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A particular airline has 10 a.m. flights from Chicago to New York, Atlanta, and Los Angeles. Let A denote the event that the New York flight is full and define events \(B\) and \(C\) analogously for the other two flights. Suppose \(P(A)=.6, P(B)=.5\), \(P(C)=.4\) and the three events are independent. What is the probability that a. All three flights are full? That at least one flight is not full? b. Only the New York flight is full? That exactly one of the three flights is full?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. All three full: 0.12; at least one not full: 0.88. b. Only New York full: 0.18; exactly one full: 0.72.

Step by step solution

01

Identifying Probabilities

Given the problem, the probabilities for each event are: \(P(A) = 0.6\), \(P(B) = 0.5\), \(P(C) = 0.4\). All events are independent, meaning we can multiply their probabilities for joint occurrences.
02

Calculating Probability All Flights Are Full

To find the probability that all three flights are full, calculate \(P(A \cap B \cap C)\). Since the events are independent, \(P(A \cap B \cap C) = P(A) \times P(B) \times P(C) = 0.6 \times 0.5 \times 0.4 = 0.12\).
03

Probability of At Least One Flight Not Full

The probability that at least one flight is not full is the complement of all flights being full. Calculate it as \(1 - P(A \cap B \cap C)\). Thus, \(1 - 0.12 = 0.88\).
04

Probability Only New York Flight Is Full

This event can be represented as \(A \cap B^c \cap C^c\) where \(B^c\) and \(C^c\) are the complements of \(B\) and \(C\). Calculate it as \(P(A) \times (1 - P(B)) \times (1 - P(C)) = 0.6 \times 0.5 \times 0.6 = 0.18\).
05

Probability Exactly One Flight Is Full

This event can occur in three cases: New York, Atlanta, or Los Angeles is full, and the other two are not. Compute each as follows: \(A \cap B^c \cap C^c\), \(A^c \cap B \cap C^c\), \(A^c \cap B^c \cap C\). Their probabilities are 0.18, 0.3, and 0.24 respectively. Add them up to find the total probability: \(0.18 + 0.3 + 0.24 = 0.72\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independent Events
In probability theory, independent events are events that do not affect each other's outcomes. This means that the occurrence or non-occurrence of one event does not change the probability of the other events. When we say that three flights' fullness events from Chicago to New York, Atlanta, and Los Angeles are independent, each flight's probability of being full is unaffected by whether the other flights are full.
For example, if the probability of the New York flight being full is 0.6, this probability remains 0.6, irrespective of the status of the Atlanta and Los Angeles flights.
Independent events are crucial for calculating joint probabilities because it allows us to simply multiply the individual probabilities of these events, without needing to worry about potential overlaps or dependencies among them.
Complement Rule
The complement rule is a handy tool in probability for determining the probability that an event does not happen. The complement of an event addresses the opposite scenario. If you know the probability of an event occurring, the probability of it not occurring, or the complement, is easily calculated as 1 minus the probability of the event.
In our context, the event of 'all three flights are full' has a probability of 0.12. The complement of this event, 'at least one flight is not full', can be readily calculated as 1 - 0.12 = 0.88. This means with 88% likelihood at least one flight will have available seats.
Using the complement rule often simplifies problems, especially when calculating probabilities for outcomes involving "at least one" scenarios.
Joint Probability
Joint probability refers to the probability of two or more events happening at the same time. For independent events, as we discussed, the joint probability is the product of their individual probabilities. Thus, for events A, B, and C, the joint probability is expressed as \( P(A \cap B \cap C) \).
In our example, the joint probability of all three flights being full is \( P(A) \times P(B) \times P(C) = 0.6 \times 0.5 \times 0.4 = 0.12 \). This provides us with the chance that all conditions occur simultaneously, which is a crucial concept especially in cases requiring the occurrence of multiple independent requirements.
Understanding joint probability is fundamental when dealing with probabilities that involve a combination of conditions.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation is the process of determining the likelihood of a given event or combination of events. By defining individual and combined probabilities, we can solve complex problems.
For instance, determining the probability that only the New York flight is full involves combining certain probabilities with their complements. This calculation is done by multiplying \( P(A) \), the complement of \( P(B) \) which is \( 1 - P(B) \), and the complement of \( P(C) \), which is \( 1 - P(C) \). The answer is \( 0.6 \times 0.5 \times 0.6 = 0.18 \).
Similarly, calculating the probability that exactly one flight is full involves accounting for multiple scenarios: New York, Atlanta, or Los Angeles being the only full flight. We then sum these probabilities to get the final probability of 0.72.
Understanding how to systematically calculate these probabilities is essential for finding solutions to real-world problems.

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