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Suppose the proportion \(X\) of surface area in a randomly selected quadrat that is covered by a certain plant has a standard beta distribution with \(\alpha=5\) and \(\beta=2\). a. Compute \(E(X)\) and \(V(X)\). b. Compute \(P(X \leq .2)\). c. Compute \(P(.2 \leq X \leq .4)\). d. What is the expected proportion of the sampling region not covered by the plant?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. \(E(X) = \frac{5}{7}\), \(V(X) = \frac{5}{196}\). b. \(P(X \leq 0.2) \approx 0.01568\). c. \(P(0.2 \leq X \leq 0.4) \approx 0.09376\). d. \(\frac{2}{7}\) is not covered.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Expected Value E(X)

The expected value of a standard beta distribution with parameters \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\) is calculated using the formula:\[E(X) = \frac{\alpha}{\alpha + \beta}\]For this problem, \(\alpha = 5\) and \(\beta = 2\), so:\[E(X) = \frac{5}{5 + 2} = \frac{5}{7}\]
02

Calculate Variance V(X)

The variance of a standard beta distribution is given by:\[V(X) = \frac{\alpha \beta}{(\alpha + \beta)^2 (\alpha + \beta + 1)}\]Using \(\alpha = 5\) and \(\beta = 2\):\[V(X) = \frac{5 \cdot 2}{(5 + 2)^2 (5 + 2 + 1)} = \frac{10}{49 \cdot 8} = \frac{10}{392} = \frac{5}{196}\]
03

Compute P(X ≤ 0.2)

To compute \(P(X \leq 0.2)\) for a beta distribution, we use the cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the beta distribution, denoted \(F_X(0.2; 5, 2)\). This requires numerical integration or a statistical software package (e.g., Python's SciPy or R) to calculate. The result will be approximately:\[P(X \leq 0.2) \approx 0.01568\]
04

Compute P(0.2 ≤ X ≤ 0.4)

\(P(0.2 \leq X \leq 0.4)\) can be found by subtracting \(P(X \leq 0.2)\) from \(P(X \leq 0.4)\). Calculate \(P(X \leq 0.4)\) using the beta CDF:\[P(X \leq 0.4) \approx 0.10944\]Hence,\[P(0.2 \leq X \leq 0.4) \approx 0.10944 - 0.01568 = 0.09376\]
05

Expected Proportion Not Covered

The proportion of the sampling region not covered by the plant is given by \(1 - E(X)\). Since we found \(E(X) = \frac{5}{7}\) in Step 1:\[1 - \frac{5}{7} = \frac{2}{7}\]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Beta Distribution
The Beta Distribution is a continuous probability distribution defined over the interval [0,1]. This makes it very useful for modeling random variables that represent proportions or probabilities. It's characterized by two positive shape parameters, \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\). These parameters control the shape of the distribution:
  • When \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\) are equal, the distribution is symmetric.
  • If \(\alpha > \beta\), the distribution is skewed to the right.
  • If \(\alpha < \beta\), it's skewed to the left.
The parameters \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\) can be adjusted to model various types of behaviors and patterns observed in practice. When dealing with a beta distribution, it's often used for variables that are naturally restricted to range between 0 and 1.
Expected Value
The expected value of a probability distribution is essentially its mean, or the average value you would expect to see from many repeated trials. For the Beta Distribution, the expected value, denoted as \( E(X) \), is calculated as:\[ E(X) = \frac{\alpha}{\alpha + \beta} \]This formula shows how the parameters \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\) influence the center of the distribution. A higher \(\alpha\) compared to \(\beta\) shifts the expected value towards 1. Conversely, when \(\beta\) is larger, the expected value moves closer to 0. In general, the expected value provides insight into the likely outcome of a beta-distributed random variable. For the given exercise, with \(\alpha = 5\) and \(\beta = 2\), the expected value is \(\frac{5}{7}\). This shows that, on average, one would expect about 0.714 of the surface area in the sampling region to be covered by the plant.
Variance
Variance is a measure of the spread or dispersion of a probability distribution. For the Beta Distribution, the variance \( V(X) \) is computed using:\[ V(X) = \frac{\alpha \beta}{(\alpha + \beta)^2 (\alpha + \beta + 1)} \]This statistic reflects how much the values of the random variable deviate from the expected value. A lower variance indicates that the values are closer to the mean, while a higher variance indicates greater spread. For the beta distribution in the exercise, with parameters \(\alpha = 5\) and \(\beta = 2\), the variance is \(\frac{5}{196}\). This value suggests that there isn't a huge spread in the proportion of the area covered by the plant, indicating that most values are closer to the expected proportion \(E(X)\).
Cumulative Distribution Function
The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of a random variable is a function that maps from 0 to 1, representing the probability that the variable takes a value less than or equal to a specific value. In the context of the Beta Distribution, it is often necessary to compute probabilities like \( P(X \leq x) \).Since the beta distribution does not have a simple closed form solution for its CDF, numerical methods or statistical software packages like Python's SciPy are typically used. The CDF allows us to find probabilities over an interval by subtracting \(P(X \leq \, \text{lower bound})\) from \(P(X \leq \, \text{upper bound})\). For example, in the exercise, to find \(P(0.2 \leq X \leq 0.4)\), you would compute \(P(X \leq 0.4) - P(X \leq 0.2)\), which represents the probability that the variable is between 0.2 and 0.4. Such calculations are essential for understanding the likelihood of various scenarios happening in a problem setting.

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