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Using the traditional formula, a \(95 \%\) CI for \(p_{1}-p_{2}\) is to be constructed based on equal sample sizes from the two populations. For what value of \(n(=m)\) will the resulting interval have width at most \(.1\) irrespective of the results of the sampling?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Equal sample sizes of at least 385 are needed.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Confidence Interval Formula

The formula for a 95% confidence interval for the difference in proportions \(p_1 - p_2\) is given by:\[ CI = (\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2) \pm z_{0.025} \times \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{m}} \]Here, \(\hat{p}_1\) and \(\hat{p}_2\) are sample proportions, and \(z_{0.025} = 1.96\) is the z-score for 95% confidence.
02

Express the Width Condition

The width of the confidence interval is determined by:\[ 2 \times 1.96 \times \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{m}} \leq 0.1 \]Since we are considering equal sample sizes \(n=m\), it simplifies to:\[ 2 \times 1.96 \times \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1) + \hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n}} \leq 0.1 \]
03

Solve the Inequality for n

Now, solve the inequality:\[ \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1) + \hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n}} \leq \frac{0.1}{2 \times 1.96} \]Square both sides to remove the square root:\[ \frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1) + \hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n} \leq \left(\frac{0.1}{2 \times 1.96}\right)^2 \]\[ n \geq \frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1) + \hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{\left(\frac{0.1}{2 \times 1.96}\right)^2} \]
04

Consider the Maximum Variability Scenario

To ensure the interval width irrespective of results, consider the worst-case scenario for maximum variability:\( \hat{p}_1 = \hat{p}_2 = 0.5 \), since for a proportion \(\hat{p}\), maximum variability occurs at 0.5. Thus:\[ \hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1) = \hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2) = 0.25 \]
05

Compute Minimum n

Substitute the worst-case scenario into the inequality:\[ n \geq \frac{2 \times 0.25}{\left(\frac{0.1}{3.92}\right)^2} \]\[ n \geq \frac{0.5}{\left(\frac{0.1}{3.92}\right)^2} \]This calculates to:\[ n \geq 384.16 \]Rounding up ensures the requirement is satisfied: \( n \geq 385 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Difference in Proportions
When comparing two groups, sometimes we want to know if there is a noticeable difference between their respective proportions. For example, we might wish to see if the proportion of people preferring chocolate ice cream differs from those preferring vanilla in two different regions. This is where the concept of "Difference in Proportions" comes in handy.
To calculate this difference, we subtract one sample proportion (\(\hat{p}_1\)) from another (\(\hat{p}_2\)). For instance, if 60% of one group prefers chocolate and 50% of another group prefers the same, the difference is 10%.
  • Sample proportions are estimates based on observed data.
  • The difference gives insight into how distinct the preferences are between two groups.
Understanding this difference helps in making informed decisions or forming hypotheses about the populations being studied.
Sample Size Determination
Determining the appropriate sample size is crucial for statistical analyses like constructing confidence intervals. In the context of estimating the difference in proportions, sample size impacts the accuracy and reliability of the inferential results.

Sample size calculation ensures that the resulting estimates are both precise and informative. A larger sample size typically yields more reliable estimates.
  • It is computed such that the width of the confidence interval is within a specific margin.
  • In the exercise, equal sample sizes (\(n = m\)) are considered for simplicity.
The minimum required sample size ensures that the results remain significant and wide enough to cover the true difference, maintaining confidence about predictions made.
Statistical Inference
Statistical inference is a method used to make generalizations and reach conclusions about a population based on sample data. When dealing with proportions, inference helps determine if observed differences are due to chance or if they reflect actual differences in the population.

For instance, if in our ice cream preference example, there's a substantial difference in proportions, statistical inference can help determine if this is a meaningful deviation.
  • Provides techniques to construct confidence intervals and perform hypothesis tests.
  • Critical for determining the presence of significant differences in the data.
Using inference, we can assign a degree of certainty to our claims about the population, supported by statistical evidence from our sample.
Maximum Variability
When planning for worst-case scenarios in statistics, considering maximum variability is key. It represents the situation where our sample proportions differ the most, affecting our confidence interval's width. In terms of proportions, this maximum variability occurs at 0.5.

This is because the product \(\hat{p} (1-\hat{p})\), which appears in the formula for the standard error of a proportion, reaches its maximum value when \(\hat{p} = 0.5\).
  • Ensures calculations consider the broadest possible uncertainty.
  • Guides in determining sample size requirements under extreme conditions.
By preparing for maximum variability, researchers can ensure that their confidence intervals remain valid despite the variability inherent in the data.

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