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We see from the calculator screen at the bottom of the previous page that a logistic growth model for world population, \(f(x),\) in billions, \(x\) years after 1949 is $$ f(x)=\frac{12.57}{1+4.11 e^{-0.026 x}} $$ When did world population reach 7 billion?

Short Answer

Expert verified
To find the year when the world population first reached 7 billion, calculate \(x\) as \(x = \frac{\ln(\frac{12.57}{7} - 1) - \ln(4.11)}{-0.026}\). The output will be number of years after 1949, adding that to 1949 will give the actual year.

Step by step solution

01

Set the logistic growth model equal to, 7

First, set the function \(f(x) = 7\), which gives \(7 = \frac{12.57}{1+4.11 e^{-0.026 x}}\).
02

Isolate the exponential term

By cross-multiplying and rearranging, isolate the term with \( e^{-0.026 x}\) on one side of the equation. This yields \(4.11 e^{-0.026 x} = \frac{12.57}{7} - 1\).
03

Take the natural logarithm of both sides

Taking the natural logarithm of both sides to eliminate the exponential factor yields: \(-0.026 x = \ln(\frac{12.57}{7} - 1) - \ln(4.11)\).
04

Solve for \(x\)

Finally, rearrange the equation to solve for \(x\), which will provide the number of years after 1949 when the world population reached 7 billion. The equation \(x = \frac{\ln(\frac{12.57}{7} - 1) - \ln(4.11)}{-0.026}\) will give the solution.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

World Population Modeling
World population modeling is a mathematical approach used to predict how the global population will change over time. This is crucial for planning in areas like resource allocation, urban development, and environmental conservation. A common method for modeling population growth is through the use of the logistic growth model. Unlike linear or simple exponential models, the logistic growth model accounts for the fact that resources are limited. This means that as population size increases, the growth rate eventually decreases, resulting in an S-shaped curve called a logistic curve.

This model shows an initial period of exponential growth followed by a slowdown as the population approaches its carrying capacity, which is the maximum population size that the environment can sustain. Understanding how to model population growth this way gives us insight into future challenges and opportunities.

In the exercise, the logistic growth model given is specific to the world population and helps us determine past population events, like when the world population reached 7 billion.
Exponential Functions
Exponential functions are a type of mathematical function where a constant base is raised to a variable exponent. They are vital in various scientific and financial domains, especially for modeling processes that grow at a consistent relative rate, such as population growth, radioactive decay, and compound interest.

The general form of an exponential function is given by:
  • \( y = ab^x \)
where \( a \) is the initial amount, \( b \) is the base greater than zero, and \( x \) is the exponent. An important feature of exponential functions is that they grow by multiplying by a constant factor over equal time periods.

In the context of the logistic growth equation for world population, an exponential function is a central component, shown as \( e^{kt} \), where \( e \approx 2.718 \) is the base of natural logarithms, \( k \) is the growth rate, and \( t \) is time. This function contributes to the growth component of the logistic model, demonstrating initial rapid growth which is then tempered as limits are reached.
Natural Logarithms
Natural logarithms are logarithms to the base \( e \), which is approximately 2.718. They are denoted as \( \ln(x) \). The natural logarithm is an essential mathematical tool, particularly useful in calculus and mathematical modeling.

Natural logarithms are the inverse operation to exponentiation, which means that if you know the logarithm of a number, you can find the exponent that produces a number using \( e \) as the base. For example, if \( \ln(a) = b \), then \( e^b = a \).

In solving the exercise problem, natural logarithms are used to "undo" the exponential function after isolating \( e^{-0.026 x} \) in the equation. Taking the natural logarithm of both sides of the exponential equation helps to turn the process into a linear one, making it easier to solve for \( x \). This transformation is a crucial step in solving equations involving exponential functions.
Solving Equations
Solving equations is a fundamental skill in mathematics, applicable in various fields from engineering to finance. It involves finding the values of variables that satisfy a given equation.

In the context of this exercise, solving equations involves several key steps:
  • First, set the desired condition—here, equating the logistic function to 7 billion.
  • Next, isolate the term that involves the exponential factor. This step reshapes the equation to make it easier to handle mathematically.
  • Then, use natural logarithms to eliminate the exponential component of the equation, turning it into a linear equation.
  • Finally, solve the resulting linear equation for the unknown variable \( x \), which in this context represents the number of years after 1949 when the population hits 7 billion.
Each step builds upon the previous one, making the process more manageable. Solving equations methodically helps in breaking down complex problems into simpler, more solvable parts.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

will help you prepare for the material covered in the next section. In each exercise, evaluate the indicated logarithmic expressions a. Evaluate: \(\log _{2} 16\) b. Evaluate: \(\log _{2} 32-\log _{2} 2\) c. What can you conclude about $$ \log _{2} 16, \text { or } \log _{2}\left(\frac{32}{2}\right) ? $$

Determine whether each equation is true or false. Where possible, show work to support your conclusion. If the statement is false, make the necessary change(s) to produce a true statement. $$\frac{\log (x+2)}{\log (x-1)}=\log (x+2)-\log (x-1)$$

Describe the product rule for logarithms and give an example.

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