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Each time a component is tested, the trial is a success \((S)\) or failure \((F)\). Suppose the component is tested repeatedly until a success occurs on three consecutive trials. Let \(Y\) denote the number of trials necessary to achieve this. List all outcomes corresponding to the five smallest possible values of \(Y\), and state which \(Y\) value is associated with each one.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Smallest values of \( Y \) are 3 (SSS), 4 (FSSS), 5 (SFSSS, FFSSS), 6 (FFFSSS, FSFSSS, SFFSSS), and 7 (FFFFSSS, FSFFSSS, SFFFSSS, FFSSFSS, SFSFSS).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

The goal is to find the number of trials, denoted by \( Y \), required to achieve three consecutive successes (\( SSS \)) after a series of test trials, where each trial can either be a success (\( S \)) or a failure (\( F \)). We want to list the sequences for the smallest possible values of \( Y \).
02

Find Y=3

The smallest number of trials needed to get three consecutive successes is 3, corresponding to the outcome \( SSS \). Thus, when \( Y=3 \), the sequence is \( SSS \).
03

Find Y=4

For \( Y=4 \), there is one failure before the three consecutive successes. The sequence is \( FSSS \).
04

Find Y=5

If \( Y=5 \), there can be a failure at the first or the second position followed by three successes. The possible sequences are \( FFSSS \) and \( SFSSS \).
05

Find Y=6

For \( Y=6 \), the failures can occur at any of the first three positions before the three consecutive successes. The sequences are \( FFFSSS \), \( FSFSSS \), and \( SFFSSS \).
06

Find Y=7

With \( Y=7 \), failures can precede the three consecutive successes in more varied positions. The sequences for this case are \( FFFFSSS \), \( FSFFSSS \), \( SFFFSSS \), \( FFSSFSS \), and \( SFSFSS \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Random Variables
In probability theory, a random variable is a mathematical tool used to associate numerical outcomes to random processes. Each value of a random variable corresponds to one possible outcome of an experiment, like rolling a dice or flipping a coin. Random variables can be either discrete or continuous. Discrete random variables have distinct, separate values, often integers, like the number of times you roll a die before you get a six. Continuous random variables, on the other hand, can take any value within a range.In the context of our exercise, the random variable is denoted by \( Y \), and it represents the number of trials required to achieve three consecutive successful tests (i.e., \( SSS \)). Each sequence of trials can be quantified by this random variable \( Y \), which helps in understanding the experiment's nature and analyzing its probabilities.
Successive Trials
Successive trials are experiments that are conducted repeatedly, one after another. These trials are independent if the outcome of one trial does not affect the outcome of another. For example, flipping a coin three times are successive trials where each coin flip does not influence the others. In our problem, each trial can result in either a success \((S)\) or a failure \((F)\). The key point is to keep conducting these trials until we achieve a sequence of three consecutive successes \((SSS)\). This concept of successive trials is fundamental in probability theory as it often leads to interesting patterns and distributions.
Combinatorial Analysis
Combinatorial analysis is a branch of mathematics that studies the counting, arrangement, and combination of elements within a set to determine possible outcomes. It plays a crucial role when dealing with probabilities, as it helps in calculating the number of different ways events can occur.In our specific exercise, combinatorial analysis helps us list the sequences for various values of \( Y \). For example, if \( Y=5 \), combinatorial analysis shows that the possible sequences are \( FFSSS \) (two failures, then successes), and \( SFSSS \) (a failure, followed by successes). It gives us a clearer understanding of how trials can be arranged to lead to the desired outcome.
Discrete Probability Distributions
Discrete probability distributions are used to model scenarios where outcomes are distinct and countable. For a discrete random variable, this distribution assigns a probability to each possible value that the variable can take.Consider our random variable \( Y \), representing the number of trials needed to achieve three consecutive successes. The discrete probability distribution for \( Y \) would involve probabilities associated with each possible \( Y \) value, indicating the likelihood of the sequence ending in \( SSS \) after a specific number of trials.This distribution helps in understanding how likely it is to achieve the desired outcome after a certain number of attempts, providing valuable insight into the behavior of our random process.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Consider a disease whose presence can be identified by carrying out a blood test. Let \(p\) denote the probability thar a randomly selected individual has the disease. Suppose \(n\) individuals are independently selected for testing. One way to proceed is to carry out a separate test on each of the \(n\) blood samples. A potentially more economical approach, group testing, was introduced during World War II to identify syphilitic men among army inductees. First, take a part of each blood sample, combine these specimens, and carry out a single test. If no one has the disease, the result will be negative, and only the one test is required. If at least one individual is diseased, the test on the combined sample will yield a positive result, in which case the \(n\) individual tests are then carried out. If \(p=.1\) and \(n=3\), what is the expected number of tests using this procedure? What is the expected number when \(n=5\) ? [The article "Random Multiple-Access Communication and Group Testing" (IEEE Trans. Commun., 1984: 769-774) applied these ideas to a communication system in which the dichotomy was active/ idle user rather than diseased/nondiseased.]

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