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Suppose that the number of drivers who travel between a particular origin and destination during a designated time period has a Poisson distribution with parameter \(\mu=20\) (suggested in the article "Dynamic Ride Sharing: Theory and Practice," J. of Transp. Engr., 1997: 308-312). What is the probability that the number of drivers will a. Be at most 10 ? b. Exceed 20? c. Be between 10 and 20 , inclusive? Be strictly between 10 and 20 ? d. Be within 2 standard deviations of the mean value?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. Use CDF for \( P(X \leq 10) \). b. \( P(X > 20) = 1 - P(X \leq 20) \). c. \( P(10 \leq X \leq 20) \). d. \( P(11 \leq X \leq 28) \).

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distribution is used to model the number of events happening in a fixed interval of time or space. It is defined by the parameter \( \mu \), which represents the average number of events in the given interval. Here, \( \mu = 20 \) is the average number of drivers per time period.
02

Calculate Probability for Part a

To find the probability that the number of drivers will be at most 10, we need to find \( P(X \leq 10) \). This can be calculated using the Poisson cumulative distribution function (CDF). Use the formula: \( P(X \leq 10) = \sum_{x=0}^{10} \frac{e^{-20} \cdot 20^x}{x!} \). Compute this using a calculator or statistical software.
03

Calculate Probability for Part b

For the probability that the number of drivers exceeds 20, we need \( P(X > 20) \). This is the complement of \( P(X \leq 20) \): \( P(X > 20) = 1 - P(X \leq 20) \). Obtain \( P(X \leq 20) \) using the Poisson CDF and find the complement.
04

Calculate Probability for Part c

For between 10 and 20 inclusive, find \( P(10 \leq X \leq 20) = P(X \leq 20) - P(X < 10) \). \( P(X < 10) = P(X \leq 9) \). For strictly between 10 and 20, \( P(11 \leq X \leq 19) = P(X \leq 19) - P(X \leq 10) \). Use the Poisson CDF for these calculations.
05

Calculate Probability for Part d

We need to determine the range within 2 standard deviations of \( \mu = 20 \). For a Poisson distribution, the standard deviation is \( \sqrt{\mu} = \sqrt{20} \approx 4.47 \). So, the range is \( 20 \pm 2 \times 4.47 \approx (11.06, 28.94) \). Since we are dealing with whole numbers, calculate \( P(11 \leq X \leq 28) \), which can be approximated as \( P(X \leq 28) - P(X < 11) \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Cumulative Distribution Function
The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the Poisson distribution helps us find the probability that a Poisson random variable falls within a certain range. It adds up probabilities from zero up to a certain point, making it an essential tool for evaluating probabilities within intervals. For example, when we want to find the probability of having at most 10 drivers, we calculate the CDF for 10 drivers. This means we add up the probabilities of 0, 1, 2,..., up to 10 drivers. In formula terms, it looks like this:
\[P(X \leq 10) = \sum_{x=0}^{10} \frac{e^{-20} \cdot 20^x}{x!}\]
By knowing how to calculate the CDF, we can easily evaluate the likelihood of an event, understand the likelihood of its occurrence, and make informed decisions based on this data.
Mean and Standard Deviation
The concepts of mean and standard deviation are crucial in understanding the spread and center of the Poisson distribution. For any Poisson distribution, the mean (also known as the expected value) is denoted by \( \mu \). It represents the average number of events happening in a given interval. In our exercise, the mean number of drivers between the two specific points is 20.
The standard deviation, on the other hand, gives us insight into the data’s variability. For a Poisson distribution, the standard deviation is the square root of the mean: \( \sqrt{\mu} \). So, for \( \mu = 20 \), the standard deviation is approximately 4.47. This value tells us how much the number of drivers fluctuates around the mean, providing a range that helps predict variability with standard measures like being within 2 standard deviations.
Probability Calculations
Probability calculations using the Poisson distribution involve determining the likelihood of a specific number of events occurring within a given interval. When dealing with Poisson probabilities, we rely on the parameter \( \mu \), which provides a fixed average rate of occurrence. This helps us calculate the probability of any given number (or range of numbers) of occurrences, such as more than, less than, or exactly 20 drivers.
For example, if we want to find out the probability of having more than 20 drivers, we calculate it as the complement of having 20 or fewer drivers. Mathematically, this looks like:
\[P(X > 20) = 1 - P(X \leq 20)\]
With such calculations, students learn to apply theoretical models to practical problems, helping answer real-world questions about event rates and helping process data efficiently.
Event Modeling in Time/Space
Event modeling in time and space is a common use of the Poisson distribution. This concept is crucial when anticipating the number of occurrences of an event across specific durations or regions. The Poisson distribution's relevance stems from its ability to model rare events or counts over designated intervals, which can greatly aid planning and prediction.
When modeling events like the number of drivers between two points in a city within a certain time, the Poisson distribution provides realistic expectations for understanding flow dynamics. An essential part of this modeling includes setting parameters like \( \mu \), and utilizing distribution function methods to calculate probabilities for different outcomes. Due to the adaptable nature of the Poisson distribution, it is a crucial tool for engineers and planners in various fields, including traffic systems, telecommunication, and risk management.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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