/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 107 The following failure time obser... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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The following failure time observations (1,000's of hours) resulted from accelerated life testing of 16 integrated circuit chips of a certain type: \(\begin{array}{rrrrrr}82.8 & 11.6 & 359.5 & 502.5 & 307.8 & 179.7 \\ 242.0 & 26.5 & 244.8 & 304.3 & 379.1 & 212.6 \\ 229.9 & 558.9 & 366.7 & 204.6 & & \end{array}\) Use the corresponding percentiles of the exponential distribution with \(\lambda=1\) to construct a probability plot. Then explain why the plot assesses the plausibility of the sample having been generated from any exponential distribution.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Use ranked data to plot against theoretical percentiles; a linear plot suggests exponential distribution.

Step by step solution

01

Organize the Data

Start by listing the failure time observations in ascending order. This set of data consists of 16 different values that have been observed during testing.
02

Rank the Data

Assign ranks to each data point starting from 1 for the smallest value to 16 for the largest value. This helps in plotting these points against a standard set of values from the exponential distribution.
03

Calculate the Empirical Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)

The nonparametric estimate of the cumulative distribution function is calculated as \(F(i) = \frac{i}{n+1}\), where \(i\) is the rank of the observation and \(n\) is the total number of observations (16 in this case).
04

Obtain Exponential Distribution Percentiles

Using the exponential distribution with parameter \(\lambda = 1\), calculate the theoretical percentiles that correspond to each empirical CDF value obtained in the previous step. The formula for an exponential distribution percentile is given by:\[ Y = -\ln(1-F) \]
05

Prepare the Probability Plot

Plot the observed log failure times on the y-axis and the theoretical exponential percentiles on the x-axis. If the points form a straight line roughly, it indicates that the data could plausibly have been generated by an exponential distribution.
06

Interpret the Probability Plot

Review the plotted data points. If the observations align closely with the line that represents the exponential distribution, it suggests that the failure times are consistent with an exponential distribution.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Exponential Distribution
The exponential distribution is a probability distribution often used to model the time between independent events that happen at a constant average rate. It is characterized by the parameter \( \lambda \), which defines the rate of occurrence of events. For instance, in reliability analysis, it's widely used to model time to failure of electronic components, hence its relevance in the life testing of integrated circuits. The probability density function (PDF) for an exponential distribution is:\[ f(x; \lambda) = \lambda e^{-\lambda x}, \quad x \geq 0 \]where \( \lambda > 0 \) is the rate parameter. This distribution is memoryless, meaning the probability of an event occurring in the future is independent of any past events. This property simplifies real-world modeling of systems that don’t 'remember' their history, making analysis straightforward for tasks like predicting failures.
Empirical Cumulative Distribution Function
The Empirical Cumulative Distribution Function (ECDF) represents the proportion of observations less than or equal to a particular value in a data set. Unlike theoretical CDFs which are derived from a probability distribution, the ECDF is constructed directly from observed data. To compute the ECDF, first, rank the data in increasing order. The ECDF value for each data point is calculated as:\[ F(i) = \frac{i}{n+1} \]where \( i \) is the rank of the observation, and \( n \) is the total number of observations.This function is useful for comparing empirical data to a theoretical distribution and understanding the behavior of the data. In the context of probability plotting, matching the ECDF to the percentiles of a theoretical distribution helps assess how well the sample data follows that assumed distribution.
Accelerated Life Testing
Accelerated life testing (ALT) is a method used to estimate the lifespan or durability of a product by subjecting it to stress conditions that are more severe than normal usage. The primary aim is to collect failure data faster to predict the product's life under typical conditions. For the integrated circuits in the given exercise, accelerated life testing simulates operational conditions such as higher temperature or voltage to induce failures faster. This accelerated process allows statisticians and engineers to gather vital reliability data, which can be used to improve design or predict the failure patterns of the products in regular usage environments. Without waiting for longer times under normal conditions, ALT helps in making strategic decisions regarding product warranty and the timing of maintenance checks, thereby saving time and costs in product development.
Data Ranking
Data ranking is an essential step in statistical analysis where data points are ordered from the smallest to the largest. Ranking is crucial in preparing data for various types of analysis, including probability plotting and calculating empirical cumulative distribution functions. In the context of the given exercise, after listing the failure times in ascending order, each data point receives a rank — the smallest value gets rank 1, and the largest value gets rank equal to the number of observations. This ranking aids in matching the observed data to a theoretical model. By plotting the ranked data against the expected values from a theoretical distribution, say an exponential distribution for this exercise, it's possible to visually assess how well the data fits the model. Proper ranking ensures accurate calculation of the empirical CDF, which is vital for determining the validity of assumed statistical models.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Let \(t=\) the amount of sales tax a retailer owes the government for a certain period. The article "Statistical Sampling in Tax Audits" (Statistics and the Law, 2008: 320-343) proposes modeling the uncertainty in \(t\) by regarding it as a normally distributed random variable with mean value \(\mu\) and standard deviation \(\sigma\) (in the article, these two parameters are estimated from the results of a tax audit involving \(n\) sampled transactions). If \(a\) represents the amount the retailer is assessed, then an underassessment results if \(t>a\) and an overassessment if \(a>t\). We can express this in terms of a loss function, a function that shows zero loss if \(t=a\) but increases as the gap between \(t\) and \(a\) increases. The proposed loss function is \(\mathrm{L}(a, t)=\) \(t-a\) if \(t>a\) and \(=k(a-t)\) if \(t \leq a(k>1\) is suggested to incorporate the idea that overassessment is more serious than underassessment). a. Show that \(a^{*}=\mu+\sigma \Phi^{-1}(1 /(k+1))\) is the value of \(a\) that minimizes the expected loss, where \(\Phi^{-1}\) is the inverse function of the standard normal cdf. b. If \(k=2\) (suggested in the article), \(\mu=\$ 100,000\), and \(\sigma=\$ 10,000\), what is the optimal value of \(a\), and what is the resulting probability of overassessment?

