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Heights of 10 year olds, regardless of gender, closely follow a normal distribution with mean 55 inches and standard deviation 6 inches. (a) The height requirement for Batman the Ride at Six Flags Magic Mountain is 54 inches. What percent of 10 year olds cannot go on this ride? (b) Suppose there are four 10 year olds. What is the chance that at least two of them will be able to ride Batman the Ride? (c) Suppose you work at the park to help them better understand their customers' demographics, and you are counting people as they enter the park. What is the chance that the first 10 year old you see who can ride Batman the Ride is the 3 rd 10 year old who enters the park? (d) What is the chance that the fifth 10 year old you see who can ride Batman the Ride is the 12 th 10 year old who enters the park?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 43.38% cannot ride. (b) 82.83% chance at least two can ride. (c) 10.64% chance for part (c). (d) 11.33% chance for part (d).

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the Z-score

First, we need to calculate the Z-score for the height requirement of 54 inches. The Z-score is given by the formula: \[ Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \]Here, \( X = 54 \), \( \mu = 55 \), and \( \sigma = 6 \), so:\[ Z = \frac{54 - 55}{6} = \frac{-1}{6} = -0.1667 \]
02

Find the probability for Z-score

Using a standard normal distribution table, we find the probability of a Z-score of -0.1667. This value corresponds to approximately 0.4338.
03

Calculate the percentage for part (a)

Since 0.4338 represents the proportion of 10 year olds with heights less than 54 inches, about 43.38% cannot ride.
04

Binomial probability for at least two riders

For part (b), first find the probability that a child can ride, which is 1 - 0.4338 = 0.5662. We want the probability that at least two out of four can ride.
05

Calculate probabilities using Binomial Distribution

Using the binomial formula, we calculate the probabilities for 0, 1:- \( P(X = 0) = \binom{4}{0} (0.5662)^0 (0.4338)^4 = 0.0353 \)- \( P(X = 1) = \binom{4}{1} (0.5662)^1 (0.4338)^3 = 0.1364 \)For at least two: \( P(X \geq 2) = 1 - (P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)) \approx 1 - 0.1717 = 0.8283 \)
06

Geometric probability for part (c)

In part (c), if the first successful rider is the 3rd 10 year old, two fail (can't ride):- \( P( ext{1st rider at 3rd child}) = (0.4338)^2 \times 0.5662 = 0.1064 \)
07

Negative binomial probability for part (d)

For part (d), using the negative binomial distribution, the probability that the 5th successful rider is the 12th child is:- \( P = \binom{11}{4} \times (0.5662)^5 \times (0.4338)^7 \approx 0.1133 \)

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Z-score
The Z-score is an essential statistic to understand when dealing with normal distributions. It tells us how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. In this context, the Z-score helps us determine the probability of a particular height among 10-year-olds relative to the average. To calculate a Z-score, use the formula \( Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \). Here, \( X \) is the value in question, \( \mu \) is the mean, and \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation. For instance, if the mean height is 55 inches and the standard deviation is 6 inches, the Z-score for a height of 54 inches would be \( Z = \frac{54 - 55}{6} = -0.1667 \). This negative Z-score indicates that 54 inches is below the average height. Then, using a standard normal distribution table, we find that roughly 43.38% of 10-year-olds fall below this height, meaning they wouldn't be able to go on the ride.
Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is crucial when dealing with experiments that have two possible outcomes, such as success or failure. In the context of our problem, success is defined as being tall enough to ride the ride, while failure is too short. A big advantage of the binomial distribution is its ability to calculate the probability of having a certain number of successes in a set of trials. In practice, the probability of being able to ride is 0.5662. If we have four children and want the probability that at least two can ride, we must find the total possibility for zero and one child riding and subtract this from one. Use the formula: \( P(X \geq 2) = 1 - (P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)) \). After computing, you find roughly 82.83% of scenarios result in at least two children being able to ride.
Geometric Probability
Geometric probability helps us calculate the chance of the first success occurring on a certain trial. It's particularly useful when you want to know how many trials until your first success happens, which is the essence of Part (c) from the exercise. Here, the probability of failure until the first success is significant. If we need the third child entering to be the first one tall enough to ride, then the first two mustn't be tall enough. The scenario occurs with two initial failures followed by a success: \( P(\text{first success on 3rd trial}) = (0.4338)^2 \times 0.5662 \approx 0.1064 \). This probability indicates the likelihood of witnessing this precise sequence of events.
Negative Binomial Distribution
The negative binomial distribution extends the geometric probability concept to more complex scenarios, like finding the probability of a specific success occurring on a target trial number. In Part (d), we are tasked with identifying the chance that the fifth child tallying up to success is the twelfth to enter the park. Here, the calculation reflects the probability of achieving exactly four successes in 11 trials before the fifth one. The equation for this probability takes the form:\[ P = \binom{11}{4} \times (0.5662)^5 \times (0.4338)^7 \] Compute this to find the probability of approximately 11.33%, which describes the likelihood of the fifth person tall enough being the twelfth customer.

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