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Three players A, B, and C, take turns tossing a fair coin. Suppose that A tosses the coin first, B tosses second, and C tosses third; suppose that this cycle is repeated indefinitely until someone wins by being the first player to obtain ahead. Determine the probability that each of the three players will win.

Short Answer

Expert verified

In the end, the probability is 1

Step by step solution

01

Given Information

A toss the coin first, B toss the coin second, and C tosses third. With the number of outcomes repeated, we have proof of the probability that each of the three players is winning.

02

State the given events and compute the probability

Every subset of a sample space of a random experiment is called an event.

The events are generally denoted by capital letters such as A, B, C, etc.

Consider A player wins the probability that he won on his first toss is\(\frac{1}{2}\).

The second toss of probability won is

\(\begin{aligned}{} &= \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2}\\ &= {\left( {\frac{1}{2}} \right)^4}\end{aligned}\)

The first three\(\frac{{\bf{1}}}{{\bf{2}}}\)鈥檚 are the probability that A got tails, then B got tails, and then C got tails so that A will be tossed repeated.

Using the same procedure, we see that the probability of player A winning on his third flip is \({\left( {\frac{1}{2}} \right)^7}\).

03

Step 3) We have proof by geometric progression.

We see that the player A鈥檚 total probability of wining is

\(\frac{1}{6}\)\(\frac{1}{2},{\left( {\frac{1}{2}} \right)^4},{\left( {\frac{1}{2}} \right)^7},.....{\left( {\frac{1}{2}} \right)^{3n - 2}}\)

The geometric progression with \(a = \frac{1}{2}\) and \(r = \frac{1}{8}\). That means that the sum is \(\begin{aligned}{}S = \frac{a}{{1 - r}} = \frac{{\frac{1}{2}}}{{1 - \frac{1}{8}}}\\ = \frac{4}{7}\end{aligned}\)

To represent the P(A), the probability of player B winning:

\(\begin{aligned}{}p\left( C \right) &= \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{2}{7}\\ &= \frac{1}{7}\end{aligned}\)

\(\begin{aligned}{}S &= \frac{a}{{1 - r}} &= \frac{2}{{1 - \frac{1}{8}}}\\ &= \frac{2}{7}\end{aligned}\)

To represents the P(B), the probability of player A winning.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose that when a machine is adjusted properly, 50 percent of the items produced by it are of high quality and the other 50 percent are of medium quality. Suppose, however, that the machine is improperly adjusted during 10 percent of the time and that, under these conditions, 25 percent of the items produced by it are of high quality and 75 percent are of medium quality.

a. Suppose that five items produced by the machine at a certain time are selected at random and inspected. If four of these items are of high quality and one item is of medium quality, what is the probability that the machine was adjusted properly at that time?

b. Suppose that one additional item, which was produced by the machine at the same time as the other five items, is selected and found to be of medium quality. What is the new posterior probability that the machine was adjusted properly?

Consider a machine that produces items in sequence. Under normal operating conditions, the items are independent with a probability of 0.01 of being defective. However, it is possible for the machine to develop a 鈥渕emory鈥 in the following sense: After each defective item, and independent of anything that happened earlier, the probability that the next item is defective is\(\frac{{\bf{2}}}{{\bf{5}}}\). After each non-defective item, and independent of anything that happened earlier, the probability that the next item is defective is\(\frac{{\bf{1}}}{{{\bf{165}}}}\).

Please assume that the machine is operating normally for the whole time we observe or has a memory for the whole time we observe. LetBbe the event that the machine is operating normally, and assume that\({\bf{Pr}}\left( {\bf{B}} \right){\bf{ = }}\frac{{\bf{2}}}{{\bf{3}}}\). Let\({{\bf{D}}_{\bf{i}}}\)be the event that theith item inspected is defective. Assume that\({{\bf{D}}_{\bf{1}}}\)is independent ofB.

a. Prove that\({\bf{Pr}}\left( {{{\bf{D}}_{\bf{i}}}} \right){\bf{ = 0}}{\bf{.01}}\) for alli. Hint:Use induction.

b. Assume that we observe the first six items and the event that occurs is\({\bf{E = D}}_{\bf{1}}^{\bf{c}} \cap {\bf{D}}_{\bf{2}}^{\bf{c}} \cap {{\bf{D}}_3} \cap {{\bf{D}}_4} \cap {\bf{D}}_{\bf{5}}^{\bf{c}} \cap {\bf{D}}_{\bf{6}}^{\bf{c}}\). The third and fourth items are defective, but the other four are not. Compute\({\bf{Pr}}\left( {{\bf{B}}\left| {\bf{E}} \right.} \right)\).

Suppose that a box contains one fair coin and one coin with a head on each side. Suppose that a coin is drawn at random from this box and that we begin to flip the coin. In Eqs. (2.3.4) and (2.3.5), we computed the conditional probability that the coin was fair, given that the first two flips both produce heads.

a. Suppose that the coin is flipped a third time and another head is obtained. Compute the probability that the coin is fair, given that all three flips produced

heads.

b. Suppose that the coin is flipped a fourth time, and the result is tails. Compute the posterior probability that the coin is fair.

Suppose that a certain boxAcontains five balls and another boxBcontains 10 balls. One of these two boxes isselected at random and one ball from the selected box is transferred to the other box. If this process of selecting abox at random and transferring one ball from that box to the other box is repeated indefinitely, what is the probability that boxAwill become empty before boxBbecomes empty?

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