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An experimenter is studying the effects of temperature, pressure, and type of catalyst on yield from a certain chemical reaction. Three different temperatures, four different pressures, and five different catalysts are under consideration. a. If any particular experimental run involves the use of a single temperature, pressure, and catalyst, how many experimental runs are possible? b. How many experimental runs are there that involve use of the lowest temperature and two lowest pressures? c. Suppose that five different experimental runs are to be made on the first day of experimentation. If the five are randomly selected from among all the possibilities, so that any group of five has the same probability of selection, what is the probability that a different catalyst is used on each run?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. 60 experimental runs; b. 10 runs; c. Low probability of different catalysts on each run.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Total Experimental Runs

To calculate the total number of experimental runs possible, multiply the number of options for temperature, pressure, and catalyst. We have 3 temperatures, 4 pressures, and 5 catalysts. Use the formula:\[ \text{Total Runs} = \text{Number of Temperatures} \times \text{Number of Pressures} \times \text{Number of Catalysts} \]. Thus, we have:\[ \text{Total Runs} = 3 \times 4 \times 5 = 60 \]. So, there are 60 experimental runs possible.
02

Calculate Runs with Specific Conditions

Consider runs with the lowest temperature and two lowest pressures. Since the lowest temperature can be carried out with each of the two lowest pressures, we have:\[ \text{Runs with specific conditions} = 2 \times \text{Number of Catalysts} = 2 \times 5 = 10 \]. Therefore, there are 10 experimental runs involving the lowest temperature and the two lowest pressures.
03

Determine Probability of Using Different Catalysts

First, calculate the total ways to select 5 experimental runs from 60. This uses combinations:\[ \binom{60}{5} \]. Then calculate the ways to select different catalysts for each run: selecting a different catalyst for each of the 5 runs means choosing 5 catalysts in 5! ways for temperatures and pressures. The total choices per combination are:\[ 3 \times 4 \times \binom{5}{5} \times 5! = 3 \times 4 \times 120 = 1440 \]. The probability is then given by dividing the successful outcomes by total outcomes:\[ P = \frac{1440}{\binom{60}{5}} \]. Calculate this for the probability value.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Calculation
When dealing with scenarios that have multiple possible outcomes, like the experimental runs in our exercise, we often need to calculate the probability of a certain event occurring. Probability is the branch of mathematics that helps us measure how likely it is for something to happen. In the context of our experiment, we're interested in figuring out the probability that a different catalyst is used during each of the five experimental runs chosen randomly.

To begin this calculation, we need to understand combinations, which involves selecting items from a set without regard to the order. For instance, from a pool of 60 potential experimental runs, we need to choose 5. This is represented mathematically as \( \binom{60}{5} \), which indicates the combination formula for selecting 5 runs out of 60.

Once we know the total number of possible selections, we focus on the favorable outcomes. Here, a favorable outcome means each run uses a different catalyst. With 5 different catalysts, we can arrange them in 5 factorial (5!) ways, taking into account different temperatures and pressures as well. This results in a product of 1440 favorable outcomes.

Finally, the probability is the ratio of favorable outcomes to the total outcomes, calculated by dividing 1440 by \( \binom{60}{5} \). This formula gives us a precise measure of the probability that each of the five runs will utilize a different catalyst.
Experimental Design
Experimental design in scientific experiments refers to the careful planning of research activity. It allows researchers to test hypotheses with minimal bias and error. In our given exercise, the study explores the effect of three factors: temperature, pressure, and type of catalyst, on the yield of a chemical reaction. Each factor has multiple levels or variations; specifically, there are three temperatures, four pressures, and five catalysts.

The experimental design involves creating combinations of these factors to examine their influence on the outcome effectively. Each unique combination of temperature, pressure, and catalyst constitutes a single experimental run. This setup is critical for comprehensive testing, as it helps to isolate and identify the effects of each variable while examining their potential interactions.