Consider babies born in the "normal" range of 37-43 weeks of gestational age. Extensive data supports the assumption that for such babies born in the United States, birth weight is normally distributed with mean \(3432 \mathrm{~g}\) and standard deviation \(482 \mathrm{~g}\). [The article "Are Babies Normal?" (Amer. Statist., 1999: 298-302) analyzed data from a particular year. A histogram with a sensible choice of class intervals did not look at all normal, but further investigation revealed this was because some hospitals measured weight in grams and others measured to the nearest ounce and then converted to grams. Modifying the class intervals to allow for this gave a histogram that was well described by a normal distribution.] a. What is the probability that the birth weight of a randomly selected baby of this type exceeds \(4000 \mathrm{~g}\) ? Is between 3000 and \(4000 \mathrm{~g}\) ? b. What is the probability that the birth weight of a randomly selected baby of this type is either less than \(2000 \mathrm{~g}\) or greater than \(5000 \mathrm{~g}\) ? c. What is the probability that the birth weight of a randomly selected baby of this type exceeds \(7 \mathrm{lb}\) ? d. How would you characterize the most extreme \(.1 \%\) of all birth weights? e. If \(X\) is a random variable with a normal distribution and \(a\) is a numerical constant \((a \neq 0)\), then \(Y=a X\) also has a normal distribution. Use this to determine the distribution of birth weight expressed in pounds (shape, mean, and standard deviation), and then recalculate the probability from part (c). How does this compare to your previous answer?

Let \(X\) have a standard gamma distribution with \(\alpha=7\). Evaluate the following: a. \(P(X \leq 5)\) b. \(P(X<5)\) c. \(P(X>8)\) d. \(P(3 \leq X \leq 8)\) e. \(P(36)\)

\- Let \(X\) denote the amount of time for which a book on 2-hour reserve at a college library is checked out by a randomly selected student and suppose that \(X\) has density function $$ f(x)=\left\\{\begin{array}{cl} .5 x & 0 \leq x \leq 2 \\ 0 & \text { otherwise } \end{array}\right. $$ Calculate the following probabilities: a. \(P(X \leq 1)\) b. \(P(.5 \leq X \leq 1.5)\)

Let \(X\) be the temperature in \({ }^{\circ} \mathrm{C}\) at which a chemical reaction takes place, and let \(Y\) be the temperature in \({ }^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\) (so \(Y=1.8 X+32\) ). a. If the median of the \(X\) distribution is \(\bar{\mu}\), show that \(1.8 \bar{\mu}+32\) is the median of the \(Y\) distribution. b. How is the 90 th percentile of the \(Y\) distribution related to the 90 th percentile of the \(X\) distribution? Verify your conjecture. c. More generally, if \(Y=a X+b\), how is any particular percentile of the \(Y\) distribution related to the corresponding percentile of the \(X\) distribution?

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