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An academic department with five faculty membersAnderson, Box, Cox, Cramer, and Fisher-must select two of its members to serve on a personnel review committee. Because the work will be time-consuming, no one is anxious to serve, so it is decided that the representative will be selected by putting the names on identical pieces of paper and then randomly selecting two. a. What is the probability that both Anderson and Box will be selected? [Hint: List the equally likely outcomes.] b. What is the probability that at least one of the two members whose name begins with \(C\) is selected? c. If the five faculty members have taught for \(3,6,7,10\), and 14 years, respectively, at the university, what is the probability that the two chosen representatives have a total of at least 15 years' teaching experience there?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) \(\frac{1}{10}\); b) \(\frac{2}{5}\); c) \(\frac{2}{5}\).

Step by step solution

01

Determine Total Possible Outcomes

First, we determine how many ways we can choose 2 members out of 5. This is calculated using combinations: \( \binom{5}{2} = 10 \). So, there are 10 equally likely outcomes for selecting any 2 faculty members.
02

Probability of Anderson and Box Selected

Out of the total 10 outcomes, Anderson and Box is one specific outcome. Therefore, the probability that both Anderson and Box are selected is \( \frac{1}{10} \).
03

List Outcomes for Part (b)

We are searching for the probability that at least one of the members whose name begins with "C" is selected. The members with names beginning with 'C' are Cox and Cramer. We consider the 10 possible outcomes: AB, AC, AD, AE, BC, BD, BE, CD, CE, DE.
04

Probability of at Least One 'C' Selected

Inspect the list of outcomes: AC, AD, AE, BC, BD, BE, CD, CE. The outcomes involving at least one 'C' are AC, BC, CD, and CE. Hence, there are 4 outcomes with at least one 'C'. The probability is \( \frac{4}{10} = \frac{2}{5} \).
05

Calculate Total Years for Each Pair

List the years each faculty member has been teaching: Anderson (3 years), Box (6 years), Cox (7 years), Cramer (10 years), Fisher (14 years). Calculate total years for each pair: AB = 9, AC = 10, AD = 13, AE = 17, BC = 13, BD = 16, BE = 20, CD = 17, CE = 21, DE = 24.
06

Probability of Total Experience at Least 15 Years

Identify the pairs with at least 15 years of experience: BE, CD, CE, DE. Each of these pairs satisfies the condition of at least 15 years. There are 4 such pairs, so the probability is \( \frac{4}{10} = \frac{2}{5} \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Combinatorics
Combinatorics is a branch of mathematics focused on counting combinations and permutations of elements. When dealing with problems like selecting committee members from a group, we use combinatorics to determine the number of possible selections or arrangements.

In the exercise, the task is to choose two faculty members from five. This is a classic example of combinations, which investigates how many ways you can pick a subset from a larger set without regard to order. We use the formula \( \binom{n}{k} \), where \( n \) is the total number of items, and \( k \) is the number of items to choose. Thus, for our case, \( \binom{5}{2} = 10 \).
  • Order doesn't matter in combinations.
  • Each selection is unique regardless of order.
Understanding combinatorics is essential in setting the foundation for solving probability problems.
Probability Calculation
Probability is the measure of the likelihood of an event occurring. It is calculated by dividing the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes. In our exercise, we calculate several probabilities based on different conditions.

First, to find the probability that both Anderson and Box are selected, we recognize that this is one favorable outcome (Anderson and Box chosen together) out of the total 10 outcomes. Therefore, the probability is \( \frac{1}{10} \).

Next, we determine the probability that at least one faculty member starting with "C" is selected. By listing all possible outcomes, we identify those with at least one "C". There are 4 such outcomes, making the probability \( \frac{4}{10} = \frac{2}{5} \).
  • Favorable outcomes are those that satisfy the event conditions.
  • Probability values range from 0 (impossible event) to 1 (certain event).
Calculating probabilities requires clear identification of favorable outcomes in a given scenario.
Educational Problem Solving
Educational problem solving in probability theory involves applying mathematical concepts to real-life contexts, like our exercise on selecting committee members. It encourages students to understand not just how to compute an answer, but why the steps lead to a solution.

The exercise begins with listing all possible outcomes to give clarity and manageability to the problem. By counting these, students learn how to systematically approach problems.

Using hints and guided steps, such as considering names or years of experience, helps break down complex problems into understandable parts. This strategy enables students to focus on smaller, more manageable tasks:
  • Identify constraints and requirements first.
  • Break a complex problem into simpler components.
  • Use visual aids or lists to organize information.
Educational problem solving enhances understanding and builds skills in logical analysis.
Teaching Experience Calculation
Within the exercise, we calculated the probability that selected faculty members have a combined teaching experience of at least 15 years. This combines probability theory with practical context application.

Each faculty member's years are given: Anderson (3 years), Box (6 years), Cox (7 years), Cramer (10 years), and Fisher (14 years). The task is to determine which pairs of faculty, when combined, meet or exceed 15 years of teaching experience.

We calculate this for each pair:
  • AB = 9
  • AC = 10
  • AD = 13
  • AE = 17
  • BC = 13
  • BD = 16
  • BE = 20
  • CD = 17
  • CE = 21
  • DE = 24
Then, identify those meeting the 15-year threshold: BE, BD, CD, CE, DE. There are 4 pairs, making the probability \( \frac{4}{10} = \frac{2}{5} \).

This calculation helps create context-learning by applying probability theory to realistic scenarios, strengthening understanding.

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