A well-structured experimental design is essential to reach valid conclusions. It ensures that the data collected is reliable and can support or refute the initial hypotheses. It also aids in understanding the intricate relationship between the variables being tested, by precisely measuring how changes in each factor impact the result.
Factorial Calculation
Factorial calculation is a mathematical operation used extensively in combinatorics and probability. It is denoted by the symbol \( n! \) and represents the product of all positive integers up to \( n \). For example, \( 5! \) equals 120, since 5 multiplied by 4 by 3 by 2 by 1 gives us 120.

In the exercise, factorial calculation is crucial for determining the number of ways we can organize different catalysts across five experimental runs. Each unique sequence can significantly illuminate how various catalysts can be optimally assigned when considering all possible permutations. This calculation helps ensure thorough experimentation by covering all potential setups comprehensively without repetition.

Factorials grow quickly with increasing numbers, which is why they are such a powerful tool in permutations and combinations. They allow for substantial variation within a set number of items, like catalysts in this exercise, by considering every possible order. Such calculations ultimately enable researchers to account for all potential outcomes, thereby enhancing the robustness and reliability of experimental repeats and results.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose identical tags are placed on both the left ear and the right ear of a fox. The fox is then let loose for a period of time. Consider the two events \(C_{1}=\\{\) left ear tag is lost \(\\}\) and \(C_{2}=\\{\) right ear tag is lost \(\\}\). Let \(\pi=P\left(C_{1}\right)=P\left(C_{2}\right)\), and assume \(C_{1}\) and \(C_{2}\) are independent events. Derive an expression (involving \(\pi\) ) for the probability that exactly one tag is lost, given that at most one is lost ("Ear Tag Loss in Red Foxes," J. Wildlife Mgmt., 1976: 164-167). [Hint: Draw a tree diagram in which the two initial branches refer to whether the left ear tag was lost.]

Seventy percent of all vehicles examined at a certain emissions inspection station pass the inspection. Assuming that successive vehicles pass or fail independently of one another, calculate the following probabilities: a. \(P\) (all of the next three vehicles inspected pass) b. \(P\) (at least one of the next three inspected fails) c. \(P\) (exactly one of the next three inspected passes) d. \(P\) (at most one of the next three vehicles inspected passes) e. Given that at least one of the next three vehicles passes inspection, what is the probability that all three pass (a conditional probability)?

Computer keyboard failures can be attributed to electrical defects or mechanical defects. A repair facility currently has 25 failed keyboards, 6 of which have electrical defects and 19 of which have mechanical defects. a. How many ways are there to randomly select 5 of these keyboards for a thorough inspection (without regard to order)? b. In how many ways can a sample of 5 keyboards be selected so that exactly two have an electrical defect? c. If a sample of 5 keyboards is randomly selected, what is the probability that at least 4 of these will have a mechanical defect?

The Reviews editor for a certain scientific journal decides whether the review for any particular book should be short (1-2 pages), medium (3-4 pages), or long (5-6 pages). Data on recent reviews indicates that \(60 \%\) of them are short, \(30 \%\) are medium, and the other \(10 \%\) are long. Reviews are submitted in either Word or LaTeX. For short reviews, \(80 \%\) are in Word, whereas \(50 \%\) of medium reviews are in Word and \(30 \%\) of long reviews are in Word. Suppose a recent review is randomly selected. a. What is the probability that the selected review was submitted in Word format? b. If the selected review was submitted in Word format, what are the posterior probabilities of it being short, medium, or long?

A subject is allowed a sequence of glimpses to detect a target. Let \(G_{i}=\\{\) the target is detected on the \(i\) th glimpse \(\\}\), with \(p_{i}=P\left(G_{i}\right)\). Suppose the \(G_{i}^{\prime}\) s are independent events, and write an expression for the probability that the target has been detected by the end of the \(n\)th glimpse. [Note: This model is discussed in "Predicting Aircraft Detectability" Human Factors, 1979: 277-291.]

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