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91Ó°ÊÓ

Seasonal ranges (in hectares) for alligators were monitored on a lake outside Gainesville, Florida, by biologists from the Florida Game and Fish Commission. Five alligators monitored in the spring showed ranges of \(8.0,12.1,8.1,18.2,\) and \(31.7 .\) Four different alligators monitored in the summer showed ranges of \(102.0,81.7,54.7,\) and \(50.7 .\) Estimate the difference between mean spring and summer ranges, with a \(95 \%\) confidence interval. What assumptions did you make?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The difference between the mean ranges is 56.655 hectares, with a 95% confidence interval of [10.702, 102.608] hectares. Assumptions: normality, independence, unequal variances.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the Mean of Spring Ranges

First, sum up the spring ranges: \(8.0 + 12.1 + 8.1 + 18.2 + 31.7 = 78.1\). Since there are 5 spring observations, the mean is: \( \frac{78.1}{5} = 15.62\) hectares.
02

Calculate the Mean of Summer Ranges

Sum up the summer ranges: \(102.0 + 81.7 + 54.7 + 50.7 = 289.1\). Since there are 4 summer observations, the mean is: \( \frac{289.1}{4} = 72.275\) hectares.
03

Calculate the Difference in Means

Subtract the mean spring range from the mean summer range: \(72.275 - 15.62 = 56.655\) hectares.
04

Calculate the Variance and Standard Deviation for Spring Ranges

Find the variance for the spring ranges: First find the differences from the mean, then square them. Calculate the sum of these squares, divide by \( n-1 = 4 \):\[ \text{Variance: } \frac{(8.0-15.62)^2 + (12.1-15.62)^2 + (8.1-15.62)^2 + (18.2-15.62)^2 + (31.7-15.62)^2}{4} = 83.56 \]The standard deviation is the square root of the variance: \( \sqrt{83.56} = 9.144 \) hectares.
05

Calculate the Variance and Standard Deviation for Summer Ranges

Similarly, find the variance for the summer ranges: \[ \text{Variance: } \frac{(102.0-72.275)^2 + (81.7-72.275)^2 + (54.7-72.275)^2 + (50.7-72.275)^2}{3} = 767.856 \]The standard deviation is the square root of the variance: \( \sqrt{767.856} = 27.702 \) hectares.
06

Calculate the Standard Error of the Difference in Means

The standard error (SE) is calculated using the formula:\[SE = \sqrt{\frac{\text{Variance of Spring}}{n_1} + \frac{\text{Variance of Summer}}{n_2}} = \sqrt{\frac{83.56}{5} + \frac{767.856}{4}} = \sqrt{16.712 + 191.964} = \sqrt{208.676} = 14.448 \text{ hectares}\]
07

Find the 95% Confidence Interval for the Difference

To find the confidence interval, use the formula: \[\text{Difference in Means} \pm t \times \text{Standard Error}\]Where \( t \) is the t-score for 95% confidence with \(df \approx 3\; (\text{n-1 for the smaller sample})\), which is approximately 3.182 for a two-tailed test. Therefore:\[56.655 \pm 3.182 \times 14.448\]Calculating the product:\( 3.182 \times 14.448 = 45.953\)The interval is \( [56.655 - 45.953, 56.655 + 45.953] = [10.702, 102.608] \) hectares.
08

State the Assumptions

The assumptions made are: (1) The spring and summer ranges are normally distributed. (2) The samples are independent. (3) The variances are not assumed to be equal (using a separate variance t-test method).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Difference in Means
When comparing data from two different groups, the difference in means helps to understand how these groups vary. In this exercise, the biologists measure alligator ranges during two different seasons: spring and summer. To find the difference in means, first calculate each group’s mean. For spring, sum the ranges and divide by the number of observations: \[ \text{Mean}_{\text{spring}} = \frac{78.1}{5} = 15.62 \text{ hectares} \] For summer: \[ \text{Mean}_{\text{summer}} = \frac{289.1}{4} = 72.275 \text{ hectares} \] Next, subtract the mean of the spring range from the mean of the summer range. \[ \text{Difference in Means} = 72.275 - 15.62 = 56.655 \text{ hectares} \] This measure indicates how much more area alligators range in summer compared to spring, on average.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure of how spread out the values in a data set are. It gives insight into the variability or consistency within a data set.To find the standard deviation, first calculate the variance, which involves finding the average squared deviations from the mean. For example, in the spring range data:1. Calculate each deviation from the mean.2. Square each deviation.3. Find the average of these squared deviations.For variance:\[ \text{Variance}_{\text{spring}} = \frac{(8.0-15.62)^2 + (12.1-15.62)^2 + (8.1-15.62)^2 + (18.2-15.62)^2 + (31.7-15.62)^2}{4} = 83.56 \]Standard deviation is the square root of the variance:\[ \text{Standard Deviation}_{\text{spring}} = \sqrt{83.56} = 9.144 \text{ hectares} \] A smaller standard deviation indicates that data points tend to be closer to the mean, whereas a larger standard deviation shows more spread-out data.
Variance
Variance is a statistical measurement of the spread between numbers in a data set. It tells us how much the individual data points differ from the mean value.Calculating variance involves these steps:* Find the average (mean) of the data set.* Subtract each data point from the mean and square the result.* Sum these squared differences.* Divide by the number of data points minus one (this is known as the degrees of freedom).For summer data:\[ \text{Variance}_{\text{summer}} = \frac{(102.0-72.275)^2 + (81.7-72.275)^2 + (54.7-72.275)^2 + (50.7-72.275)^2}{3} = 767.856 \]Larger variance implies that the numbers in the data set are more spread out from the mean, while a smaller variance indicates they are more clustered.
Assumptions in Statistical Analysis
Statistical analysis often relies on specific assumptions to make interpretations valid. In this exercise, key assumptions include: * **Normal Distribution**: It is assumed that both spring and summer data follow a normal distribution. This implies that most of the data points are concentrated around the mean, with symmetric tails. * **Independence**: The samples of spring and summer observations are assumed to be independent. This means the range measurement of one alligator does not affect another. * **Unequal Variances**: This exercise uses a separate variance t-test, where it acknowledges that the variances of the two groups are not equal. This is vital because it allows for a more flexible analysis when variances differ between the groups. These assumptions aim to ensure the reliability and validity of the statistical conclusions drawn from the data.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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