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Suppose we have independent observations \(X_{1}\) and \(X_{2}\) from a distribution with mean \(\mu\) and standard deviation \(\sigma .\) What is the variance of the mean of the two values: \(\frac{X_{1}+X_{2}}{2} ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The variance of the mean \( \frac{X_1 + X_2}{2} \) is \( \frac{\sigma^2}{2} \).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We need to find the variance of the mean of two independent observations, \( X_1 \) and \( X_2 \), from a distribution with mean \( \mu \) and standard deviation \( \sigma \). The mean is given by \( \frac{X_1 + X_2}{2} \).
02

Using the Property of Variance

For independent random variables, the variance of a sum is the sum of the variances: \( \text{Var}(X_1 + X_2) = \text{Var}(X_1) + \text{Var}(X_2) \). Since both have the same distribution, \( \text{Var}(X_1) = \text{Var}(X_2) = \sigma^2 \).
03

Calculating the Variance of the Sum

Using the property that was mentioned, calculate \( \text{Var}(X_1 + X_2) = \sigma^2 + \sigma^2 = 2\sigma^2 \).
04

Finding the Variance of the Mean

The variance of a constant times a random variable is the constant squared times the variance of the random variable. We have \( \text{Var}\left(\frac{1}{2}(X_1 + X_2)\right) = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^2 \times \text{Var}(X_1 + X_2) \).
05

Substituting Calculated Values

Substitute \( \text{Var}(X_1 + X_2) = 2\sigma^2 \) into the equation: \( \text{Var}\left(\frac{1}{2}(X_1 + X_2)\right) = \frac{1}{4} \times 2\sigma^2 = \frac{\sigma^2}{2} \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Variance
Variance is a measure of how much values in a data set differ from the mean. It helps us understand the spread or dispersion of our data points. For any random variable, if its variance is zero, this means every value is exactly the same as the mean.

For instance, if we have a set of numbers \([X_1, X_2, ..., X_n]\), the variance tells us how far, on average, each number is from the mean of these numbers. Mathematically, variance is expressed as \(Var(X) = E[(X - \mu)^2]\), where \( E \) denotes the expected value and \( \mu \) is the mean. In simpler terms, it is the average of the squared differences from the mean.
Mean of Independent Observations
The mean of independent observations is essentially the average value of the observations. When we talk about independent observations, it means that the outcome of one does not affect the others. This property is crucial in statistical calculations because it simplifies the process of finding various statistics.

In our exercise, we had two independent observations: \(X_1\) and \(X_2\). The mean of these observations is calculated as \( \frac{X_1 + X_2}{2} \). The key takeaway is that if observations are independent, calculating their mean becomes straightforward.
Variance of the Mean
The variance of the mean involves calculating how much the mean of different samples can vary. This is particularly important when samples are drawn from a larger population, as it helps us understand the reliability of the mean as a representative statistic.

In our example, we calculated the variance of the mean \( \frac{X_1 + X_2}{2} \). Using the formula for variance of a constant times a random variable, i.e., \( \text{Var}(cX) = c^2 \, ext{Var}(X) \) where \( c \) is a constant, we found \( \text{Var}\left(\frac{X_1 + X_2}{2}\right) = \frac{1}{4} \, \text{Var}(X_1 + X_2)\). With \( \text{Var}(X_1 + X_2) = 2\sigma^2 \), the variance of the mean becomes \( \frac{\sigma^2}{2} \). This tells us how much the mean of \( X_1 \) and \( X_2 \) might vary when repeating the observation process.
Random Variables
A random variable is a variable that can take different numerical values based on the outcome of a random event. It's called 'random' because the results can vary each time an experiment is conducted.

Think of rolling a die: the outcome is unknown until the die is actually rolled. Each roll is an example of a random variable because it can result in any of the values 1 through 6, each with a certain probability.

In our problem, \( X_1 \) and \( X_2 \) are random variables from the same distribution. Even though they are random, due to their independence, their combined behavior follows a specific mathematical pattern that allows us to compute quantities such as their mean and variance.
Distribution Properties
Distributions describe the way values of a random variable are spread or organized. The properties of a distribution can tell us a lot about the population being studied, such as the expected value (mean), variability, skewness, and more.

A Gaussian distribution, often known as the normal distribution, is a common example that is characterized by its bell-shaped curve, mean \( \mu \), and standard deviation \( \sigma \). In our exercise, we assumed that \( X_1 \) and \( X_2 \) came from a distribution with specific mean and standard deviation properties.

Understanding these properties helps us apply formulas for variance and means effectively. For instance, knowing that the observations are randomly drawn and independent allows us to calculate both the variance and mean using standard statistical rules. Thus, with each new observation from this distribution, statistical properties remain consistent and calculable.

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