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Is the gestational age (time between conception and birth) of a low birth- weight baby useful in predicting head circumference at birth? Twenty-five low birth-weight babies were studied at a Harvard teaching hospital; the investigators calculated the regression of head circumference (measured in centimeters) against gestational age (measured in weeks). The estimated regression line is head circumference \(=3.91+0.78 \times\) gestational age (a) What is the predicted head circumference for a baby whose gestational age is 28 weeks? (b) The standard error for the coefficient of gestational age is 0. 35, which is associated with \(d f=23 .\) Does the model provide strong evidence that gestational age is significantly associated with head circumference?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 25.75 cm; (b) Yes, gestational age significantly predicts head circumference.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Regression Equation

The problem provides the estimated regression line for predicting head circumference from gestational age. The regression equation is:\[\text{head circumference} = 3.91 + 0.78 \times \text{gestational age}\]where the intercept is 3.91 and the slope (coefficient of gestational age) is 0.78.
02

Calculate Predicted Head Circumference for 28 Weeks

To find the predicted head circumference for a baby with a gestational age of 28 weeks, substitute 28 for the gestational age in the regression equation:\[\text{head circumference} = 3.91 + 0.78 \times 28\]Solving this gives:\[\text{head circumference} = 3.91 + 21.84 = 25.75\]Thus, the predicted head circumference is 25.75 centimeters.
03

Determine Significance of the Slope (Coefficient)

To assess if gestational age is significantly associated with head circumference, perform a t-test for the slope (0.78) of the regression equation. The standard error is given as 0.35, and degrees of freedom are 23.The t-statistic is calculated as:\[t = \frac{0.78}{0.35} \approx 2.23\]Check this t-statistic against a t-distribution table with 23 degrees of freedom at a typical significance level (e.g., \(\alpha = 0.05\)). A t-value larger than the critical value indicates statistical significance.
04

Conclusion on Statistical Significance

For \(df = 23\), the t-critical value for a two-tailed test with \(\alpha = 0.05\) is approximately 2.074. Since the computed t-value (2.23) is greater than 2.074, there is strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis and conclude that gestational age is significantly associated with head circumference.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Gestational Age
The term "gestational age" refers to the length of time between a baby's conception and birth. It is typically measured in weeks. This measurement is crucial because it helps doctors assess a baby's development during pregnancy. A full-term pregnancy usually lasts about 40 weeks, but babies can be born earlier or later. In the context of low birth-weight infants, understanding gestational age becomes particularly important, as these babies are often born prematurely.
By examining gestational age, researchers can explore its influence on various newborn characteristics, such as head circumference. This connection is valuable because it allows for predictions and better understanding of newborn development.
Importance of Head Circumference
Head circumference is a measurement of the distance around a child's head at its largest point. It is a simple yet vital indicator often used by healthcare providers to track a child's growth and development, especially immediately after birth.
• Head circumference can reveal information about a baby’s brain size and potential developmental issues.
• Regular monitoring helps identify early signs of problems like microcephaly (abnormally small head) or macrocephaly (abnormally large head).
In research, such as the study on low birth-weight babies, head circumference acts as a key dependent variable. Understanding its relation to gestational age can lead to insights into how prenatal development affects growth post-birth.
Explaining the t-test in Regression
A crucial part of regression analysis is the t-test, used to determine if there’s a significant relationship between variables. When looking at the gestational age and head circumference, the t-test specifically checks if the slope (coefficient of gestational age) is statistically significant.
Here’s how it works:
• Calculate the t-statistic: This is obtained by dividing the slope estimate by its standard error. For example, with a slope of 0.78 and a standard error of 0.35, the t-statistic would be approximately 2.23.
• Compare this with a critical value from a t-distribution table, considering the degrees of freedom (in this case, 23) and a chosen significance level (often 0.05).
If the t-statistic exceeds the critical value, it suggests the relationship (slope) is significant, meaning gestational age likely affects head circumference.
Interpreting Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is a term used to describe the likelihood that a result or relationship is caused by something other than random chance. In the study of gestational age and head circumference, determining significance helps us understand if the observed pattern between these variables is meaningful.
To conclude statistical significance in this context:
• Calculate the t-value and compare it against a critical value from statistical tables.
• If the calculated t-value (like 2.23) is greater than the critical value (e.g., 2.074 for 23 degrees of freedom and \(\alpha = 0.05\)), the relationship is considered statistically significant.
This result implies confidence in asserting that gestational age indeed affects head circumference, an insight valuable in clinical settings to predict and manage infant development concerns.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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Determine if the following statements are true or false. If false, explain why. (a) A correlation coefficient of -0.90 indicates a stronger linear relationship than a correlation of 0.5 . (b) Correlation is a measure of the association between any two variables.

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