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Visiting Problem: Eileen and Ben are away at college. They visit home on random weekends. The probability that Eileen will visit on any given weekend is \(20 \% .\) The probability that Ben will visit is \(25 \%\). On a given weekend, find the probability that a. Both of them will visit b. Neither will visit c. Eileen will visit but Ben will not d. Ben will visit but Eileen will not e. Exactly one of them will visit

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. Both will visit: 0.05, b. Neither will visit: 0.60, c. Eileen will visit only: 0.15, d. Ben will visit only: 0.20, e. Exactly one will visit: 0.35.

Step by step solution

01

Determine the Probability of Both Visiting

To find the probability of both Eileen and Ben visiting on the same weekend, multiply the individual probabilities of each visiting. The probability of Eileen visiting is 0.20 and the probability of Ben visiting is 0.25. Therefore, the probability of both visiting is given by the product of these probabilities: 0.20 × 0.25.
02

Determine the Probability of Neither Visiting

To find the probability that neither Eileen nor Ben will visit, first calculate the probabilities of them not visiting. The probability of Eileen not visiting is 1 - 0.20 = 0.80, and for Ben it is 1 - 0.25 = 0.75. Now, multiply these probabilities to find the probability that neither will visit: 0.80 × 0.75.
03

Determine the Probability of Eileen Visiting but Not Ben

To find the probability that Eileen will visit but Ben will not, take the probability of Eileen visiting and multiply it by the probability of Ben not visiting. This is given by: 0.20 × (1 - 0.25) = 0.20 × 0.75.
04

Determine the Probability of Ben Visiting but Not Eileen

To find the probability that Ben will visit but Eileen will not, take the probability of Ben visiting and multiply it by the probability of Eileen not visiting. This is given by: 0.25 × (1 - 0.20) = 0.25 × 0.80.
05

Determine the Probability of Exactly One Visiting

The probability of exactly one of them visiting is the sum of the probabilities of either Eileen visiting alone or Ben visiting alone. This is found by adding the results from Step 3 and Step 4: 0.20 × 0.75 + 0.25 × 0.80.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independent Events Probability
When dealing with probabilities, understanding independent events is crucial. Independent events are those whose outcomes do not affect each other. For example, if you flip a coin and roll a die, the result of the coin flip doesn't influence the die roll. In the given exercise, Eileen and Ben visiting home are independent events because one's decision to visit does not impact the other's.

Mathematically, when two events are independent, the probability that both will occur is the product of their individual probabilities. This is applied in Step 1 of the provided solution where the probabilities of Eileen and Ben visiting are multiplied to find the likelihood of both visiting on the same weekend. The fundamental property used here is: \( P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \cdot P(B) \) where \(P(A)\) and \(P(B)\) are the probabilities of events A and B happening independently. Recognizing independent events is key to solving many probability problems.
Probability Calculations
Probability calculations can involve several mathematical operations such as addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division, often utilized to determine the likelihood of various outcomes. The calculations are based on the fundamental rule that the probabilities of all possible outcomes of an event must add up to 1.

In the exercise, we see these calculations in action. For instance, determining the probability that neither Eileen nor Ben will visit involves subtracting their visiting probabilities from 1, to find the probabilities of them not visiting. Then, these resulting probabilities are multiplied as found in Step 2 of the solution. Addition comes into play when calculating mutually exclusive events - situations where only one event can occur at a time, like in Step 5 for finding the probability of exactly one visiting.

Common Probability Formulas

  • Probability of an event: \( P(E) = \frac{\text{Number of favorable outcomes}}{\text{Total number of possible outcomes}} \)
  • Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events: \( P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) + P(B) \)
  • Complement Rule: \( P(\text{not } A) = 1 - P(A) \)
Grasping these formulas and when to apply them is fundamental to mastering probability calculations.
Complementary Probabilities
Complementary probabilities refer to the relationship between the probability of an event occurring and the probability of it not occurring. These must sum up to 1 since an event either happens or does not. If you know the probability of an event happening, simply subtract it from 1 to find the probability of it not happening, and vice versa.

This concept is used in Steps 2, 3, and 4 of the solution. For example, the probability of Eileen not visiting is the complement of her visiting, calculated as \(1 - 0.20 = 0.80\). Similarly, the probability of Ben not visiting is calculated as \(1 - 0.25 = 0.75\). Knowing how to use complementary probabilities simplifies calculations, especially in complex problems. It is a fundamental concept in probability theory and is particularly useful when the probability of the event not happening is easier to determine than the event occurring.

Remember, complementary probabilities are not only a useful tool in calculations but also a conceptual cornerstone in understanding that probabilities capture all potential outcomes of any random scenario.

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