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Suppose that men arrive at a ticket counter according to a Poisson process at the rate of 120 per hour, and women arrive according to an independent Poisson process at the rate of 60 per hour. Determine the probability that four or fewer people arrive in a one-minute period.

Short Answer

Expert verified

0.8152

Step by step solution

01

Given information

It is given that X and Y are independent Poisson variables representing the arrival rate of men and women per hour, respectively.

It is also given that

\(\begin{array}{l}X \sim P\left( {120} \right)\\Y \sim P\left( {60} \right)\end{array}\)

02

Defining a new variable

Since,

\(X \sim P\left( {120} \right)\,\,and\,\,Y \sim P\left( {60} \right)\)

Let us define a new variable, W=X+Y.

By the property that the sum of the independent Poisson with parameters\(\lambda \,\,and\,\,\mu .\)is a Poisson with parameter\(\lambda \,\, + \,\,\mu .\)

\(\begin{array}{l}W \sim P\left( {120 + 60} \right)\\W \sim P\left( {180} \right)\end{array}\)

We convert the parameter rate into minutes

\(\begin{array}{l}{\rm{For}}\,\,{\rm{W,}}\\{\rm{ = 180}}\,\,{\rm{per}}\,\,{\rm{hour}}\\{\rm{ = 3}}\,\,{\rm{per}}\,\,{\rm{minute}}\end{array}\)

03

Calculating the required probability

\(\begin{array}{l} = \Pr \left( {W \le 4} \right)\\ = \Pr \left( {W = 0} \right) + \Pr \left( {W = 1} \right) + \Pr \left( {W = 2} \right) + \Pr \left( {W = 3} \right) + \Pr \left( {W = 4} \right)\\ = \frac{{{e^{ - 3}}{3^0}}}{{0!}} + \frac{{{e^{ - 3}}{3^1}}}{{1!}} + \ldots + \frac{{{e^{ - 3}}{3^4}}}{{4!}}\\ = 0.8152.\end{array}\)

Therefore, the final answer is 0.8152

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