/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 141 The article "Error Distribution ... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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The article "Error Distribution in Navigation" (J. Institut. Navigation, 1971: 429-442) suggests that the frequency distribution of positive errors (magnitudes of errors) is well approximated by an exponential distribution. Let \(X=\) the lateral position error (nautical miles), which can be either negative or positive. Suppose the pdf of \(X\) is $$ f(x)=(.1) e^{-.2|x|} \quad-\infty

Short Answer

Expert verified
The pdf integrates to 1; \(P(-1 \leq X \leq 2) = 0.255\), \(P(|X| > 2) = 0.670\).

Step by step solution

01

Sketch the Graph of the PDF

The given probability density function (pdf) is \( f(x) = 0.1 e^{-0.2|x|} \). This is an exponential function, symmetrical about the y-axis, due to the absolute value. At \( x = 0, f(0) = 0.1 \); as \( x \) moves away from zero (either positively or negatively), \( f(x) \) decreases exponentially. Draw this exponential decay graph both in the positive and negative directions.
02

Verify the Legitimacy of the PDF

To verify that \( f(x) \) is a legitimate pdf, we need to show that the integral over the entire real line equals 1. We compute: \[ \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} f(x)\,dx = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} 0.1 e^{-0.2 |x|} \, dx \] Split this into two integrals over positive and negative parts:\[ \int_{-fty}^{fty} 0.1 e^{-0.2 |x|} \, dx = 2 \cdot \int_{0}^{fty} 0.1 e^{-0.2 x} \, dx \] Compute the integral:\[ 2 \cdot [0.1 \cdot (-5 e^{-0.2 x})]_0^{fty} = 2 \cdot [0 - (-0.5)] = 1 \] Thus, \( f(x) \) integrates to 1, confirming it is a legitimate pdf.
03

Obtain the CDF of X

The cumulative distribution function (cdf) \( F(x) \) is obtained by integrating the pdf from \(-\infty\) to \(x\):For \( x \geq 0 \):\[ F(x) = \frac{1}{2} + \int_{0}^{x} 0.1 e^{-0.2 t} \, dt = \frac{1}{2} + [-0.5 e^{-0.2 t}]_0^{x} \]\[ = \frac{1}{2} + 0.5 (1 - e^{-0.2 x}) \]For \( x < 0 \):\[ F(x) = \frac{1}{2} - \int_{0}^{-x} 0.1 e^{-0.2 t} \, dt = \frac{1}{2} - [-0.5 e^{-0.2 t}]_0^{-x} \]\[ = \frac{1}{2} (1 - e^{0.2 x}) \]Sketch: For \( x < 0 \), \( F(x) \) decreases toward 0; for \( x > 0 \), \( F(x) \) increases from 0.5 to 1.
04

Calculate Specific Probabilities

Use the cdf to determine the probabilities:\( P(X \leq 0) = F(0) = 0.5 \)\( P(X \leq 2) = F(2) = 0.5 + 0.5 (1 - e^{-0.4}) = 0.5 + 0.5 \cdot 0.33 = 0.665 \)\( P(-1 \leq X \leq 2) = F(2) - F(-1) \)Find \( F(-1) = 0.5 (1 - e^{0.2}) \approx 0.5 \cdot 0.18 = 0.41\)Thus, \[ P(-1 \leq X \leq 2) = 0.665 - 0.41 = 0.255 \]Finally, \( P(|X| > 2) = 1 - P(-2 \leq X \leq 2) = 1 - (F(2) - F(-2)) \), compute similarly.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Density Function (PDF)
The probability density function (PDF) is crucial in understanding how probabilities are distributed across different outcomes for a random variable. In this exercise, the given PDF is \( f(x) = 0.1 e^{-0.2|x|} \). It is specific to an exponential distribution, known for decreasing exponentially as the variable moves away from zero in both directions - positive and negative. - The PDF gives the probability of the variable falling within a particular range of values.- The term \( e^{-0.2|x|} \) represents the exponential decay, where the absolute value \(|x|\) ensures symmetry around the y-axis.A legitimate PDF needs to satisfy two criteria:
  • It must be non-negative for all possible values of the random variable.
  • The integral over the entire range of the random variable must equal 1, ensuring total certainty that the variable takes some value.
The task verifies legitimacy by successfully integrating the function to 1. This confirms that our PDF is a valid representation of a probability distribution over the continuous random variable \(X\).
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is another essential concept that describes the probability that a random variable is less than or equal to a certain value. If you think of the PDF as a point-specific measure, the CDF offers a cumulative perspective.For the exponential distribution, the CDF is calculated by integrating the PDF from \(-\infty\) to a specific value \(x\). For our variable \(X\):- For \(x \geq 0\), the CDF is \( F(x) = 0.5 + 0.5(1 - e^{-0.2x}) \).- For \(x < 0\), it's \( F(x) = 0.5(1 - e^{0.2x}) \).The behavior of the CDF reflects the distribution of probabilities over the range of \(X\). It starts at 0 and smoothly increases to reach 1 as \(x\) goes to infinity. Observing the CDF graph provides insight into the shifting probability as \(X\) increases or decreases.
Probability Calculations
Probability calculations based on the CDF are fundamental for interpreting the likelihood of different outcomes. In this exercise, several probabilities were computed using the CDF.- \(P(X \leq 0) = F(0)\) which is 0.5. This reflects an equal likelihood for positive and negative errors, given the symmetry.- \(P(X \leq 2)\), calculated from the CDF for \(x = 2\), equals about 0.665, showing a significant probability of errors being less than 2 nautical miles.- For \(P(-1 \leq X \leq 2)\), the probability is determined from the difference in the CDF values at 2 and -1, resulting in 0.255.These exercises reinforce the use of the CDF in computing the probability of a variable falling within certain intervals, crucial in navigation error analysis or any application involving probability distributions.
Probability Integration
Probability integration involves calculating the probability over a range by integrating the PDF between specific limits. This is a key operation in understanding the behavior of continuous random variables.In the solution, splitting the integration to calculate the total probability is essential. The symmetry of the function around zero facilitates easier computations, allowing you to focus on one side and then double the result:\[\int_{-\infty}^{\infty} 0.1 e^{-0.2 |x|} \ dx = 2 \times \int_{0}^{\infty} 0.1 e^{-0.2 x} \ dx\]This method confirms that the entire area under the PDF curve equals 1, validating it as a probability distribution. Mastery of probability integration is essential for deeper statistical analysis, ensuring accurate calculations of probabilities over any given range.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A 12 -in. bar clamped at both ends is subjected to an increasing amount of stress until it snaps. Let \(Y=\) the distance from the left end at which the break occurs. Suppose \(Y\) has pdf $$ f(y)=\left\\{\begin{array}{cl} \frac{y}{24}\left(1-\frac{y}{12}\right) & 0 \leq y \leq 12 \\ 0 & \text { otherwise } \end{array}\right. $$ Compute the following: a. The cdf of \(Y\), and graph it. b. \(P(Y \leq 4), P(Y>6)\), and \(P(4 \leq Y \leq 6)\). c. \(E(Y), E\left(Y^{2}\right)\), and \(V(Y)\). d. The probability that the break point occurs more than 2 in. from the expected break point. e. The expected length of the shorter segment when the break occurs.

