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Suppose your waiting time for a bus in the morning is uniformly distributed on \([0,8]\), whereas waiting time in the evening is uniformly distributed on \([0,10]\) independent of morning waiting time. a. If you take the bus each morning and evening for a week, what is your total expected waiting time? [Hint: Define rv's \(X_{1}, \ldots, X_{10}\) and use a rule of expected value.] b. What is the variance of your total waiting time? c. What are the expected value and variance of the difference between morning and evening waiting times on a given day? d. What are the expected value and variance of the difference between total moming waiting time and total evening waiting time for a particular week?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. 45, b. 68.33, c. -1 and 13.66, d. -5 and 68.3.

Step by step solution

01

Define Random Variables

Define \(X_1, X_2, \ldots, X_5\) as the waiting time in the morning for each day of the week, and \(Y_1, Y_2, \ldots, Y_5\) as the waiting time in the evening for each day of the week. Both \(X_i\) and \(Y_i\) are uniformly distributed, \(X_i \sim U[0, 8]\) and \(Y_i \sim U[0, 10]\).
02

Calculate Expected Waiting Time Per Day

Since each \(X_i\) follows a uniform distribution over \([0, 8]\), its expected value is the midpoint: \(E[X_i] = \frac{a + b}{2} = \frac{0 + 8}{2} = 4\). Similarly, for each \(Y_i\), \(E[Y_i] = \frac{0 + 10}{2} = 5\).
03

Calculate Total Expected Waiting Time for a Week

The total waiting time in a week is \(T = \sum_{i=1}^{5} (X_i + Y_i)\). So, the expected wait time for a week is \(E[T] = \sum_{i=1}^{5} (E[X_i] + E[Y_i]) = 5 \times (4 + 5) = 45\).
04

Calculate Variance of Waiting Time Per Day

For \(X_i\) distributed over \([0, 8]\), the variance is \(Var(X_i) = \frac{(b-a)^2}{12} = \frac{(8-0)^2}{12} = \frac{64}{12} \approx 5.33\). For \(Y_i\), \(Var(Y_i) = \frac{(10-0)^2}{12} = \frac{100}{12} \approx 8.33\).
05

Calculate Variance of Total Waiting Time for a Week

Since each \(X_i\) and \(Y_i\) are independent, \(Var(T) = \sum_{i=1}^{5} [Var(X_i) + Var(Y_i)] = 5 \times (5.33 + 8.33) = 68.33\).
06

Expected Value and Variance of Difference for One Day

The difference for one day is \(Z = X_i - Y_i\). The expected value is \(E[Z] = E[X_i] - E[Y_i] = 4 - 5 = -1\). The variance is \(Var(Z) = Var(X_i) + Var(Y_i) = 5.33 + 8.33 = 13.66\), since they are independent.
07

Expected Value and Variance of Difference for a Week

For a week, \(D = \sum_{i=1}^{5} (X_i) - \sum_{i=1}^{5} (Y_i)\). Thus, \(E[D] = 5 \times (-1) = -5\). Since differences are independent, \(Var(D) = 5 \times (13.66) = 68.3\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Expected Value
The expected value is like the average outcome you anticipate from a random event over time. In the context of uniform distribution, where you have waiting times evenly spread over an interval, the expected value is just the midpoint of that interval.
For example, if your morning bus waiting time is uniformly distributed between 0 and 8 minutes, the expected value, or average waiting time on any given morning, would be 4 minutes. This is calculated by finding the midpoint: \( E[X_i] = \frac{a + b}{2} \), where \(a\) and \(b\) are the bounds of the interval.
Similarly, if the evening waiting time is spread between 0 and 10 minutes, the expected value is 5 minutes. The beauty of expected values lies in their additivity. If you're calculating expected waiting time over multiple days, you simply sum the individual expected values. In this case, for a week, the expected waiting time for each day is added up to get 45 minutes, as calculated by \( E[T] = 5 \times (4 + 5) \).
  • Expected value represents a central tendency or typical outcome.
  • Calculated by averaging over all possible outcomes, normalized.
  • For uniform distributions, use the midpoint formula.
Variance
Variance measures how much the values of a random variable differ from the average value, or expected value. It tells us about the spread of the data.
For uniform distribution, variance provides an insight into how widely the waiting times are spread across the possible interval. The formula for variance in a uniform distribution comes from squaring the interval range, then dividing by 12: \( Var(X_i) = \frac{(b-a)^2}{12} \).
In our bus waiting example, for a morning wait distributed between 0 to 8 minutes, the variance is calculated as approximately 5.33. For evening waits between 0 and 10 minutes, it's about 8.33.
When you're dealing with independent times like this for a week, you add up the daily variances to find the total variance for the week. Thus, the total variance becomes a sum product \( Var(T) = \sum_{i=1}^{5} [Var(X_i) + Var(Y_i)] = 68.33 \).
  • Variance quantifies variability or dispersion.
  • High variance means more spread out; low variance means data are close to the mean.
  • Calculated using the difference from the mean, squaring, and averaging.
Random Variables
Random variables are fundamental in statistics and probability, representing possible outcomes or measurements of an experiment. They're denoted often as \(X\), \(Y\), etc., and can be either discrete or continuous depending on the nature of the outcome.
In the context of uniform distribution for waiting times, each day’s wait is a random variable. Specifically, \(X_i\) for morning and \(Y_i\) for evening, with known bounds (0 to 8 for morning and 0 to 10 for evening). These random variables are defined to consider each day's varying wait times, helping to model and calculate properties like expected value and variance.
Understanding how these independent random variables interact helps us calculate probabilities and distributions over multiple random events, such as total waiting times over a week. In more advanced statistics, these concepts lay the groundwork for predicting outcomes and making scientific or real-world decisions.
  • Random variables model outcomes of experiments.
  • They can be discrete (countable) or continuous (any value within a range).
  • Used extensively for distribution, probability calculations.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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