\(1,30 \%\) of
the time on airline \(\\# …
#
A friend who lives in Los Angeles makes frequent consulting trips to
Washington, D.C., \)50 \%\( of the time she travels on airline # \)1,30 \%\( of
the time on airline \)\\# 2\(, and the remaining \)20 \%\( of the time on airline
#3. For airline #1, flights are late into D.C. \)30 \%\( of the time and late
into L.A. \)10 \%\( of the time. For airline \)\\# 2\(, these percentages are \)25
\%\( and \)20 \%\(, whereas for airline #3 the percentages are \)40 \%\( and \)25
\%$. If we learn that on a particular trip she arrived late at exactly one of
the two destinations, what are the posterior probabilities of having flown on
airlines #1, #2, and #3? Assume that the chance of a late arrival in L.A. is
unaffected by what happens on the flight to D.C. [Hint: From the tip of each
first-generation branch on a tree diagram, draw three second-generation
branches labeled, respectively, 0 late, 1 late, and 2 late.]