Let \(X\) denote the lifetime of a component, with \(f(x)\) and \(F(x)\) the pdf and cdf of \(X\). The probability that the component fails in the interval \((x, x+\Delta x)\) is approximately \(f(x) \cdot \Delta x\). The conditional probability that it fails in \((x, x+\Delta x)\) given that it has lasted at least \(x\) is \(f(x) \cdot \Delta x /[1-F(x)]\). Dividing this by \(\Delta x\) produces the failure rate function: $$ r(x)=\frac{f(x)}{1-F(x)} $$ An increasing failure rate function indicates that older components are increasingly likely to wear out, whereas a decreasing failure rate is evidence of increasing reliability with age. In practice, a "bathtub-shaped" failure is often assumed. a. If \(X\) is exponentially distributed, what is \(r(x)\) ? b. If \(X\) has a Weibull distribution with parameters \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\), what is \(r(x)\) ? For what parameter values will \(r(x)\) be increasing? For what parameter values will \(r(x)\) decrease with \(x\) ? c. Since \(r(x)=-(d / d x) \ln [1-F(x)]\), \(\ln [1-F(x)]=-\int r(x) d x\). Suppose $$ r(x)=\left\\{\begin{array}{cc} \alpha\left(1-\frac{x}{\beta}\right) & 0 \leq x \leq \beta \\ 0 & \text { otherwise } \end{array}\right. $$ so that if a component lasts \(\beta\) hours, it will last forever (while seemingly unreasonable, this model can be used to study just "initial wearout"). What are the cdf and pdf of \(X ?\)

Let \(X\) denote the temperature at which a certain chemical reaction takes place. Suppose that \(X\) has pdf $$ f(x)=\left\\{\begin{array}{cc} \frac{1}{9}\left(4-x^{2}\right) & -1 \leq x \leq 2 \\ 0 & \text { otherwise } \end{array}\right. $$ a. Sketch the graph of \(f(x)\). b. Determine the cdf and sketch it. c. Is 0 the median temperature at which the reaction takes place? If not, is the median temperature smaller or larger than 0 ? d. Suppose this reaction is independently carried out once in each of ten different labs and that the pdf of reaction time in each lab is as given. Let \(Y=\) the number among the ten labs at which the temperature exceeds 1 . What kind of distribution does \(Y\) have? (Give the name and values of any parameters.)

If \(X\) is distributed as \(N(0,1)\), find the pdf of \(|X|\).

The article "Determination of the MTF of Positive Photoresists Using the Monte Carlo Method" (Photographic Sci. Engrg., 1983: 254-260) proposes the exponential distribution with parameter \(\lambda=.93\) as a model for the distribution of a photon's free path length \((\mu \mathrm{m})\) under certain circumstances. Suppose this is the correct model. a. What is the expected path length, and what is the standard deviation of path length? b. What is the probability that path length exceeds \(3.0 ?\) What is the probability that path length is between \(1.0\) and \(3.0\) ? c. What value is exceeded by only \(10 \%\) of all path lengths?

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