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The weight distribution of parcels sent in a certain manner is normal with mean value \(12 \mathrm{lb}\) and standard deviation \(3.5 \mathrm{lb}\). The parcel service wishes to establish a weight value \(c\) beyond which there will be a surcharge. What value of \(\mathrm{c}\) is such that \(99 \%\) of all parcels are at least \(1 \mathrm{lb}\) under the surcharge weight?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The weight value \(c\) should be approximately 21.2 lb.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We are given a normal distribution with a mean of 12 lb and a standard deviation of 3.5 lb. We need to determine a weight value, \(c\), such that 99% of all parcels are at least 1 lb below this value to avoid a surcharge.
02

Expressing the Problem Mathematically

We are looking for a weight \(c\) where 99% of parcels weigh less than \(c - 1\). We need to find the 99th percentile point of the normal distribution, given as \(P(X < c - 1) = 0.99\).
03

Using the Z-Score Table

The Z-Score corresponding to the 99th percentile is approximately 2.33. The Z-Score formula is \(Z = \frac{X - ext{mean}}{ ext{standard deviation}}\). Here, we set \(X = c - 1\) and solve for \(c\).
04

Solving for c

Substitute the known values into the Z-Score formula: \(2.33 = \frac{(c - 1) - 12}{3.5}\). Solve this equation for \(c\).
05

Calculating the Value

First, multiply both sides by 3.5: \(3.5 \times 2.33 = (c - 1) - 12\), which gives us \(8.155 = c - 13\). Solve for \(c\): \(c = 8.155 + 13 = 21.155\).
06

Rounding and Interpreting the Result

Since \(c\) represents weight in pounds, usually we round to the nearest relevant significant figure if not specified. Here, \(c\) is approximately 21.2 lb.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Weight Distribution
When talking about weight distribution in a normal distribution, we refer to how data spreads around the mean. Specifically, a normal distribution is symmetric about its mean, creating a bell-shaped curve. For parcels sent in the given example, their weights are distributed with a mean of 12 pounds and a standard deviation of 3.5 pounds. This means most parcels' weights cluster around 12 pounds.
Weight distribution can affect business decisions, such as establishing weight boundaries. If the weight distribution of parcels is well understood, a parcel service can make informed decisions about surcharge thresholds to make sure that most parcels will not incur extra costs.
Z-Score
The Z-Score is a key concept in statistics, especially in the context of normal distributions. It measures the number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean.
In the exercise provided, a Z-Score was used to find the point where 99% of parcels fall below a specific weight. This is done by using a Z-Score table to find that the 99th percentile corresponds to a Z-Score of about 2.33.
This signifies that the weight at this score is 2.33 standard deviations above the mean. The Z-Score formula used is:
  • \[ Z = \frac{X - \text{mean}}{\text{standard deviation}} \]
  • Where you substitute the known mean and standard deviation to find the weight at this Z-Score.
Percentiles
Percentiles are values in a data set that divide the data into 100 equal parts. Each percentile represents a particular threshold value under which a certain percentage of data falls.
In the context of this problem, we are looking for the 99th percentile. This means we want to find a weight at which 99% of all parcels are below that weight. This is important when setting surcharge benchmarks, ensuring that only the heaviest parcels incur surcharges.
Percentiles give businesses a way to interpret and convey the spread of their data in terms that can be easily understood and applied to decision-making.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure of how spread out the numbers are in a data set. In a normal distribution, around 68% of data falls within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% falls within two, and 99.7% falls within three.
The given parcel example has a standard deviation of 3.5 pounds, illustrating that most parcel weights vary by 3.5 pounds from the average (12 pounds).
Understanding standard deviation allows the parcel service to predict and evaluate options like surcharge levels effectively since they can quantify the usual variability in parcel weights.
In practical terms, knowing the standard deviation helps ensure that the majority of parcels incur a fair postage fee, thus aligning operational costs with price structures.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The article "Determination of the MTF of Positive Photoresists Using the Monte Carlo Method" (Photographic Sci. Engrg., 1983: 254-260) proposes the exponential distribution with parameter \(\lambda=.93\) as a model for the distribution of a photon's free path length \((\mu \mathrm{m})\) under certain circumstances. Suppose this is the correct model. a. What is the expected path length, and what is the standard deviation of path length? b. What is the probability that path length exceeds \(3.0 ?\) What is the probability that path length is between \(1.0\) and \(3.0\) ? c. What value is exceeded by only \(10 \%\) of all path lengths?

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The Rockwell hardness of a metal is determined by impressing a hardened point into the surface of the metal and then measuring the depth of penetration of the point. Suppose the Rockwell hardness of an alloy is normally distributed with mean 70 and standard deviation 3. (Rockwell hardness is measured on a continuous scale.) a. If a specimen is acceptable only if its hardness is between 67 and 75 , what is the probability that a randomly chosen specimen has an acceptable hardness? b. If the acceptable range of hardness is \((70-c\), \(70+c\) ), for what value of \(c\) would \(95 \%\) of all specimens have acceptable hardness? c. If the acceptable range is as in part (a) and the hardness of each of ten randomly selected specimens is independently determined, what is the expected number of acceptable specimens among the ten? d. What is the probability that at most 8 of 10 independently selected specimens have a hardness of less than \(73.84\) ? [Hint: \(Y=\) the number among the ten specimens with hardness less than \(73.84\) is a binomial variable; what is \(p\) ?]

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