06

Calculating the Median for Part (c)

The median of a Weibull distribution is found by solving \(F(m) = 0.5\), which leads to:\[ m = \alpha (\ln(2))^{1/\beta} \]Plug in the given values to find the median.
07

Expression for the Percentile for Part (d)

The \(100p\)th percentile \(x_p\) of a Weibull distribution is given by:\[ x_p = \alpha (-\ln(1 - p))^{1/\beta} \]This is a general formula for the \(p\)th percentile, where \(0 < p < 1\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Cumulative Distribution Function
The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is a crucial aspect when dealing with statistical distributions like the Weibull distribution. The CDF gives us the probability that a random variable is less than or equal to a certain value. For the Weibull distribution, this function is specifically defined as:
  • \( F(x) = 1 - e^{-(x/\alpha)^\beta} \) for \( x > 0 \)
To determine the probability of the wave height being at most a certain value, such as 0.5m in this case, you would evaluate the CDF at that specific point, 0.5m.
This translates to substituting 0.5 into the equation, allowing us to calculate the probability directly. The CDF is a powerful tool because once calculated, it gives a complete picture of the distribution up to any given point.
Probability Calculation
In probability theory, computing probabilities for specific events is essential. In the context of the Weibull distribution, such calculations often involve using the CDF. For example, to find the probability of wave heights exceeding the mean by more than one standard deviation, we first calculate the mean and standard deviation using these formulas:
  • Mean: \( E(X) = \alpha \cdot \Gamma(1 + \frac{1}{\beta}) \)
  • Standard Deviation: \( \sqrt{\alpha^2 ( \Gamma(1 + \frac{2}{\beta}) - (\Gamma(1 + \frac{1}{\beta}))^2 )} \)
Once we have the mean and standard deviation, we then determine the point \( x \) that exceeds this threshold. To compute this probability, we use the complementary CDF:
  • \( P(X > x) = 1 - F(x) \)
This method gives us the chance to understand how likely it is for a wave height to surpass a certain threshold.
Percentiles
Percentiles are useful indicators in statistics, showing the relative standing of a value within a distribution. For the Weibull distribution, percentiles help us understand which value represents a certain percentage of the distribution. The formula to calculate the \( 100p \)th percentile \( x_p \) is:
  • \( x_p = \alpha (-\ln(1 - p))^{1/\beta} \)
This expression is used to find the value below which a given percentage of data falls. It involves substituting the desired percentile (as a decimal, e.g., 0.25 for the 25th percentile) into the formula.
Percentiles are particularly beneficial when assessing data point positions and are directly linked to interpretations such as quartiles or medians within the data set.
Reliability Modeling
Reliability modeling often relies on the Weibull distribution because of its flexibility in handling different data shapes. The Weibull distribution is frequently used in statistical reliability and failure time data analysis, due to its broad applicability in modeling various types of data behavior.
Its parameters, the shape parameter \( \beta \) and scale parameter \( \alpha \), denote the distribution's tendency and spread, respectively. For example, in offshore engineering, reliability models might assess the likelihood of critical wave heights, ensuring that structures can withstand environmental stressors. By evaluating CDF at critical thresholds, engineers can predict failure probabilities, helping mitigate risks in design frameworks.
  • Reliability studies explore the probable lifespan of products or expectations of performance under varied conditions.
  • Using the Weibull distribution allows prediction over time, which is critical in fields like wind energy, where environmental forces play a large role.
This demonstrates how reliability modeling supported by the Weibull distribution is vital in ensuring safe and effective engineering practices.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Let \(t=\) the amount of sales tax a retailer owes the government for a certain period. The article "Statistical Sampling in Tax Audits" (Statistics and the Law, 2008: 320-343) proposes modeling the uncertainty in \(t\) by regarding it as a normally distributed random variable with mean value \(\mu\) and standard deviation \(\sigma\) (in the article, these two parameters are estimated from the results of a tax audit involving \(n\) sampled transactions). If \(a\) represents the amount the retailer is assessed, then an under-assessment results if \(t>a\) and an over-assessment result if \(a>t\). The proposed penalty (i.e., loss) function for over-or under-assessment is \(\mathrm{L}(a, t)=t-a\) if \(t>a\) and \(=k(a-t)\) if \(t \leq a(k>1\) is suggested to incorporate the idea that over-assessment is more serious than under-assessment). a. Show that \(a^{*}=\mu+\sigma \Phi^{-1}(1 /(k+1))\) is the value of \(a\) that minimizes the expected loss, where \(\Phi^{-1}\) is the inverse function of the standard normal cdf. b. If \(k=2\) (suggested in the article), \(\mu=\$ 100,000\), and \(\sigma=\) \(\$ 10,000\), what is the optimal value of \(a\), and what is the resulting probability of over-assessment?

The temperature reading from a thermocouple placed in a constant-temperature medium is normally distributed with mean \(\mu\), the actual temperature of the medium, and standard deviation \(\sigma\). What would the value of \(\sigma\) have to be to ensure that \(95 \%\) of all readings are within \(1^{\circ}\) of \(\mu\) ?

The distribution of resistance for resistors of a certain type is known to be normal, with \(10 \%\) of all resistors having a resistance exceeding \(10.256\) ohms and \(5 \%\) having a resistance smaller than \(9.671\) ohms. What are the mean value and standard deviation of the resistance distribution?

Let \(X\) denote the vibratory stress (psi) on a wind turbine blade at a particular wind speed in a wind tunnel. The article "Blade Fatigue Life Assessment with Application to VAWTS" (J. of Solar Energy Engr., 1982: 107-111) proposes the Rayleigh distribution, with pdf $$ f(x ; \theta)=\left\\{\begin{array}{cc} \frac{x}{\theta^{2}} \cdot e^{-x^{2} \cdot\left(2 \theta^{2}\right)} & x>0 \\ 0 & \text { otherwise } \end{array}\right. $$ as a model for the \(X\) distribution. a. Verify that \(f(x ; \theta)\) is a legitimate pdf. b. Suppose \(\theta=100\) (a value suggested by a graph in the article). What is the probability that \(X\) is at most 200? Less than 200? At least 200? c. What is the probability that \(X\) is between 100 and 200 (again assuming \(\theta=100\) )? d. Give an expression for \(P(X \leq x)\).

Suppose that \(10 \%\) of all steel shafts produced by a certain process are nonconforming but can be reworked (rather than having to be scrapped). Consider a random sample of 200 shafts, and let \(X\) denote the number among these that are nonconforming and can be reworked. What is the (approximate) probability that \(X\) is a. At most 30? b. Less than 30 ? c. Between 15 and 25 (inclusive)?

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